Texas Winter 2014-2015

[SouthernMet]

Imo, right after the sun goes down the cf will accelerate & you guys will see what im talking about.

[Ralph's Weather]

Word to the wise...the guidance is flip flopping every 6 hours and that should continue right up to the event that is expected Tomorrow into New Year's Day. Case in point, the latest storm track shifted 600 miles to the S today. Yesterday afternoon the low track was expected to be across NW New Mexico into Southern Colorado. This afternoon the low track has shifted to SE Arizona to Northern Mexico. Time to start watching the radar and satellite imagery and surface temperatures upstream....

Yes sir. The AFDs out of Lubbock and Amarillo this afternoon but reference the fact that guidance is now all over the place on what happens with the upper low and how quickly it ejects out into the central CONUS.

I am as confident as ever about temps being cold enough west of I-35 (a have to be further west than that south of NTX) and north of I-20 through the morning NYD. It is all about the precip onset timing now as the earlier the precip arrives the more time it will have to accumulate.

[Ntxw]

Amarillo had a high today of 12F, it's back down to 9F now. 12z GFS had a high today of 19F and subsequent runs prior had highs in the 20s. A couple degrees make a big difference when the precip falls. Even between freezing or just below 30. 27-30F is when roads start becoming effected. Especially at a time when you have crazy party goers and unfortunately drunk people.

[Tcu101]

Can we look upstream at the pressure rises (say Amarillo , Oklahoma ) areas for any indication of this air mass pushing south and east more? Most of the stations appear to have leveled off or actually declined last few hours ??

[SouthernMet]

NW tx is busting by 10-15 degrees atm, if fort worth were to bust by just 2-3 degrees thursday morning/thursday this would be a whole new story... Doesn't look to far off now does it?

Decatur has dropped from 41 to 35 in 20 minutes, it's coming. http://www.wunderground.com/personal-we ... T2#history

[gboudx]

Latest update from Steve McCauley:

Those of us in the eastern half of north Texas have been enjoying a sunny morning and early afternoon, but clouds are encroaching from the west and will overspread the rest of the area this afternoon and tonight. Precipitation, however, will stay well to the west of the Metroplex for tonight into tomorrow.
A wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain and just plain cold rain will develop to our west and southwest tomorrow night and move into the Metroplex predawn Thursday. It "should" transition to a cold rain for most of the area on New Year's Day, but clearly, this is going to be a close call, so stay tuned for updates.
There will be - at the very least - a relatively brief window of opportunity for ice in the Metroplex. If it stays brief, then we should not have too many problems. BUT ... if temperatures fail to warm up as expected on New Year's Day, then this would be a total game changer since this precipitation event will be a 100% coverage.

[gpsnowman]

My goodness, this weather has thrown many curveballs at all of us. Like the Twins versus Koufax in the 65 Word Series. Don't think I have seen such a close call, down to the wire weather system as this. The temps in Dallas were nowhere close to predicted lows and the cloud cover border has been near the Metroplex all day. Temps have been close to forecasted or busted all over the state it seems. Just whacky. Wait and see approach. Where is Ntwx?

Nevermind, he just posted.

[Ntxw]

My goodness, this weather has thrown many curveballs at all of us. Like the Twins versus Koufax in the 65 Word Series. Don't think I have seen such a close call, down to the wire weather system as this. The temps in Dallas were nowhere close to predicted lows and the cloud cover border has been near the Metroplex all day. Temps have been close to forecasted or busted all over the state it seems. Just whacky. Wait and see approach. Where is Ntwx?

Nevermind, he just posted.

It's close, I think it will stay a little colder than they are expecting. I would've at least considered putting up winter weather advisories for areas along I-20 and N/NE just as a precaution given the time frame. There's enough qpf (both GFS and Euro are 1.3 inches of qpf) and even 850mb temps are close 2-3C isn't that warm. GFS is expecting aloft to get up to 5-7C though.

[SouthernMet]

My pessimistic said does note this though.. The core of the Cold Air Advection still looks to stay west of I-35, just looking at recent trends & upstream temps.. Its really not all that cold atm looking due north of DFW (ardmore/shawnee) as opposed to the temps out west & northwest.

[Portastorm]

I don't know if this will be the case further east in Texas ... but Lubbock is sitting at 17 degrees at 5 pm. The 12z GFS said they'd be at 24 degrees at 6 p.m. and the 18z has them at 22 at 6 pm. Don't think the temp there is going to rise at all now. Will the GFS be that far off further east? That's a 5-7 degree bust which could make a huge difference when surface temps get closer to freezing. Just something which raises an eyebrow.

[Ralph's Weather]

:uarrow: NW tx is busting by 10-15 degrees atm, if fort worth were to bust by just 2-3 degrees thursday morning/thursday this would be a whole new story... Doesn't look to far off now does it?

Nope, it is going how many of us thought it would. Now we get to wait and if the busting trend continues around here, all we need is a couple degrees to cause major issues over a much wider area than currently forecasted.

