Texas Winter 2023-2024

[orangeblood]

Sorry but I’d rather have it be a lot closer to freezing if it’s going to snow. Based on Feb 2022 and Christmas 2022 we know the grid can handle snow or harsh temperatures, but both is a whole other proposition.

The 2021 debacle was due to harsh temperatures, not the precip. The difference was the duration. I think a lot of people forget that the snow event occurred at the beginning of week 2 of the event, and the state was nearing peak demand before significant snow even fell. I think the probability of grid failure is lower now than in 2021 but I don’t think it can be ruled out due to the population increase since then and therefore the increased demand on the grid during single digit temperatures, should they occur.

Huge factor in Feb 2021 was the non-existent wind at the early onset of the big freeze, once those winds slowed down and ice started accumulating on the blades they were worthless. Once the wind power was shut down, it was a domino effect into the Nat Gas compressor stations that relied on them particularly in west Texas. I'm a little more optimistic this time around, looking at the wind velocity forecast compared to Feb 2021. Monday appears ok but maybe Tuesday morning could become an issue

Monday


Tuesday

[txtwister78]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/RNnnBy5/Snow.png [/url]

They actually did, but his overall point nonetheless is the most important.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Yeah, Houston-based meteorologist Matt Lanza is seriously pissed at Maue for his X post from earlier ... the climate emergency one. Lanza believes Maue is unnecessarily inciting panic. I'm guessing this was Maue's next response.

You know, all kidding aside, all of us should be prepared anyhow for any kind of disruption in utilities after what we've experienced over the last several years. Whether it actually happens or not, preparation for a household is just common sense.

Now ... like Ntxw said ... everyone run to HEB for bread and milk!!

Muh... Bunch of model hugging hobbyist who don't know what they are talking about hyping everything!!

https://media.tenor.com/MbuHIRahD4EAAAAM/ummm.gif

Lol love Maue for this...Lanza and other local mets/those in leadership positions were a big part of the problem in Feb 2021. They failed even though they had the tools and models (plus Storm2k ) to get the word out way ahead of time (also claimed it was just "hype" in 2021). So many people were caught unprepared including our own energy providers. Hopefully, lessons were learned and systems adjusted

I agree with Lanza in this case. Maue doesnt believe in many of the reasons why climate is different today and he's using sarcasm towards a serious problem Texas has.
Also not sure how Lanza was a part of the problem in '21. The problem lies with ERCOT and lack of preparedness.

With that said, we're about to find out if they have made the proper upgrades.

[Stratton23]

looks like the 12z euro tries to hang back the TPV like what the GFS is showing

[Itryatgolf]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/RNnnBy5/Snow.png [/url]

They actually did, but his overall point nonetheless is the most important.

Would you be so kind to post the 150hr and 156hr of 12z euro please? Thanks in advance

[wxman57]

I plotted all the model forecasts for Houston, minus the 12Z Canadian ensembles. That run is still coming in. No EC ensembles yet, either. Quite a difference. Canadian has a history of being wildly cold with previous outbreaks in Houston (2021/2022). Suffice it to say that until the cold air reaches the northern U.S. on Saturday we won't have any confidence in the forecast. Perhaps even by Sunday morning.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Sorry but I’d rather have it be a lot closer to freezing if it’s going to snow. Based on Feb 2022 and Christmas 2022 we know the grid can handle snow or harsh temperatures, but both is a whole other proposition.

The 2021 debacle was due to harsh temperatures, not the precip. The difference was the duration. I think a lot of people forget that the snow event occurred at the beginning of week 2 of the event, and the state was nearing peak demand before significant snow even fell. I think the probability of grid failure is lower now than in 2021 but I don’t think it can be ruled out due to the population increase since then and therefore the increased demand on the grid during single digit temperatures, should they occur.

Huge factor in Feb 2021 was the non-existent wind at the early onset of the big freeze, once those winds slowed down and ice started accumulating on the blades they were worthless. Once the wind power was shut down, it was a domino effect into the Nat Gas compressor stations that relied on them particularly in west Texas. I'm a little more optimistic this time around, looking at the wind velocity forecast compared to Feb 2021. Monday appears ok but maybe Tuesday morning could become an issue

Well, usually when a HP settles in, winds die down. Pretty normal. We are rocking all kinds of wind turbines here in CO with zero power issues.

[txtwister78]

Muh... Bunch of model hugging hobbyist who don't know what they are talking about hyping everything!!

https://media.tenor.com/MbuHIRahD4EAAAAM/ummm.gif

Lol love Maue for this...Lanza and other local mets/those in leadership positions were a big part of the problem in Feb 2021. They failed even though they had the tools and models (plus Storm2k ) to get the word out way ahead of time (also claimed it was just "hype" in 2021). So many people were caught unprepared including our own energy providers. Hopefully, lessons were learned and systems adjusted

I agree with Lanza in this case. Maue doesnt believe in many of the reasons why climate is different today and he's using sarcasm towards a serious problem Texas has.
Also not sure how Lanza was a part of the problem in '21. The problem lies with ERCOT and lack of preparedness.

