Texas Winter 2021-2022

[rwfromkansas]

That fantasy 6z run is amazing, even pounds Ruidoso, NM with 30 inches! It's very hard to get sustained snow there with that level of depth due to the southern latitude. But, of course, this won't actually happen. Edit to add: Almost to 100 pages. Not too bad for the December torch.

[texas1836]

That fantasy 6z run is amazing, even pounds Ruidoso, NM with 30 inches! It's very hard to get sustained snow there with that level of depth due to the southern latitude. But, of course, this won't actually happen. Edit to add: Almost to 100 pages. Not too bad for the December torch.

But not impossible. I was there in 2018 with almost 40 inches of snow in December.

[Brent]

I'm still intrigued a little by Saturday here the TWC app mentions wet snow possible trend is definitely positive because the weekend was dry

GFS is now dropping nearly a foot in Northern Arkansas

[Iceresistance]

NWS-Tulsa said this in their Hazardous Weather Outlook.

A storm system and cold front are expected to drop southeast over
the Plains on Saturday. While the details of this forecast will be
refined in the coming days, there is at least limited potential
for impactful snow accumulation across western Arkansas and
neighboring far eastern Oklahoma, especially in the higher terrain
areas.

And in their Forecasting Discussion:

Northwest flow will prevail aloft over the Plains this week in a
positive PNA pattern over the CONUS. Several waves will ripple
thru in the flow, the most notable of which is expected to slide
southeast over the region Friday night into Saturday. The 00Z
suite of models have trended farther west with the storm track and
are thus more aggressive with QPF over the northern and eastern
portions of the forecast area. Elected to go above blended
guidance (NBM) with at least slight chance mention in these areas.
Thermal profiles aloft cool enough to support snow, with low
level temps marginal. If storm track/QPF trends hold, some
accumulating snow would be possible going into the weekend,
especially over W AR in the higher elevations. Some adjustments to
the forecast may be necessary.

[Ntxw]

That fantasy 6z run is amazing, even pounds Ruidoso, NM with 30 inches! It's very hard to get sustained snow there with that level of depth due to the southern latitude. But, of course, this won't actually happen. Edit to add: Almost to 100 pages. Not too bad for the December torch.

What's important to take from the 6z, not the pretty color maps in itself, is that ENs have pointed out a deep mid latitude trough over North America for a while with convincing consensus. The operationals didn't toy with it yet only loading cold up north. But now with the ENs far range coming in closer the OPs are showing signs of unloading it. It may come and go to varying degrees run to run but the potential is there.

[txtwister78]

A few more members of the GEFS are trending back to showing a secondary piece of energy swinging down over West TX this weekend. Definitely not something I'm willing to go all in on just yet, but models have been hinting at this (on and off) for a few days. Something to watch.

[Ntxw]

A few more members of the GEFS are trending back to showing a secondary piece of energy swinging down over West TX this weekend. Definitely not something I'm willing to go all in on just yet, but models have been hinting at this (on and off) for a few days. Something to watch.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/precip_6hr_ptype_multimember_panel/1641902400/1642312800-ro8GYYShBqE.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/precip_6hr_ptype_multimember_panel/1641902400/1642291200-B75Ald3QUsw.png

Much like today perhaps the STJ and Baja feature may bring up some moisture that models sometimes cannot capture too well.

[txtwister78]

Just had a pocket of sleet go right over me. Lasted for 4-5 minutes.

[cheezyWXguy]

That fantasy 6z run is amazing, even pounds Ruidoso, NM with 30 inches! It's very hard to get sustained snow there with that level of depth due to the southern latitude. But, of course, this won't actually happen. Edit to add: Almost to 100 pages. Not too bad for the December torch.

What's important to take from the 6z, not the pretty color maps in itself, is that ENs have pointed out a deep mid latitude trough over North America for a while with convincing consensus. The operationals didn't toy with it yet only loading cold up north. But now with the ENs far range coming in closer the OPs are showing signs of unloading it. It may come and go to varying degrees run to run but the potential is there.

