Texas Winter 2017-2018

Winter Weather Discussion

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Brent
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1981 Postby Brent » Fri Dec 15, 2017 11:47 pm

JayDT wrote:
Brent wrote:around 4-6 inches of snow in DFW it appears, hey I'd be thrilled with that :lol:

Thats way better than nothing lol.. I’d still be very happy :ggreen:


and considering the previous runs have been icy with no snow its a positive sign
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1982 Postby Brent » Fri Dec 15, 2017 11:47 pm

CMC has ice in DFW Christmas Day
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1983 Postby Ntxw » Fri Dec 15, 2017 11:48 pm

So for those wondering.

0z GFS initially is a crippling ice storm Del Rio, to SA/Austin, College Station. Snow from San Angelo to DFW to Texarkana next weekend. Cold, cold rain for Houston. Aloft is a little colder than 18z and everything took a bump towards the 12z Euro.

Next is the Euro run which starts in about an hour.

Edit: Snow for the Red River areas too
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1984 Postby WxGirl403 » Fri Dec 15, 2017 11:49 pm

Just to preface this, I am by no means a meteorologist, just enjoy the weather. I’m in San Antonio - looks like it’s set up to be smack dab in the middle of an ice storm. Snow ok, ice, bye bye!
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1985 Postby utweather » Fri Dec 15, 2017 11:52 pm

wxman57 wrote:Ha! This GFS run has 2.5" of freezing rain around Austin. I don't think Portastorm would like that. I wouldn't. Hopefully, it's wrong.

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=zr_acc&rh=2017121600&fh=204&r=us_sc&dpdt=


Catastrophic
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1986 Postby SnowintheFalls » Fri Dec 15, 2017 11:55 pm

Ntxw wrote:So for those wondering.

0z GFS initially is a crippling ice storm Del Rio, to SA/Austin, College Station. Snow from San Angelo to DFW to Texarkana next weekend. Cold, cold rain for Houston. Aloft is a little colder than 18z and everything took a bump towards the 12z Euro.

Next is the Euro run which starts in about an hour.

Edit: Snow for the Red River areas too


Definitely glad to see snow on Christmas near the river but am definitely concerned for family in south Texas. Was also hoping the ice would back off but it is alarming how consistent the models have been with it so far.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1987 Postby Ntxw » Fri Dec 15, 2017 11:55 pm

WxGirl403 wrote:Just to preface this, I am by no means a meteorologist, just enjoy the weather. I’m in San Antonio - looks like it’s set up to be smack dab in the middle of an ice storm. Snow ok, ice, bye bye!


First post! Welcome, glad you dived in :D. Definitely looking interesting for many areas including the SA area on the latest runs.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1988 Postby stormlover2013 » Fri Dec 15, 2017 11:58 pm

2 days out we will get a grasp on this, still 6 days out
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1989 Postby Ntxw » Fri Dec 15, 2017 11:58 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:2 days out we will get a grasp on this, still 6 days out


Brent is going to lose a lot of sleep over this :P. As many others I'm sure.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1990 Postby WxGirl403 » Sat Dec 16, 2017 12:00 am

I’ve been trying to post all day, but had to be “approved” first. I love learning new thing about the weather! Definitely looks interesting down here for Christmas - not the white Christmas I want!
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1991 Postby Brent » Sat Dec 16, 2017 12:01 am

Ntxw wrote:
stormlover2013 wrote:2 days out we will get a grasp on this, still 6 days out


Brent is going to lose a lot of sleep over this :P. As many others I'm sure.


lol I've already been waking up early to check models, though so far going back to bed :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1992 Postby Ntxw » Sat Dec 16, 2017 12:03 am

Lost in the storm, is the rather cold run of the GFS. Not the save your pipes cold, but it's not warm. Probably ends up colder than modeled.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1993 Postby SnowintheFalls » Sat Dec 16, 2017 12:08 am

So, out of curiosity, why is the GFS model free to the public and other models including the Euro behind pay sites? I've been wondering this for a while now! lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1994 Postby Ntxw » Sat Dec 16, 2017 12:10 am

SnowintheFalls wrote:So, out of curiosity, why is the GFS model free to the public and other models including the Euro behind pay sites? I've been wondering this for a while now! lol


GFS/Canadian is free to use by all since they are publicly funded by their governments. Euro is a private enterprise and previously you would need to pay for info. However weather.us (includes Ryan Maue) has provided the Euro data for free paying out of their pockets. Not sure how they are doing it, but they have stated their data is free to share and access.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1995 Postby stormlover2013 » Sat Dec 16, 2017 12:12 am

Lol those are the fun days waking up for model runs lol, I’m just wondering how cold this air is going to get
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1996 Postby TheProfessor » Sat Dec 16, 2017 12:12 am

0z GFS is much better for North Texas(not for South Texas, however) 4-6 inches of snow would be great, heck if we get 6 inches that'd be more snow I've seen in 1 storm than I've seen in a single storm in Ohio(the most I've seen is 5). The ice side of the storm could potentially be beyond terrible.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1997 Postby SnowintheFalls » Sat Dec 16, 2017 12:14 am

Ntxw wrote:
SnowintheFalls wrote:So, out of curiosity, why is the GFS model free to the public and other models including the Euro behind pay sites? I've been wondering this for a while now! lol


GFS/Canadian is free to use by all since they are publicly funded by their governments. Euro is a private enterprise and previously you would need to pay for info. However weather.us (includes Ryan Maue) has provided the Euro data for free paying out of their pockets. Not sure how they are doing it, but they have stated their data is free to share and access.


That makes sense. I wasn't aware the Euro was privately funded. I may have to start watching the weather.us site in addition to the GFS site. Thanks for the info!
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1998 Postby EnnisTx » Sat Dec 16, 2017 12:30 am

Ntxw wrote:Lost in the storm, is the rather cold run of the GFS. Not the save your pipes cold, but it's not warm. Probably ends up colder than modeled.


The burst your pipes cold is what I don't want anyone to see. Talk about costly!
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1999 Postby missygirl810 » Sat Dec 16, 2017 12:31 am

Ok, dumb question, but going to ask anyway, is Hunt Co considered North TX or Northeast Tx, or Central TX? I have heard all three for my area lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2000 Postby Cpv17 » Sat Dec 16, 2017 12:35 am

0z GFS is about 5 degrees colder for SE TX compared to the 18z.
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