With that said, we're about to find out if they have made the proper upgrades.

Not that I care to get into a back and forth over personalities, egos and agendas/narratives. I'm sure folks can save that for another forum speaking only for myself, however I've seen it go the other way as well from the individual you mention agreeing with. I personally think Maue's point is if we're going to cherry pick events as it relates to certain weather extremes that align only with your beliefs via climate, but then ignore others because they don't (cites failures of 2021 and what he believes may be coming as examples), then are you in effect "downplaying" for an agenda? Not saying who is right or who is wrong. That's my overall read of it. I could be wrong of course but I'll leave it at that since I was the one who posted the tweet or whatever the hell you call it now. Lol

I can assure you I didn't post it for the narratives. I think to Porta's point preparedness is a good thing regardless and hopefully folks take that point seriously.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Lol love Maue for this...Lanza and other local mets/those in leadership positions were a big part of the problem in Feb 2021. They failed even though they had the tools and models (plus Storm2k ) to get the word out way ahead of time (also claimed it was just "hype" in 2021). So many people were caught unprepared including our own energy providers. Hopefully, lessons were learned and systems adjusted

I agree with Lanza in this case. Maue doesnt believe in many of the reasons why climate is different today and he's using sarcasm towards a serious problem Texas has.
Also not sure how Lanza was a part of the problem in '21. The problem lies with ERCOT and lack of preparedness.

With that said, we're about to find out if they have made the proper upgrades.

Not that I care to get into a back and forth over personalities, egos and agendas/narratives. I'm sure folks can save that for another forum speaking only for myself, however I've seen it go the other way as well from the individual you mention agreeing with. I personally think Maue's point is if we're going to cherry pick events as it relates to certain weather extremes that align only with your beliefs via climate, but then ignore others because they don't (cites failures of 2021 and what he believes may be coming as examples), then are you in effect "downplaying" for an agenda? Not saying who is right or who is wrong. That's my overall read of it. I could be wrong of course but I'll leave it at that since I was the one who posted the tweet or whatever the hell you call it now. Lol

I can assure you I didn't post it for the narratives. I think to Porta's point preparedness is a good thing regardless and hopefully folks take that point seriously.

Good post.

[Stratton23]

EPS 12z growing in support of its OP run for a winter storm

[JayDT]

EPS 12z growing in support of its OP run for a winter storm

Cmon King Euro! Reclaim your throne.

[cheezyWXguy]

Sorry but I’d rather have it be a lot closer to freezing if it’s going to snow. Based on Feb 2022 and Christmas 2022 we know the grid can handle snow or harsh temperatures, but both is a whole other proposition.

The 2021 debacle was due to harsh temperatures, not the precip. The difference was the duration. I think a lot of people forget that the snow event occurred at the beginning of week 2 of the event, and the state was nearing peak demand before significant snow even fell. I think the probability of grid failure is lower now than in 2021 but I don’t think it can be ruled out due to the population increase since then and therefore the increased demand on the grid during single digit temperatures, should they occur.

Huge factor in Feb 2021 was the non-existent wind at the early onset of the big freeze, once those winds slowed down and ice started accumulating on the blades they were worthless. Once the wind power was shut down, it was a domino effect into the Nat Gas compressor stations that relied on them particularly in west Texas. I'm a little more optimistic this time around, looking at the wind velocity forecast compared to Feb 2021. Monday appears ok but maybe Tuesday morning could become an issue

Monday
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/scentus/wnd10m_stream_mph/1704801600/1705341600-U4txbpZpp9Q.png

Tuesday
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/scentus/wnd10m_stream_mph/1704801600/1705406400-ay8aNDWdjCE.png

Good point about ice accumulation on the wind blades, I was focusing more on the impacts to downstream power infrastructure like power lines which didn’t didn’t take much of a hit when the precip set in, due to it mostly being snow.

[bubba hotep]

EPS 12z growing in support of its OP run for a winter storm

Yeah, the OP was a step in the wrong direction, but the signal continues to grow on the EPS.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Lol love Maue for this...Lanza and other local mets/those in leadership positions were a big part of the problem in Feb 2021. They failed even though they had the tools and models (plus Storm2k ) to get the word out way ahead of time (also claimed it was just "hype" in 2021). So many people were caught unprepared including our own energy providers. Hopefully, lessons were learned and systems adjusted

I agree with Lanza in this case. Maue doesnt believe in many of the reasons why climate is different today and he's using sarcasm towards a serious problem Texas has.
Also not sure how Lanza was a part of the problem in '21. The problem lies with ERCOT and lack of preparedness.

With that said, we're about to find out if they have made the proper upgrades.

