Texas Winter 2025-2026

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Verdict is in. December was the 5th warmest nationally and 3rd warmest for Texas. I most definitely won't be predicting a 'cold' December next season by default, unless overwhelming evidence otherwise! Too easy to be wrong.

https://i.i%20mgur.com/SoAtQ4S.png

https://i.im%20gur.com/r0wJhDu.png

Note how the list for this month is dominated by 2021-2025 (2022 the exception.)

What site are you using for this?

[Brent]

Yes I'm quite shocked it's the Euro showing that to say the least

Now granted it's in that range everything has fallen apart so far but the Euro???

I liked the OP Euro better when it ended at 240 hrs. It still had some usefulness. Now, the OP Euro and AI are just as whacky as the GFS once you get out in the longrange, really no better than an additional ensemble member.

True the EPS does look better but we've also been down this road before already. It got about a week out and fell apart last time

Forecasting that far out is just not for the faint of heart haha

If we can make it to the weekend with a signal we might have something legit

[TeamPlayersBlue]

So I just saw the 12z Euro. Goodness. I have a run saved from 2022 i think that looked very similar. Would turn me into an ice box here. Literally.
Looking at the EPS, they look good for bringing cold air right down the spine of the Rockies, with a little bit of energy hanging back. Long way to go, but were getting into the 10 day range.

[Ntxw]

Verdict is in. December was the 5th warmest nationally and 3rd warmest for Texas. I most definitely won't be predicting a 'cold' December next season by default, unless overwhelming evidence otherwise! Too easy to be wrong.

https://i.i%20mgur.com/SoAtQ4S.png

https://i.im%20gur.com/r0wJhDu.png

Note how the list for this month is dominated by 2021-2025 (2022 the exception.)

What site are you using for this?

NCEI the official record keeper of all things NOAA.

NCEI Site

[Harp.1]

The current gfs looks nothing like the previous few runs. Flip a six sided coin. I give up.

[Stratton23]

Lol dont sorry about the operational runs this far out , if i had a quarter for every time models have lost the cold at this range, only to bring it back in the medium range, ill be as rich as bill gates, also it looks nothing like the ensemble run so that alone tells me its not much to worry about

[Brent]

The current gfs looks nothing like the previous few runs. Flip a six sided coin. I give up.

This is what we were talking about earlier I don't even see why the operational runs go out 2 weeks when it's impossible to forecast that far out and they change every run. The Euro should just go back to 10 days at this point or it's just gonna be just as stupid as the GFS going out 384 hours

I'll keep an eye on the ensembles and see if we have a trend there... That's all we can do

Also the indicators like the MJO that helps a lot to see if there's even potential

[Stratton23]

Brent already looking at the GEFS, even by day 7 its already much different than the operational run lol

[Stratton23]

00z Euro still has a bitterly cold airmass coming out of central canada, tries to hold back the Arctic air because of SE ridging, but we know how that works out, that is now back to back runs of the Euro showing a very cold airmass entering the US around the 24th

[Brent]

On the GFS at least we are colder in Tulsa than Denver at the end of the run

Lots of potential ahead. Just watch the timeframe around the 25th that's all we can do right now. Op runs ain't gonna nail it at this range no matter how many times they run a day

[wxman57]

Well, the 00Z EC said "what Arctic air in Texas" around the 25th-26th. Instead, it has our highs in the 60s and even 70s that week. Look at the North America 500mb pattern in the 12Z EC run from yesterday and compare it to 00Z. The 00Z run has only a brief period of cross-Polar flow around the 23rd, which is quickly replaced by fast zonal flow. This drives the Arctic air east and southeastward rather than down the Plains. My Canadian and Red River walls may well hold.

[Brent]

Worst snow pack on record in Colorado

I dunno is the MJO even enough to help us

Again the EPS backed off from last run... Like really. Do something different already. I'm tired of it

[snownado]

Well, the 00Z EC said "what Arctic air in Texas" around the 25th-26th. Instead, it has our highs in the 60s and even 70s that week. Look at the North America 500mb pattern in the 12Z EC run from yesterday and compare it to 00Z. The 00Z run has only a brief period of cross-Polar flow around the 23rd, which is quickly replaced by fast zonal flow. This drives the Arctic air east and southeastward rather than down the Plains. My Canadian and Red River walls may well hold.

As nice as it would be, I'm still not convinced we will escape this winter without a polar air outbreak and susbequent snow/ice event.

If I were a betting man, we're going to pay for this unusually warm/dry winter thus far at some point in February...

[TomballEd]

Well, the 00Z EC said "what Arctic air in Texas" around the 25th-26th. Instead, it has our highs in the 60s and even 70s that week. Look at the North America 500mb pattern in the 12Z EC run from yesterday and compare it to 00Z. The 00Z run has only a brief period of cross-Polar flow around the 23rd, which is quickly replaced by fast zonal flow. This drives the Arctic air east and southeastward rather than down the Plains. My Canadian and Red River walls may well hold.

We might get some rain. I'm thinking about the period between cold and warm ENSOs and the possible wildfire issues we could have.

[Brent]

Well the Euro is still trying to get some flakes at least here Saturday. I guess we'll see if that pans out

Kind of pathetic we're still on flake watch in mid January but here we are

[Ntxw]

Cpc is not looking so dry. I do believe the WWB/enso change is about to change up the national trend for moisture. US as whole has been very dry this winter but MJO and background forcing is about to shift. Much more systems will cross the country and the west will finally get some reprieve.

I wouldn't put too much stock on guidance in the very long range, at least until the changes are done. You're just not going to get accurate looks. The ridge will be in Alaska starting tomorrow as heights rise. P7 is coming after 20th then we can start believing models.

Flurry watch with the late weekend trough.

[HockeyTx82]

Well, the 00Z EC said "what Arctic air in Texas" around the 25th-26th. Instead, it has our highs in the 60s and even 70s that week. Look at the North America 500mb pattern in the 12Z EC run from yesterday and compare it to 00Z. The 00Z run has only a brief period of cross-Polar flow around the 23rd, which is quickly replaced by fast zonal flow. This drives the Arctic air east and southeastward rather than down the Plains. My Canadian and Red River walls may well hold.

Well, lock it in. I'll put all my Winter gear and Winter supplies back up after taking them all out yesterday.

[cajungal]

This rollercoaster ride has been driving me crazy!

[gpsnowman]

Well, the 00Z EC said "what Arctic air in Texas" around the 25th-26th. Instead, it has our highs in the 60s and even 70s that week. Look at the North America 500mb pattern in the 12Z EC run from yesterday and compare it to 00Z. The 00Z run has only a brief period of cross-Polar flow around the 23rd, which is quickly replaced by fast zonal flow. This drives the Arctic air east and southeastward rather than down the Plains. My Canadian and Red River walls may well hold.

Well, lock it in. I'll put all my Winter gear and Winter supplies back up after taking them all out yesterday.

This settles it. I am moving to Tallahasse so I can experience winter.

[Brent]

I swear if it snows on the beach again ... Another thing I'm done with