Texas Winter 2021-2022

[gpsnowman]

6z GFS severe Arctic attack. Keep saying it folks, the models are hinting at it over and over the in the cycles of late both OPs and ENS.

Putting that wall to the test with a breakage watch.

https://i.imgur.com/GiqQR2j.gif

Ok I am slowly gaining interest in this now. I just don't want to get overly excited only to have Lucy pull the football away.

[Ralph's Weather]

Low 20s to around 30 across East Texas this morning.

[lukem]

Yikes on that 6z GFS. Having flashbacks from last February.

[wxman57]

Is the pattern somewhat similar to Last January?

EDIT: Many Cold Lovers say that a dry cold is better than 80°F (And me without Humidity, the Humidity makes it feel like torture!)

I grew up in south Louisiana. Cajuns need humidity to survive. I attended an AMS tropical conference in Tuscon, AZ around 2010. The air was so dry that I got nosebleeds. I think dewpoints were below 10F with temps near 90F (April).

As for last January, I don't really remember the upper-air pattern. I do see that January was about a degree above normal temperature-wise. There was even an 80 degree day in Houston last February 4th, 10 days before the big freeze. There is always the danger of a slight pattern shift that brings the colder air south to Texas. The current pattern is not much different from the pattern over the past few months, with the exception of much colder air to work with over western Canada. We had cross-Polar flow set up around the end of the first week of February last year. That drove much colder air southward to Texas. Current GFS doesn't indicate such a flow pattern around the time when it has an ice storm across Texas at 300+ hrs. Looks like a fantasy run, to me. Believe it at your own risk. The 06Z run is vastly different from the 00Z run as far as its surface features, though the upper-air pattern is similar.

[WinterMax]

Is the pattern somewhat similar to Last January?

EDIT: Many Cold Lovers say that a dry cold is better than 80°F (And me without Humidity, the Humidity makes it feel like torture!)

I grew up in south Louisiana. Cajuns need humidity to survive. I attended an AMS tropical conference in Tuscon, AZ around 2010. The air was so dry that I got nosebleeds. I think dewpoints were below 10F with temps near 90F (April).

As for last January, I don't really remember the upper-air pattern. I do see that January was about a degree above normal temperature-wise. There was even an 80 degree day in Houston last February 4th, 10 days before the big freeze. There is always the danger of a slight pattern shift that brings the colder air south to Texas. The current pattern is not much different from the pattern over the past few months, with the exception of much colder air to work with over western Canada. We had cross-Polar flow set up around the end of the first week of February last year. That drove much colder air southward to Texas. Current GFS doesn't indicate such a flow pattern around the time when it has an ice storm across Texas at 300+ hrs. Looks like a fantasy run, to me. Believe it at your own risk. The 06Z run is vastly different from the 00Z run as far as its surface features, though the upper-air pattern is similar.

Looks like it would be an ice storm here in South Louisiana, and we don't need that. It has been many years since we had a massive freezing rain event here. It was beautiful to look at but it was almost tragic, a full inch of ice on all roads, wrecks and busted pipes everywhere, electricity out for days.

2 runs does not a trend make, and if the atmospheric conditions don't match the model run, it's probably a fraud run like 57 states.

I'm torn because i do want cold and snow, But not an ice storm.

[Iceresistance]

End of 0z GFS has snow for almost the entire state of Texas (Yes, that also includes DFW, Austin, & Houston all at the same time!)

[Iceresistance]

6z GFS severe Arctic attack. Keep saying it folks, the models are hinting at it over and over the in the cycles of late both OPs and ENS.

Putting that wall to the test with a breakage watch.

https://i.imgur.com/GiqQR2j.gif

Ok I am slowly gaining interest in this now. I just don't want to get overly excited only to have Lucy pull the football away.

That 6z run featured a LOT of snow!

EDIT: That run is eerily similar to the February 2021 Extreme Cold & Snow

[kingwood_tx1999]

I'm not buying it..how many times has the gfs showed snow and ice and it almost never comes to pass this winter

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk

[Ntxw]

Don't trust the snow or ice on the maps. But the signal for very cold air to possibly dump has been on the ENs for more than a week now. Analogous to the last stages of pattern retrogression.

