Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Ntxw]

Okay gang. Refresh my memory. I’ve been a member of this board for years. With regard to the GFS, isn’t it fairly unreliable until 1-3 days out? Isn’t that the model that mysteriously makes cold fronts and winter storm systems magically vanish from days 3-5, only to bring them back again on the 1-3 day runs? Don’t we always go through this bummed out scenario because of one or two bad GFS runs, or am I living in a Heat Miser dream?

A lot of what you noted is true! I think all of us have given into the fact the cold is real, and it may get REALLY cold. The GFS and Euro have been notorious for being too warm with any Arctic air masses. Point blank if you pool and dam cold up against the Rockies, history proves over and over again they struggle.

In this case, looking at trend lines, actually all of the models have been too slow with it as they all have shifted faster. ICON and CMC have given us some glimpses of really low, lows and they are showing them more consistently as the frame nears.

We're looking for snow now.

[Itryatgolf]

I believe the 0z euro was a headfake. It should trend more progressive at 12z. I used to put alot of stock in that model, but it lost alot of its accuracy after the upgrade. I know there are alot of moving parts, but I think progression wins out!!

[Itryatgolf]

The trends is what you're looking for. GEFS for Monday morning.

https://i.imgur.com/JupiYCy.gif

The cold is a given. How cold is up for debate. Like you mentioned, the snow search commences!

[Brent]

I believe the 0z euro was a headfake. It should trend more progressive at 12z. I used to put alot of stock in that model, but it lost alot of its accuracy after the upgrade. I know there are alot of moving parts, but I think progression wins out!!

It wouldn't surprise me it's been the trend so far I mean even the storm today yeah it snowed but at one point it was a lot better storm and so was Friday both have trended down already

I mean maybe we'll break the trend now but I'm just saying don't be surprised

[orangeblood]

 https://x.com/RyanMaue/status/1744764076008321466

Yeah, Houston-based meteorologist Matt Lanza is seriously pissed at Maue for his X post from earlier ... the climate emergency one. Lanza believes Maue is unnecessarily inciting panic. I'm guessing this was Maue's next response.

You know, all kidding aside, all of us should be prepared anyhow for any kind of disruption in utilities after what we've experienced over the last several years. Whether it actually happens or not, preparation for a household is just common sense.

Now ... like Ntxw said ... everyone run to HEB for bread and milk!!

Muh... Bunch of model hugging hobbyist who don't know what they are talking about hyping everything!!

https://media.tenor.com/MbuHIRahD4EAAAAM/ummm.gif

Lol love Maue for this...Lanza and other local mets/those in leadership positions were a big part of the problem in Feb 2021. They failed even though they had the tools and models (plus Storm2k ) to get the word out way ahead of time (also claimed it was just "hype" in 2021). So many people were caught unprepared including our own energy providers. Hopefully, lessons were learned and systems adjusted

[orangeblood]

It was colder than this last winter and it’s been almost that cold in January many times since 1985 (quite a few 13s, 14s, and 15s). Climate emergency is overhyping it.

Evan ??

[Itryatgolf]

12z ukmet was interesting today fwiw

[bubba hotep]

I believe the 0z euro was a headfake. It should trend more progressive at 12z. I used to put alot of stock in that model, but it lost alot of its accuracy after the upgrade. I know there are alot of moving parts, but I think progression wins out!!

It's a fool's errand to try and predict what models will do, but we all fall for it. See my earlier comment about the 12z GFS lol

However, the 00z EPS trends supported the OP. So I wouldn't be surprised to see the Euro double down. It's still by far the best model at H5 within 5 days, and a lot of what needs to happen for a Southern Plains storm happens in the first 3 days of the model run out over the Pacific.

[Stratton23]

12z ensembles show extreme cold now, with the GEPS staying cold through the very end of its run, wow!

[Brent]

I believe the 0z euro was a headfake. It should trend more progressive at 12z. I used to put alot of stock in that model, but it lost alot of its accuracy after the upgrade. I know there are alot of moving parts, but I think progression wins out!!

