Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[aggiecutter]

The 0z GFS is also showing an Arctic/polar airmass around 240 hours but shunts it to the Great Lakes and Northeast and keeps the flow over Texas mostly zonal. Heh, if this verifies there's going to be a lot of unhappy campers around here (except for wxman57!).

Yeah ... the entire run pretty much stinks unless you like mild weather. There is some rain for Texas here and there through 16 days.

I can't believe I stayed up for this! Stoopid GFS.

Remember HM's forecast from earlier this week. He thinks the cold air will remain north of Texas for the most part. Looks like the models are buying into his idea.

[amawea]

Yep, even the forecaster out of Springfield Missouri has changed his tune! I have now lost hope of a pattern change mid to late month. This would mean Texas isn't going to go to the cold pattern also.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
541 AM CST SAT JAN 7 2012

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER MILD JANUARY NIGHT WAS OBSERVED OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS. A 200 MILE WIDE BAND OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS MITIGATED TEMPERATURES FROM COOLING OUT OF THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S. MEANWHILE...LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZES PERSISTED AT 5 TO 10
MPH.

TODAYS WEATHER WILL BE FANTASTIC FOR JANUARY. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 50S...UNDER A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST...CAUSING NORTHERLY TRAJECTORIES TO BLOW OFF OF THIS
FEATURE. FORTUNATELY AN UNSEASONABLY MILD AIRMASS RESIDES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AN AREA WITHOUT A SNOW PACK.

AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI ON
SUNDAY...EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE 40S. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE ENTIRE WEEKEND.

ADVANCING INTO NEXT WORK WEEK...THE MILD AND DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM...WHICH CAN BE
VIEWED ON THE WATER VAPOR OVER THE MOUNTAIN WEST...WILL CONTINUE TO
DIG SOUTHWARD WHILE CLOSING OFF SOMEWHERE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.

MODELS HAVE BEEN EXTREMELY CONSISTENT WITH SUGGESTING AN INTERSTATE
20 TRACK WITH THIS CLOSED OFF STORM SYSTEM. THIS WOULD FORCE THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF A SHIELD OF LIGHT RAIN INTO ARKANSAS AND POTENTIALLY
AREAS OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE GFS SHOWS LIGHT RAIN AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 44...WHILE THE
ECMWF CONFINES THE RAINFALL TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS
STATE LINE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST A BLEND OF THESE TWO
SOLUTIONS...THINKING THAT SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL FALL OVER FAR
SOUTHERN MISSOURI...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ONE HALF OF AN INCH...AND THERE ARE NO
CHANCES FOR SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.

FOLLOWING THIS POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN EVENT...A CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL
DROP INTO THE OZARKS...CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO COOL DOWN FOR THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK. AFTERNOON READINGS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE 30S...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S.

JUST WANTED TO BRIEFLY DISCUSS THE LATEST EXTENDED TRENDS FROM
MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS. ARCTIC AIR HAS BEEN CONFINED TO ALASKA AND
THE NORTHERN CANADIAN PROVINCES THE ENTIRE FALL AND WINTER SEASONS.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT ARCTIC AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION WITHIN THE 9 TO 11 DAY TIME
FRAME. AT THIS TIME...THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS THAT OUR ZONAL BELT
OF WESTERLIES WILL BECOME SUFFICIENTLY AMPLIFIED ENOUGH...TO ALLOW A
COLD OUTBREAK FOR THE OZARKS. AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY
COULD COME TO FRUITION.CRAMER

[iorange55]

I still have plenty of faith. It will come down sometime.

As the cool kids might say, "Ain't no thing but a chicken wing."

[Portastorm]

I still have plenty of faith. It will come down sometime.

As the cool kids might say, "Ain't no thing but a chicken wing."

Oh, I do too iorange55. Our longtime friend srainhoutx has written an outstanding summary of the "players" on the board and I am encouraged this morning!

Time to look over the ensembles and figure out how I'm going to foil wxman57's plot to rule the winter with mild temperatures.

[Palmer divide shadow]

Wxman and his warm weather -removed-

[Portastorm]

The Canadian and Euro ensembles do look colder for us (Texas) than the GFS ensembles which in the 6-10 day period lock in the cold over the East. I'm speaking generally here. There is nothing "earth shattering" though. Admittedly, I wasn't focused on looking upstream to see what kind of ridging would develop. Srainhoutx did a great job of outlining that earlier this morning.

