Texas Winter 2018-2019

[spencer817]

Lol latest 12ZNAM AND rGEM say " not so fast!"

this is going to be a very close call for DFW, the farther NW you are the better for the temps, but the less moisture. I think this type of event can be the one to surprise some honestly. 12z suite just a bit too warm in the afternoon hours but if enough ice can fall it can be modelling the temps too high. It may come down to how early the event can start in your area.

NAM 12z actually puts down 3/10-4/10" over my house before changing to rain, certainly could be enough for temps to stay where they are.

[EnnisTx]

How can DFW be so unlucky? What do we have to do to lift our curse??

Maybe if we sacrifice the beloved wxman57 to a volcano somewhere? He does like it HOT.....

[wxman57]

How can DFW be so unlucky? What do we have to do to lift our curse??

Maybe if we sacrifice the beloved wxman57 to a volcano somewhere? He does like it HOT.....

Yes, a volcano would be nice and warm for me. All I see with the 12Z NAM is rain mixed with sleet mostly west of the D-FW area. Not quite cold enough.

Overnight GFS doesn't even have any freezing temperatures in the D-FW area for the next two weeks.

[Cerlin]

How can DFW be so unlucky? What do we have to do to lift our curse??

Maybe if we sacrifice the beloved wxman57 to a volcano somewhere? He does like it HOT.....

Yes, a volcano would be nice and warm for me. All I see with the 21Z NAM is rain mixed with sleet mostly west of the D-FW area. Not quite cold enough.

Overnight GFS doesn't even have any freezing temperatures in the D-FW area for the next two weeks.

Not terribly worried about the lack of freezing temperatures, especially because it doesn’t look to reach very high temperatures either, and the GFS does have a torch bias sometimes.

[spencer817]

Maybe if we sacrifice the beloved wxman57 to a volcano somewhere? He does like it HOT.....

Yes, a volcano would be nice and warm for me. All I see with the 12Z NAM is rain mixed with sleet mostly west of the D-FW area. Not quite cold enough.

Overnight GFS doesn't even have any freezing temperatures in the D-FW area for the next two weeks.

Not terribly worried about the lack of freezing temperatures, especially because it doesn’t look to reach very high temperatures either, and the GFS does have a torch bias sometimes.

The NAM seems to be the coldest right now unfortunately, the 12z HRRR was 7 degrees warmer than the 12z NAM at 30 hours. I know thats long range for the model, but its certainly not encouraging.

[orangeblood]

Yes, a volcano would be nice and warm for me. All I see with the 21Z NAM is rain mixed with sleet mostly west of the D-FW area. Not quite cold enough.

Overnight GFS doesn't even have any freezing temperatures in the D-FW area for the next two weeks.

Not terribly worried about the lack of freezing temperatures, especially because it doesn’t look to reach very high temperatures either, and the GFS does have a torch bias sometimes.

The NAM seems to be the coldest right now unfortunately, the 12z HRRR was 7 degrees warmer than the 12z NAM at 30 hours. I know thats long range for the model, but its certainly not encouraging.

Don’t discount the RGEM either, coldest of all guidance...have seen it do fairly well under similar circumstances. Still too early to call this one a non-wintry event

[spencer817]

Not terribly worried about the lack of freezing temperatures, especially because it doesn’t look to reach very high temperatures either, and the GFS does have a torch bias sometimes.

The NAM seems to be the coldest right now unfortunately, the 12z HRRR was 7 degrees warmer than the 12z NAM at 30 hours. I know thats long range for the model, but its certainly not encouraging.

Don’t discount the RGEM either, coldest of all guidance...have seen it do fairly well under similar circumstances. Still too early to call this one a non-wintry event

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2018123106/rgem_T2m_scus_55.png

Does the RGEM have the typical biases like its CMC cousin?

[bubba hotep]

The Euro only warms the surface in the northern burbs of DFW from 32 to 34 during the event but there is a nasty warm nose (as would be expected given the vort track). Even if the Euro busted low and kept the northern burbs around 32 or 31, the warm nose would probably keep the rain warm enough that there wouldn't really be any icing issues. Given the lack of deep cold air and the track of the system, there looks to be very little hope for DFW outside of a small window of marginal freezing rain. We need the system to kick out on a much more southerly track to have any chance at all.

[Cerlin]

Why has it become so difficult to get anything wintry in DFW recently? This was supposed to be the best winter in years for that.

[rwfromkansas]

Really depressing another shot is hanging by a thread and likely over. Once this one is done, just warm weather contrary to all the talk two weeks ago.

These sharp northeast storm tracks are frustrating. Did the same in western KS last week. Seems to be the trend this year. Basically means we are hosed in DFW until actual cold can come and stay.

[BrokenGlass]

The Euro only warms the surface in the northern burbs of DFW from 32 to 34 during the event but there is a nasty warm nose (as would be expected given the vort track). Even if the Euro busted low and kept the northern burbs around 32 or 31, the warm nose would probably keep the rain warm enough that there wouldn't really be any icing issues. Given the lack of deep cold air and the track of the system, there looks to be very little hope for DFW outside of a small window of marginal freezing rain. We need the system to kick out on a much more southerly track to have any chance at all.

Dig baby dig


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[bubba hotep]

So far on the 12z GFS, the Northern Stream vort is a bit stronger and taking more of southern track, that might make it a little harder for our system to come out of the SW so amped up. Grasping a straws lol

[bubba hotep]

Meh, not really any positive changes on the 12z GFS for DFW.

[Kennethb]

We've been jilted many times down here in South LA. True winter is just beginning so be patient.

[Jarodm12]

Cmc nam and icon hit me hard in southern Oklahoma!

[orangeblood]

Meh, not really any positive changes on the 12z GFS for DFW.

CMC is taking the more southerly route...this system is becoming deeper by the run and bowling bowl lows are difficult to forecast track. Still way too early!!!

[OKMet83]

OK Guys and Gals... I have remained calm and said nothing until this morning but it's becoming more apparent this system WILL mean business for areas from OKC TO DFW (Potentially even into the Austin Metro) this has all the markings of a CLASSIC Ice Storm esp for portions of Southern OK into Northern/NC TX... It's not time to panic and worry about generators just yet but I would be thinking about prepping for what could be a significant winter storm.. GFS Farther North this morning.. CMC on the south end REGARDLESS models are in agreement a sig event could be coming! Just need to get the fine details worked out... Stay tuned

[bubba hotep]

It looks like there will be several rain events over the next two weeks for DFW, so things won't be a total bore. Also, the New Mexico and S. Colorado mountains look to get hammered with snow! Any significant cold looks to be mid-Jan or beyond as the Strat PV breakdown initially sends all the cold to the others side of the Pond in Europe and Russia. However, we should start to see signs of change across the Pacific and that will help us pin down the timing for the return of colder weather to N. America. We probably won't have any winter wx to track during the 1st half of January (after Wednesday) but there will be lots of weather to go over, esp. for those that enjoy looking at the long range stuff.

[OKMet83]

CMC, GFS both increased total qpf amounts thus higher snow/ice... OK Hammered with Snow on both models nearing a foot... CMC Shows an Inch of Ice for Central TX

[wxman57]

Why has it become so difficult to get anything wintry in DFW recently? This was supposed to be the best winter in years for that.

The pattern is good for getting precip, you just need some colder air to move out of Canada so the storm systems have something to work with to produce snow.