It's a fool's errand to try and predict what models will do, but we all fall for it. See my earlier comment about the 12z GFS lol

However, the 00z EPS trends supported the OP. So I wouldn't be surprised to see the Euro double down. It's still by far the best model at H5 within 5 days, and a lot of what needs to happen for a Southern Plains storm happens in the first 3 days of the model run out over the Pacific.

But I will say this too yeah everyone up here always leans towards the euro. Even the amateurs that I know

[txtwister78]

I believe the 0z euro was a headfake. It should trend more progressive at 12z. I used to put alot of stock in that model, but it lost alot of its accuracy after the upgrade. I know there are alot of moving parts, but I think progression wins out!!

It's a fool's errand to try and predict what models will do, but we all fall for it. See my earlier comment about the 12z GFS lol

However, the 00z EPS trends supported the OP. So I wouldn't be surprised to see the Euro double down. It's still by far the best model at H5 within 5 days, and a lot of what needs to happen for a Southern Plains storm happens in the first 3 days of the model run out over the Pacific.

Yeah it hasn't been just one run with the Euro either and so as we get closer, you look for other models to align with it. FWIW, CMC ensembles have moved that way a bit with its 12z run.

[mmmmsnouts]

Sorry but I’d rather have it be a lot closer to freezing if it’s going to snow. Based on Feb 2022 and Christmas 2022 we know the grid can handle snow or harsh temperatures, but both is a whole other proposition.

[Ralph's Weather]

NWS SHV giving the winter storm some credence. Though the hedge by only showing 20% chance of mix Sunday night. This is a reasonable balance of giving public some heads up while sharing much more in the discussion.

A very strong cold front is expected to move into the region before sunrise
Monday morning. Widespread rain is expected to develop with this
boundary, and quickly change over to a wintry mix as arctic air
quickly builds in behind the front. The trailing 850 mb trough
should provide enough lift to keep the post frontal precip going.
There is the potential for this system to cause impacts across the
region, as temps will quickly fall into the 20s behind the front.
But, as we all know, winter weather is very difficult to forecast in
the south. With this still being 5 days out, we will continue to
monitor this potential event closely, as this forecast could change.
Regardless of the winter weather potential, we are still expecting
the coldest air of the season to move into the region.

[cheezyWXguy]

Sorry but I’d rather have it be a lot closer to freezing if it’s going to snow. Based on Feb 2022 and Christmas 2022 we know the grid can handle snow or harsh temperatures, but both is a whole other proposition.

The 2021 debacle was due to harsh temperatures, not the precip. The difference was the duration. I think a lot of people forget that the snow event occurred at the beginning of week 2 of the event, and the state was nearing peak demand before significant snow even fell. I think the probability of grid failure is lower now than in 2021 but I don’t think it can be ruled out due to the population increase since then and therefore the increased demand on the grid during single digit temperatures, should they occur.

[weatherdude1108]

My family and I are going to Kalahari in Roundrock on Monday, staying overnight for my daughter's birthday, heading back Tuesday. Only 25 minutes away, but not jazzed about the timing.

Guess I'll be wrapping a few plants and wrapping/dripping spigots..

[HockeyTx82]

My family and I are going to Kalahari in Roundrock on Monday, staying overnight for my daughter's birthday, heading back Tuesday. Only 25 minutes away, but not jazzed about the timing.

Guess I'll be wrapping a few plants and wrapping/dripping spigots..

I never understood dripping a spigot. I mean if a waterfall can freeze over how will a little dripping help?

Not asking you. Just asking the group as a whole.

If it gets cold enough does dripping really help?

[Ntxw]

Euro is digging in. It will probably hold serve. It looks like it might be even slower than the 0z run.

[txtwister78]

Euro is digging in. It will probably hold serve. It looks like it might be even slower than the 0z run.

Yup it is.

[Portastorm]

Euro is digging in. It will probably hold serve. It looks like it might be even slower than the 0z run.

Yup it is.

Appears to be coming in even a little colder than the 0z run. That one had temps in AUS at 7 am Sunday to be around freezing. This 12z run shows 28-29 degrees. Looks to be about 5 degrees colder for the Metroplex too.

[aggiecutter]