Well, on to the 12z op runs and let's see what they have in store for us. We have an active system approaching for late in the weekend which promises heavy rain, storms, snow ... heh, gotta love it! And then, frontal passage by midweek which remains up for debate just how strong it is.

Should be a fun weekend around here, folks. Stop in frequently and take a break from watching the NFL playoffs.

Go Texans! Go Saints!

[wxman57]

Wxman and his warm weather -removed-

My "wishes" appear to be coming true. About to head out on the bikes for a 4-5 hour ride in the 70+ deg temps. Will stop by Discovery Green to watch the ice sculpting. They always seem to pick a warm day for the event.

12Z GFS coming in. Not much change for early next week. Will check the new Euro & Canadian when we get home around 3pm. Definitely watching the Saints tonight. Have been a Saints fan since they started in the 60s.

[gboudx]

My "wishes" appear to be coming true. About to head out on the bikes for a 4-5 hour ride in the 70+ deg temps. Will stop by Discovery Green to watch the ice sculpting. They always seem to pick a warm day for the event.

Enjoy the ride 57! I'll be heading out soon for an hour or so ride on a nature trail. Who Dat!

[Ntxw]

I like what the GFS showing. It had this pattern long range and is now appearing in medium range also, that is very promising. Can't really let yourself down because it halts everything once it hits low res . If what it has is true a cross polar/arctic high is coming. It may not be vodka cold, but it is setting stage for lower heights in North America which means these systems will have colder air to work with come later.

Go Saints!

[Portastorm]

Interesting to note that the 12z GFS for later next week is coming closer to the more "exciting" Canadian solution (colder airmass, upper level energy approaching from the west).

[Ntxw]

Interesting to note that the 12z GFS for later next week is coming closer to the more "exciting" Canadian solution (colder airmass, upper level energy approaching from the west).

We're putting PWC on alert! Better deliver this time the people are getting unrest! We need some PWC voodoo magic to make it happen!

Btw GFS is delivering 1060+ Highs into NW Canada.

[orangeblood]

Interesting to note that the 12z GFS for later next week is coming closer to the more "exciting" Canadian solution (colder airmass, upper level energy approaching from the west).

We're putting PWC on alert! Better deliver this time the people are getting unrest! We need some PWC voodoo magic to make it happen!

Btw GFS is delivering 1060+ Highs into NW Canada.

And then the High just seems to vanish...not buying it!

[Ntxw]

And then the High just seems to vanish...not buying it!

I'm not buying it either. I think it's the model's bias to go zonal for pattern changes and longer range from climo. It winter it's almost never zonal, if it does just means pattern change and never lasts long. The temperature gradient along the Canadian border is impressive I believe the dense cold air will win. There's going to be big troughs/ridges somewhere...

Edit: Canadian suggests there could be some wintry action with frontal passage in parts of Texas next week.

[Rgv20]

And then the High just seems to vanish...not buying it!

I'm not buying it either. I think it's the model's bias to go zonal for pattern changes and longer range from climo. It winter it's almost never zonal, if it does just means pattern change and never lasts long. The temperature gradient along the Canadian border is impressive I believe the dense cold air will win. There's going to be big troughs/ridges somewhere...

0zECMWF Ensembles by day 10 favor a Ridge up in Alaska and a Trough in the NW....I'm with you guys on not buying a zonal solution in the longer range.

[srainhoutx]

Folks may want to look at the 12Z GFS Ensembles for later next week and the longer range Canadian. Interesting days ahead, gang...

[Ntxw]

^ And this is only 5-6 days out



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[ndale]

Did Wxman57 see this gfs ensemble when he was saying this morning that everything he saw showed no cold in the near future. There seems to be some contradictions here, can someone clarify?

[Rgv20]

NWS Brownsville Afternoon discussion about the late week system..

THE NEXT AND POTENTIALLY MORE IMPACTFUL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE AREA THU AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS DEVELOPS THU AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THU NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY AS RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A SLOW
MOVER SO CLEARING WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. IN FACT...THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO SATURDAY. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN
A BIT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS 12Z
RUN...BUT EVEN COOLER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. DUE TO EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER...FREEZING TEMPS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE BRUSH
COUNTRY AND WESTERN ZONES MAY WELL OCCUR NEVERTHELESS.

[iorange55]

The NAM at the end of its run seems to hint at a pretty strong cold front getting ready to come down into the plains.

[Rgv20]

Winter Watches up for the Lubbock and Midland Area.