Texas Winter 2013-2014

[ronyan]

Thanks for the welcome Portastorm and responses from Ntxw. I've been checking on this forum during major events, mostly during winter weather and hurricanes and recognize most of the names here. My field of study is in computer science but I have a strong interest in all things weather related and was considering going to OU for meteorology.

I didn't realize that they had the technology in the 40's to track those indices. Can someone give a link to where you can find the current EPO NAO data and forecasts. I saw a post a few pages back with a chart showing +AO and future projections by various models.

[Rgv20]

0zGFS forecast for day 10.......Look at that Ridging in the Gulf of Alaska!

[Portastorm]

Thanks for the welcome Portastorm and responses from Ntxw. I've been checking on this forum during major events, mostly during winter weather and hurricanes and recognize most of the names here. My field of study is in computer science but I have a strong interest in all things weather related and was considering going to OU for meteorology.

I didn't realize that they had the technology in the 40's to track those indices. Can someone give a link to where you can find the current EPO NAO data and forecasts. I saw a post a few pages back with a chart showing +AO and future projections by various models.

Sure, you bet. Here's a link:

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/

Go to the bottom section of the webpage.

[ravyrn]

Brrrrrrr! 0Z GFS says ETX not warming up in next 8 days. Struggling to break 50F for highs in the 0Z GFS forecast! I love cold weather, but I wouldn't be opposed to a brief reprieve, before temps drop back down and the white stuff falls!

It would seem Portastorm or NTXW need to state that this will be the winter to remember so that I may update my sig!

[CaptinCrunch]

Has anyone looked at the kind of winters we have had with -EPOs in the past, further than the few mentioned up thread? What were 1983 and 1989? What about other frigid winters? How many of those had -EPOs?

1983, 1989 were mega -EPO's. 1983 was off the charts negative (for the great outbreak periods). 1989 was the second strongest negative, both occurred during a +AO. If you have been following my posts the -EPO tank years feature strong warm SST anomalies in the gulf of Alaska, of which this year we have beaten 1989 since 1950.

There is no EPO data going back to 1899 but SST reanalysis suggest the gulf of Alaska region had a warm pool likely stronger than that of 1989 which suggest a big -EPO was likely

http://i42.tinypic.com/fksjtf.png

If we look closer at 1983 and 89 here is what you will see.

•Most consecutive hours below freezing: 295 (7 am Dec 18 - 2 pm Dec 30, 1983)
Number of freezes in a month: ◾December - 21 (1989, 1963)
The average temperature for December 1983 was 34.8
The average temperature for December 1989 was 39.0

However both of those winters 83/84 and 89/90 were fairly lack luster for winter precip. The Winter of 83/84 stayed cold through March with much below average temps, while the Winter of 89/90 ended up as average after a very cold December.

The next coldest December was 2000 with a average of 39.4 but again after Dec Jan-Feb was average.

[bqhurricane]

Well, they are showing the year wihout Santa Claus tonight on ABC so at least heatmeiser can puff his chest out a bit. Looks like he'll get frozen back underground the rest of the month.

[wxman57]

With all this talk of cold I had to bring out my friend, the sun, to warm things up today.

Unfortunately, he's having a hard time heating up Texas with all that cold advection...

[Tireman4]

With all this talk of cold I had to bring out my friend, the sun, to warm things up today.

Unfortunately, he's having a hard time heating up Texas with all that cold advection...

Ha ha....cold, frigid and loving it. Thank you Mother Nature. You rock.

[orangeblood]

Models continue to lean towards a very below average December across a massive area of North America including Texas, even extending into January. Here is the latest CFS temperature forecast over the next 45 days.



Also, check out where all of the cold air is forecast to be over the next 45 days. Compared to the last few years, it's finally setting up shop on our side of the Globe

[Ntxw]

With all this talk of cold I had to bring out my friend, the sun, to warm things up today.

Unfortunately, he's having a hard time heating up Texas with all that cold advection...

With all this talk of SSW what you need sir is a Sudden Surface Warming event!

Let this map warm you in spirit, though it's nowhere near your location fortunately for us

[Ntxw]

It would seem Portastorm or NTXW need to state that this will be the winter to remember so that I may update my sig!

Don't know about winter to remember, but thus far it is the winter of wxman57's dissatisfaction, disheartened, and eventually depression once we are done with it!

[Ntxw]

For those wondering what the weather pattern will be likely for Christmas, as mentioned by many already there is a good consensus that there will be ridging off both coasts. Areas most likely to see mild conditions will be those nearest to the ridges along the coasts based on the ensemble trends. This means a very cold Christmas week centered in the middle of the country. As for individual systems there is just no way to see that far out and will need to be fine tuned.

5 days means centered that week from the EC ensembles, GFS ens very similar



Disclaimer: This is a long range 5 day means, it should only be used as a general guidance for the upper pattern which there is some skill. Individual cold shots or systems is not concluded and does not warrant a definitive forecast for any given day

[orangeblood]

Unless the Pacific Ridge pokes up into Alaska, I wouldn't expect this outbreak to be anything historic. This is due to flow coming out of Alaska where temps have been near or above normal, instead of straight out of the Arctic like this last outbreak. Cold will build in Canada but I wouldn't expect any 83 or 89 type stuff.

[BigB0882]

I wish that ridge would move off of the East coast. I am hoping for a cold Christmas and a possible White Christmas in NYC.

[orangeblood]

I wish that ridge would move off of the East coast. I am hoping for a cold Christmas and a possible White Christmas in NYC.

Pay attention to the NAO, probably need it to start crashing in order to get a sustained snow cover for the Holidays up there.

[orangeblood]

Just for entertainment purposes only, the Christmas Eve morning forecast brought to you by this mornings GFS run.....

[KatDaddy]

I will be just N of Ft Worth in Roanoke for the Christmas holiday. Leaving Houston in the afternoon on the 20th. I am watching the long range models which continue to advertise more cold temps dropping S.

[PTrackerLA]

1050mb High over SW Wyoming! Holy smokes. After backing away in the 18z, 00z, and 06z runs the 12z GFS is back showing a massive arctic outbreak for the center of the nation down to gulf coast for Christmas. I couldn't think of a more fitting time of year .

[dhweather]

Wow, a 1050mb high centered over Wyoming. I think I'll wait several more runs before I buy into this one.

[gpsnowman]

Lots of melting today but there should be plenty of ice remaining on Wednesday on the ground, roofs, etc. making seven consecutive days with ice on the surfaces. Amazing for any point in winter. Also beware of ice chunks falling from thawing trees. Found out the hard way. Those things hurt when they hit your face.