Texas Winter 2016-2017

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Golf... simply put, the -WPO is a ridge over the Bering Strait. A -EPO is a ridge centered on the Alaskan mainland. While both can deliver cold the -EPO tends to give us less modified air from Siberia.

The WPO mixes more Pacific air in....

As long as the PNA stays neutral to negative we are in business.

Our perfect set up FOR winter weather is a severe negative EPO, slightly negative PNA, positive NAO and a negative AO (although we really don't need the latter, it helps lock us in cold for extended periods).

The -PNA helps with the précip from the SW...

[Golf7070]

Golf... simply put, the -WPO is a ridge over the Bering Strait. A -EPO is a ridge centered on the Alaskan mainland. While both can deliver cold the -EPO tends to give us less modified air from Siberia.

The WPO mixes more Pacific air in....

As long as the PNA stays neutral to negative we are in business.

Our perfect set up FOR winter weather is a severe negative EPO, slightly negative PNA, positive NAO and a negative AO (although we really don't need the latter, it helps lock us in cold for extended periods).

The -PNA helps with the précip from the SW...

Thunder, we dont want too strong -pna....too much zonal flow. Imo，without a -nao to combat it, its difficult. Just neutral to slight negative is ideal imo

[Ntxw]

Thunder, we dont want too strong -pna....too much zonal flow. Imo，without a -nao to combat it, its difficult. Just neutral to slight negative is ideal imo

The -PNA and -NAO don't really coexist. -PNA is a southeast ridge which forces +NAO. If there is a +PNA you will likely yield a true -NAO. What we do not want is a +EPO with a -PNA because then you trough from Alaska to off the west coast.

[Brent]

0z Euro DFW

Rain chances begin Friday(actually Friday Night is the wettest timeframe of most of the holiday weekend verbatim), highs in the 50s, temps rise to near 60 Saturday morning. Highs near 70 Saturday, and temps remain near 70 into Christmas morning. Rain chances persist. Christmas Day high in the mid 70s. Rain increases Christmas night into Monday morning. Rain ends Monday with seasonal temps Mon/Tue. Rain next Tuesday Night/Wednesday with temps approaching 70 and then seasonal temps to lead into New Years Eve

[gpsnowman]

Happy Winter Solstice everyone. Shortest day of the year with plenty of winter ahead of us. We deal with fluctuations in Texas each winter, so it will get cold again during January. It'll be nice to see some rain this week.The cold and moisture will meet at some point. Just gimmie one beautiful snowstorm and I will be happy.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

[Portastorm]

Ha, you beat me to it! I was just about to post that. It appears after a brief mild period, our chances for more wintry weather will rise again!

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I think we will see less of a Nina sig in January and February

[srainhoutx]

:uarrow:

Ha, you beat me to it! I was just about to post that. It appears after a brief mild period, our chances for more wintry weather will rise again!

January 2007 has been showing up in the Day 11+ Analogs for several days. While no two patterns are alike, some will recall the January 14th through 18th, 2007 period across Texas and much of the United States.

[wxman57]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C0M8AzWUoAAp7pF?format=jpg&name=large

Looks similar to the current pattern - trof in the west, ridge in the east. Above normal temps for Texas.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Need that cool air to build up there anyway! #PositiveThinking

[ThunderSleetDreams]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C0M8AzWUoAAp7pF?format=jpg&name=large

Looks similar to the current pattern - trof in the west, ridge in the east. Above normal temps for Texas.

Not really.

We are currently in a positive EPO, WPO pattern...

[ThunderSleetDreams]

[ThunderSleetDreams]

:uarrow:

Ha, you beat me to it! I was just about to post that. It appears after a brief mild period, our chances for more wintry weather will rise again!

January 2007 has been showing up in the Day 11+ Analogs for several days. While no two patterns are alike, some will recall the January 14th through 18th, 2007 period across Texas and much of the United States.

That was my first month in Houston after moving from Columbus, OH. I seem to remember a freezing rain event.

[Portastorm]

:uarrow:

Ha, you beat me to it! I was just about to post that. It appears after a brief mild period, our chances for more wintry weather will rise again!

January 2007 has been showing up in the Day 11+ Analogs for several days. While no two patterns are alike, some will recall the January 14th through 18th, 2007 period across Texas and much of the United States.

We had a multi-day winter storm here in Austin with sleet and freezing rain. I remember it well. We had 80 consecutive hours of at/below freezing as well. And you folks in Houston seemed to have it as bad if not worse than south central Texas. Oh my ... that would be kinda fun to have a storm like that again. It's been so long since we've had a real winter storm down here and we have so many new people who have moved here (unfortunately) in the last few years ... they would be in shock!

[wxman57]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C0M8AzWUoAAp7pF?format=jpg&name=large

Looks similar to the current pattern - trof in the west, ridge in the east. Above normal temps for Texas.

Not really.

We are currently in a positive EPO, WPO pattern...
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... amer_2.png

Don't look at the pattern for TODAY, look at the 500mb pattern for Christmas, when it's very warm across Texas. Trof in the west, ridge in the east:

[Ntxw]

How about we negotiate to nudge that trough 500 or so miles east and south. We'll give you two 90 degree days one in Jan and one in Feb. Think of the children!!

[Texas Snowman]

He isn't going to think of the children - he's the Ebenezer Scrooge of the winter weather world!

"My good fellow, are there no heat waves? Are there no droughts? Are there no dust storms? Are there no heatstrokes? Snow? Ice? Cold? White Christmases? Bahhh Humbug!"

We need to find the Ghosts of Winter Weather past, present and future and send them on a little mission to Houston!

Oh to see Heat Miser carrying Portastorm on his shoulder down a wintry street as Portastorm cries out "God bless us all - snowstorms for everyone in Texas!"

Now that's a holiday movie I'd like to see! Where's Charles Dickens when you need him?

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Looks similar to the current pattern - trof in the west, ridge in the east. Above normal temps for Texas.

Not really.

We are currently in a positive EPO, WPO pattern...
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... amer_2.png

Don't look at the pattern for TODAY, look at the 500mb pattern for Christmas, when it's very warm across Texas. Trof in the west, ridge in the east:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _us_18.png

Three things --

1) the SE ridge is forecasted to be much weaker via the long range teleconnections than it is on Christmas Day.
2) We aren't in a healthy -EPO pattern on Christmas (we are in a positive EPO), and for our part of the world, a healthy -EPO would flex on the SE Ridge (especially a weaker one in the forecast)
3) Healthy - PNA is delivering our Christmas trof out West.

A look at the long range teleconnections centered on the first week of January has the NAO relaxing big time from +2-3 SDs to less than 1 sd from normal. Meanwhile, we get a favorable Pacific.

I know you've been doing this much longer than me, and have an incredible wealth of knowledge, but I don't think I'm missing anything here....

[wxman57]

I think the children are looking for some warm weather after this past weekend's Arctic blast. Time for some Christmas heat!