This is all going to be driven from the tropical Pacific should it come to fruition. It's been a tale of two states for Texas. DFW and Austin is running (so far) below normal for January. The far southern end of the state is running above normal. The cold has been pushing but not yet to wxman57's backyard.

[TropicalTundra]

Looks like Western Texas is getting some heavy snowfall on TWC Radar. Although I'm not sure if anything is accumulating. It's definitely cold enough for possibly some flakes to fall though.

[hriverajr]

Apparently some graupel fell this morning in Del Rio, Tx

[Ntxw]

Looks like Western Texas is getting some heavy snowfall on TWC Radar. Although I'm not sure if anything is accumulating. It's definitely cold enough for possibly some flakes to fall though.

STJ.

[rwfromkansas]

My FB memories shows two years ago we got some flurries here on this date. It shows how desperate for snow I was that I posted a video of nothing accumulating (IIRC it was above freezing anyway).

Now, there was a big snow when I lived in Midland a couple days ago in 2011 or so.

[cheezyWXguy]

Jeez, the 06z gfs run… I’m sure the pattern will be completely different next run, but if there’s a better setup than that to produce a high end winter storm across nearly the whole state, I can’t think of it.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Key for this mid-late Jan arctic blast will be the Greenland block. It appears there will be a wave breaking event in the Atlantic in 4-5 days, well within the GFS's good forecasting range. SoI'm getting excited about this as well, with Ntx. The only issue is if the PV is too far east, most of the cold air will miss the southern plains.

[Ntxw]

Key for this mid-late Jan arctic blast will be the Greenland block. It appears there will be a wave breaking event in the Atlantic in 4-5 days, well within the GFS's good forecasting range. SoI'm getting excited about this as well, with Ntx. The only issue is if the PV is too far east, most of the cold air will miss the southern plains.

If you get the Atlantic block to morph with Alaskan block the whole country east of the Rockies will be in a long duration cold snap. With wintery chances along the fringes.

[Iceresistance]

Key for this mid-late Jan arctic blast will be the Greenland block. It appears there will be a wave breaking event in the Atlantic in 4-5 days, well within the GFS's good forecasting range. So I'm getting excited about this as well, with Ntx. The only issue is if the PV is too far east, most of the cold air will miss the southern plains.

If you get the Atlantic block to morph with Alaskan block the whole country east of the Rockies will be in a long duration cold snap. With wintery chances along the fringes.

And we might be in the fringes

[orangeblood]

Don't trust the snow or ice on the maps. But the signal for very cold air to possibly dump has been on the ENs for more than a week now. Analogous to the last stages of pattern retrogression.

This is all going to be driven from the tropical Pacific should it come to fruition. It's been a tale of two states for Texas. DFW and Austin is running (so far) below normal for January. The far southern end of the state is running above normal. The cold has been pushing but not yet to wxman57's backyard.

At DFW, January starts out of the gate strong - at or below freezing lows for first 7 of 11 days of the month...considering January only averages 10 days below freezing, this is a great start and looks even better towards the back 1/2 of the month. The balancing act of Mother Nature is what makes it so interesting!!!

[Ntxw]

Don't trust the snow or ice on the maps. But the signal for very cold air to possibly dump has been on the ENs for more than a week now. Analogous to the last stages of pattern retrogression.

This is all going to be driven from the tropical Pacific should it come to fruition. It's been a tale of two states for Texas. DFW and Austin is running (so far) below normal for January. The far southern end of the state is running above normal. The cold has been pushing but not yet to wxman57's backyard.

At DFW, January starts out of the gate strong - at or below freezing lows for first 7 of 11 days of the month...considering January only averages 10 days below freezing, this is a great start and looks even better towards the back 1/2 of the month. The balancing act of Mother Nature is what makes it so interesting!!!

First half have been glancing blows. Shows you the wealth of cold Canada has.

[bubba hotep]

Only a spread of a few hundred miles at a time.

https://i.imgur.com/WIjurzZ.gif

NATL setup seems like it would favor some additional digging/suppression but probably need it to capture the Baja cutoff low to change things for Texas.