Agreed here, it does seem like the ops are starting to sniff it out. At least through hour 240, the 0z, 6z, and 12z gfs runs don’t look all that different at 500mb, even though their outcomes past that point will likely be pretty different this far out

[harp]

12Z takes the ice storm away so far.

[TropicalTundra]

12Z takes the ice storm away so far.

Ain't that a good thing? It's better to get stuck in wet snow than to fall on your behind on ice.

[harp]

12Z takes the ice storm away so far.

Ain't that a good thing? It's better to get stuck in wet snow than to fall on your behind on ice.

Not complaining. Snow or sleet, ok. Ice, forget it!

[rwfromkansas]

12Z takes the ice storm away so far.

Ain't that a good thing? It's better to get stuck in wet snow than to fall on your behind on ice.

Not complaining. Snow or sleet, ok. Ice, forget it!

If I can't get snow, I like sleet. It's easier to shut things down without shutting power. But ice storms are nightmares.

[vbhoutex]

Short lived CC drop on that tor warned cell in Houston. Haven't seen any official confirmation yet but there was likely a short lived tornado just north of I-10 a few minutes ago.

That cell apparently did drop a tornado that did some substantial damage about 1/2 mile to my East. It got crazy wild with the wind and continuous lightning. Had 5.53" of rain yesterday with most of it in 2 hours after no rain for 3 weeks and the last substantial rain almost 2 months ago(1.04"). I toured the area and reported to NWS and they are coming out to survey tomorrow. If they confirm a tornado that will bring the number confirmed in Houston metro yesterday/last night to 6. Quite a rough night for many in Houston and unusual for us to have that type of weather in January.

NWS did coniirm an EF1 tornado in the Spring Branch area near me. Way to close for comfort!!

[Iceresistance]

Short lived CC drop on that tor warned cell in Houston. Haven't seen any official confirmation yet but there was likely a short lived tornado just north of I-10 a few minutes ago.

That cell apparently did drop a tornado that did some substantial damage about 1/2 mile to my East. It got crazy wild with the wind and continuous lightning. Had 5.53" of rain yesterday with most of it in 2 hours after no rain for 3 weeks and the last substantial rain almost 2 months ago(1.04"). I toured the area and reported to NWS and they are coming out to survey tomorrow. If they confirm a tornado that will bring the number confirmed in Houston metro yesterday/last night to 6. Quite a rough night for many in Houston and unusual for us to have that type of weather in January.

NWS did coniirm an EF1 tornado in the Spring Branch area near me. Way to close for comfort!!

Yikes! That is way too close! I once had a tornado touch down less than 1 mile away from my home (The mesocyclone itself was less than 1000 feet away) in May 2015.

[Iceresistance]

12z GFS has a crippling Ice Storm for Central, Northern, & Eastern Texas in the long range!

[rwfromkansas]

12z GFS has a crippling Ice Storm for Central, Northern, & Eastern Texas in the long range!

Geez.

[Cpv17]

Not much changed on the 12z GFS. I’m beginning to get interested in what it’s showing in the 10ish day timeframe.

[cheezyWXguy]

12z GFS has a crippling Ice Storm for Central, Northern, & Eastern Texas in the long range!

Appears to have another round of cold air diving south at the end of the run too. With this being the third run in a row with some form of significant winter weather, orangeblood and ntxw could well be right about pattern changes at the end of January into February

[Ntxw]

Not much changed on the 12z GFS. I’m beginning to get interested in what it’s showing in the 10ish day timeframe.

It's a little east but you're talking shifts of a massive trough.

Last year in late January when the models were showing nuances of what was to become in February we were looking at these kinds of shifts. For cycles the PV was a little far east, little too far west, too much SW flow on and on. Eventually it all came true. PV went northeast with the strongest upper cold, western trough dug west for snows, and SW flow brought ample moisture.