Texas Winter 2018-2019

[cheezyWXguy]

On another note, it looks like the board is going to hit 100 pages in December!

100th

[bubba hotep]

On another note, it looks like the board is going to hit 100 pages in December!

The CMC 1st and then the Euro brought this thread back to life lol

[Cerlin]

On another note, it looks like the board is going to hit 100 pages in December!

The CMC 1st and then the Euro brought this thread back to life lol

The people want snow! And people talk! So people talk about wanting snow, and those models are just fueling our fire!!

[Yukon Cornelius]

Maybe I am reading the models wrong but is there a reason WF is not included in the WSW yet? Seems like the models have consistently shown wintry precip over us.

Have you seen The Weather Channels forecast for WF?!

[EnnisTx]

Looks like the system will track along the Red River. It looks like this will be a wait and see if it tracks North or further South.

Yes but take into consideration the GFS is the warmest if the temps are like the other guidance it's a major winter storm for North Texas and southern Oklahoma

I'm going to step out there and say this will turn ugly for DFW Metro. I want snow like everyone else, but ice is dangerous and costly...

[srainhoutx]

New Years Eve afternoon weather Update from Jeff:

Heavy rainfall possible Wednesday into Thursday.

Flooding concerns increasing especially on area rivers that are already running high.

Global models have come into better agreement today with the handling of the next upper level storm system and have increased rainfall amounts a good bit over the region. This storm system looks slower and more organized on the latest model runs than the previous runs and this appears to be causing the increasing rainfall potential. Surface front will move down and across the area later tonight and then stall offshore late Tuesday while warm moist SSW/SW flow aloft rides up and over the surface cold dome which will result in increasing rain chances Tuesday night. Strong forcing begins to arrive on Wednesday and banded rainfall will likely develop from SW to NE over the region. While the surface will remain cold (in the 40’s) the warm air riding over top will become increasing unstable and looks to lead to some thunderstorm formation in bands especially NW of US 59 on Wednesday into Wednesday night. Heavy rainfall will be possible with this activity and WPC has upgraded the area north of I-10 and east of US 59 into a slight risk for excessive rainfall and run-off.

Rainfall Amounts:
Rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches will be common which is nearly double what was being forecasted this morning. Isolated totals of 2-3 inches are not out of the question. Given the potential for convective rains some 1-2 inch per hour totals also appear possible, but think the majority of the rainfall will be light to moderate with embedded heavier storms.

Hydro:
Given the increase in rainfall amounts today on top of completely saturated grounds and already high watersheds…flooding will be possible. In fact much of what falls is going to be converted into run-off. Current rainfall maximum is along and NW of a line from roughly Tomball to Livingston or areas that were hard hit last Thursday morning and across the San Jacinto River basin again. Flood waves in this basin are just passing Lake Houston and both the West and East Forks continue to be highly elevated. Rainfall of this magnitude will almost certainly result in rises to flood stage or above again on the West and East Forks. Additionally, Spring, Cypress, Little Cypress, and Willow Creeks continue to move run-off from last week and additional heavy rainfall on these watersheds is going to result in significant rises.

Since model guidance is just starting to show and latch on to this concern…there is some degree of uncertainty as to where and exactly just how much rain will fall as the main axis appears to be just NE of our area.

[Jarodm12]

Looks like the system will track along the Red River. It looks like this will be a wait and see if it tracks North or further South.

Yes but take into consideration the GFS is the warmest if the temps are like the other guidance it's a major winter storm for North Texas and southern Oklahoma

I'm going to step out there and say this will turn ugly for DFW Metro. I want snow like everyone else, but ice is dangerous and costly...

Yes I wanted snow so bad I was so worried yesterday I almost had to take a Xanax, but now it looks like a major ice storm followed with a snow snow storm which could be deadly , anyway I hope everyone's alright it will be pretty outside though God bless

[EnnisTx]

Maybe I am reading the models wrong but is there a reason WF is not included in the WSW yet? Seems like the models have consistently shown wintry precip over us.

I haven't seen the discussion yet, but I would guess that the current watches were hoisted for the chance of freezing rain on the front end. The snow the models are showing gets cranking a bit later giving the WFOs more time to mull their options.

Yes. If you look at their discussions up in Oklahoma, they're still trying to decide where the track will ultimately be. Like you said they have a little more time to work with.

[rwfromkansas]

Is the system on land yet?

[cheezyWXguy]

Is the system on land yet?

Yeah it's digging south through Nevada and Utah.

[SnowintheFalls]

Maybe I am reading the models wrong but is there a reason WF is not included in the WSW yet? Seems like the models have consistently shown wintry precip over us.

Have you seen The Weather Channels forecast for WF?!

I had not seen that yet as I try not to get too wrapped up in weather apps. 3 to 5 inches of snow and ice is significant though! Wonder what mixture of models they use for forecasting?

[EnnisTx]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _us_15.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _us_11.png

[Jarodm12]

18z fv3 nails northern Texas and southern Oklahoma and it's probably still too warm wow

[Cerlin]

18z fv3 nails northern Texas and southern Oklahoma and it's probably still too warm wow

Nothing but rain for DFW.

[Jarodm12]

18z fv3 nails northern Texas and southern Oklahoma and it's probably still too warm wow

Nothing but rain for DFW.

At this point the GFS temps are the outlier if you read the north Texas forecast discussion they make the point to speak of just how cold this airmass coming in is, with temps to the north of us still in the teens during the afternoon hours, though the expect moderation with that said, there's a known conversion issue with the TT snow maps but what it's showing over north Texas and southern Oklahoma is probably reasonable considering it's the warm outlier and it hammers everyone alone the 380/75 corridor northward , (check the Fv3 accumulations )

[EnnisTx]

18z fv3 nails northern Texas and southern Oklahoma and it's probably still too warm wow

Nothing but rain for DFW.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _us_14.png

Doesn’t look like rain.

[rwfromkansas]

Honestly at this point after how many years of nothing I will take an ice storm. I will be home, wife now works from home, so just bring something wintry.

I do recall people saying earlier that El Ninos only have snow or rain, not ice. Why is this one different?

[Cerlin]

18z fv3 nails northern Texas and southern Oklahoma and it's probably still too warm wow

Nothing but rain for DFW.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _us_14.png

Doesn’t look like rain.

Look at just the precipitation—TT has weird snowfall maps.

[Captmorg70]

18z fv3 nails northern Texas and southern Oklahoma and it's probably still too warm wow

Nothing but rain for DFW.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _us_14.png

Doesn’t look like rain.

Can’t do a sounding for FV3 on TT. But surface temp over DFW during the time is shows the “snow” is 37-39

[EnnisTx]

Nothing but rain for DFW.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _us_14.png

Doesn’t look like rain.

Can’t do a sounding for FV3 on TT. But surface temp over DFW during the time is shows the “snow” is 37-39

I think it will come in colder.