[Ntxw]

I don't know if this will be the case further east in Texas ... but Lubbock is sitting at 17 degrees at 5 pm. The 12z GFS said they'd be at 24 degrees at 6 p.m. and the 18z has them at 22 at 6 pm. Don't think the temp there is going to rise at all now. Will the GFS be that far off further east? That's a 5-7 degree bust which could make a huge difference when surface temps get closer to freezing. Just something which raises an eyebrow.

To be fair it's easier to get colder in the high plains and plateau's of the western part of the state as it's all down hill. Eastern half it's not as easy and things happen much slower. But there will be other things to consider such as dynamics at play such as when convective precip occurs what will happen to the air column? Will a dry layer allow wet bulbing or will warmer air aloft be taken down?

[ndale]

I don't know if this will be the case further east in Texas ... but Lubbock is sitting at 17 degrees at 5 pm. The 12z GFS said they'd be at 24 degrees at 6 p.m. and the 18z has them at 22 at 6 pm. Don't think the temp there is going to rise at all now. Will the GFS be that far off further east? That's a 5-7 degree bust which could make a huge difference when surface temps get closer to freezing. Just something which raises an eyebrow.

Portastorm I don't know what your temp did but here on the north side of town we were predicted to reach 50, it may have before I checked at noon but since then the temp has been sitting at 45.

[ATCcane]

Here on the northwest side of Austin at Hudson Bend, I've been watching the dew points today on my shiny new Davis weather station. I had been trying to decide how to define when the actual "front" came through. Decided that I would use dew points and the last hour it has fallen from 42 to 39 here. Temp has slowly fell from 45 to 42.4 over the last few hours as well.

[gboudx]

2 updates from Steve McCauley; first is most recent.

I will be posting maps generated by the Stat Method this evening. They are a bit more "interesting" for the Metroplex, but since we are still more than 24 hours away from the precip event here in DFW, nothing is yet set in stone.

A wintry mix of sleet/freezing rain/snow is expected to develop tonight across the western sections of north Texas, NOT including the Metroplex. The precipitation out west will be very light, but with temperatures dropping below freezing, bridges and overpasses could become a problem since it just doesn't take much precip to cause slick spots to develop.
The precipitation will taper off Wednesday morning out west and redevelop in the afternoon, but the main precipitation event unfolds Wednesday night into New Year's Day when a 100% coverage of precipitation is likely.
Although the Metroplex is not included in any advisories at this time, there will be a brief window of opportunity for freezing rain in the Metroplex early Thursday morning before it transitions to ALL RAIN later in the morning and continuing into the afternoon. The best chance for freezing rain in the Metroplex will be during the predawn hours of Thursday until shortly after sunrise. The freezing rain area appears to be along and north of a line from Paris-McKinney-Arlington-Cleburne. And then as the sun comes up, that line will lift north and west of the DFW area with just a cold rain settling in for the rest of the day.
BUT ... as is often the case with these type of events, subtle changes in the atmosphere can shift that freezing rain line NORTH or SOUTH, so stay tuned. A shift to the south could bring a big mess to the Metroplex, while a slight shift to the north means just plain cold rain. We have another day to make changes to this outlook if necessary. But it is enough for now to say that if you have travel plans that take you west, be prepared for icy spots to develop overnight tonight!

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Dew point in Dallas down to 25. I think the front is just moving through.

[Shoshana]

I don't know if this will be the case further east in Texas ... but Lubbock is sitting at 17 degrees at 5 pm. The 12z GFS said they'd be at 24 degrees at 6 p.m. and the 18z has them at 22 at 6 pm. Don't think the temp there is going to rise at all now. Will the GFS be that far off further east? That's a 5-7 degree bust which could make a huge difference when surface temps get closer to freezing. Just something which raises an eyebrow.

Portastorm I don't know what your temp did but here on the north side of town we were predicted to reach 50, it may have before I checked at noon but since then the temp has been sitting at 45.

I never saw it go over 45 here and it's dropping now. 41 degrees right now. Got the new weather station up and it's pretty much spot on with one nearby I can see at Weather Underground...

[gpsnowman]

Just checked my smoked chickens and the wind seems like it has picked up a bit. Probably the beer messing with me. In case I don't post again, Happy New Year fellow Storm2K'ers, and be safe in case of ice.

[iorange55]

Probably the beer messing with me. In case I don't post again.

How much beer are you planning on drinking?

On a serious note, I hope the temps stay just above freezing. I hate cold rains, but I'd take that over someone getting seriously injured on an icy road. I'll be here waiting for the 2015 snowstorm. It will happen.

[gpsnowman]

Probably the beer messing with me. In case I don't post again.

How much beer are you planning on drinking?

On a serious note, I hope the temps stay just above freezing. I hate cold rains, but I'd take that over someone getting seriously injured on an icy road. I'll be here waiting for the 2015 snowstorm. It will happen.

Haha. Funny. Plenty tonight. And maybe tomorrow as well. New Years, right? Ice and beer do not mix or maybe they do. Roads and ice do not mix so stay safe regardless of weather!!

Of coarse I meant posting the rest of the year. Snowstorms galore in 2015!!!!!