Not that I care to get into a back and forth over personalities, egos and agendas/narratives. I'm sure folks can save that for another forum speaking only for myself, however I've seen it go the other way as well from the individual you mention agreeing with. I personally think Maue's point is if we're going to cherry pick events as it relates to certain weather extremes that align only with our beliefs, but then ignore others because they don't (cites failures of 2021 and what he believes may be coming as examples), then are you in effect "downplaying" for an agenda? Not saying who is right or who is wrong. That's my overall read of it. I could be wrong of course but I'll leave it at that since I was the one who posted the tweet or whatever the hell you call it now. Lol

I can assure you I didn't post it for the narratives. I think to Porta's point preparedness is a good thing regardless and hopefully folks take that point seriously.

I totally agree. Listen, I have my own theories on weather/climate, one being, no storm we've witnessed is because of climate change. Up for debate some other day, just saying I get why Lanza is upset because the agenda Maue pushes is at times not fact or science based at all.

This coming cold is no joke. Many people died in Uri. It's not funny. I myself had to leave for a friends from my home because the temp in my house fell too hard, despite having a gas fireplace. I'm lucky, many others aren't Very serious situation approaching based on the fact our grid failed horribly in '21

[weatherdude1108]

My family and I are going to Kalahari in Roundrock on Monday, staying overnight for my daughter's birthday, heading back Tuesday. Only 25 minutes away, but not jazzed about the timing.

Guess I'll be wrapping a few plants and wrapping/dripping spigots..

I never understood dripping a spigot. I mean if a waterfall can freeze over how will a little dripping help?

Not asking you. Just asking the group as a whole.

If it gets cold enough does dripping really help?

In my case, one of my bibs in built into the wall on the north side of the house. When temps were in the teens, I started by covering it in a styrofoam bib protector you can get at Lowe's or Home Depot. Later when I uncovered it and checked it, the faucet turned, but it wouldn't flow. Had to pour warm' water on it for several seconds before it started flowing.

The next time it was in the teens, I put a layer of towels between the house and hose bib seal. The edge still froze. So the next time in the infamous 2021 freeze, I decided to wrap it in towels and put some duct tape over the towels below the faucet (for the water to slide over so it wouldn't accumulate on towels). I set a little drip, and that worked. It got down to 6 degrees here with 8 inches of snow. Probably doesn't work for everyone, but mine gets the brunt of the arctic chill. My other hose bib is out in back on south side and also let drip a little, but I have never had an issue with that one.

My neighbor just covered his in 2021, and his was fine. His wall faces east. My other neighbor dripped hers and was fine. Hers faces west. I did both.lol

[wxman57]

12Z Canadian ensembles now in. Low of 29 in Houston Wed vs. 9 on operational. Ensembles are not nearly as cold. Much more realistic. This is no "Uri". For Austin-San Antonio-Houston, just a dry cold for a couple of days. D-FW area will have icing issues. By Thursday, temps well above freezing.

[Stratton23]

Ensembles are trending colder, that 29 will likely be going down even more, precipitation is on the table for the state, we will see

[Ntxw]

Ensembles are trending colder, that 29 will likely be going down even more

29 for a high maybe?

[Stratton23]

Ntwx probably, even ensembles can underestimate the cold airmass, thats why im taking a blend of the ICON/ CMC solutions, sub freezing highs down here look probable for a couple of days, factor in snow/ ice potential and it could be much colder, once the NAM comes into range it will make things much clearer, still think ensemble’s are too warm

[cstrunk]

My family and I are going to Kalahari in Roundrock on Monday, staying overnight for my daughter's birthday, heading back Tuesday. Only 25 minutes away, but not jazzed about the timing.

Guess I'll be wrapping a few plants and wrapping/dripping spigots..

I never understood dripping a spigot. I mean if a waterfall can freeze over how will a little dripping help?

Not asking you. Just asking the group as a whole.

If it gets cold enough does dripping really help?

In my case, one of my bibs in built into the wall on the north side of the house. When temps were in the teens, I started by covering it in a styrofoam bib protector you can get at Lowe's or Home Depot. Later when I uncovered it and checked it, the faucet turned, but it wouldn't flow. Had to pour warm' water on it for several seconds before it started flowing.

The next time it was in the teens, I put a layer of towels between the house and hose bib seal. The edge still froze. So the next time in the infamous 2021 freeze, I decided to wrap it in towels and put some duct tape over the towels below the faucet (for the water to slide over so it wouldn't accumulate on towels). I set a little drip, and that worked. It got down to 6 degrees here with 8 inches of snow. Probably doesn't work for everyone, but mine gets the brunt of the arctic chill. My other hose bib is out in back on south side and also let drip a little, but I have never had an issue with that one.

My neighbor just covered his in 2021, and his was fine. His wall faces east. My other neighbor dripped hers and was fine. Hers faces west. I did both.lol

I've never dripped an outdoor spigot (not that you shouldn't!). But I do drip indoor faucets when temps reach the mid-teens. Running water doesn't freeze as quickly as still water. Plus when you have a small amount of water moving through the pipe, you are moving slightly warmer water through the sections that are prone to freezing, instead of leaving water in one spot allowing it to freeze.

For outdoor spigots, just insulate them as much as you can with styrofoam and towels/blankets, if necessary.