Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Texas Snowman]

That could be a bit of a problem…

 https://x.com/ryanmaue/status/1744820252578394321

[ThunderSleetDreams]

EC Ensembles have 1-2 inches snow in D-FW area. This doesn't look nearly as cold as 2021 or 2022 here in Houston. Don't care how cold it gets in D-FW. A couple moderate freezes here and winter can be over.

You got another several below normal weeks with many freezes.

[Ntxw]

With the NWS upping the cold tune the TV mets of our choice will likely also.

-30s and -40s dotting the Northwest Territories and Yukon this afternoon.

[HockeyTx82]

With the NWS upping the cold tune the TV mets of our choice will likely also.

So when do we get to talk about it and counter big weather forecasting?

[Rgv20]

NWS Brownsville starting to take notice.

The aforementioned weak and broad troughing that begins Sunday is
associated with the onset of an arctic-sourced air mass, which is
pressing rapidly south - pushed by developing cross-polar flow
aloft that is now well-forecast by all deterministic global
models. In the big picture, this flow will eventually bring the
coldest air of the season into the southern tip of Texas,
beginning as early as Sunday evening and as late as Monday
morning. All models are now advertising a freeze for all or part
of the region early Tuesday, with differences (not surprising) in
just how cold it might get.

This arctic-sourced front should come through dry, though clouds
could hang tough behind it due to low level convergence in such
airmasses as we`ve seen in recent events (Dec. 2022 and Feb.
2021). As of this writing, the deterministic ECMWF is both tardy
and not as cold as the GFS and the traditionally cold Canadian
GEM. Due to timing and uncertainty this far out, elected to roll
with the National Blend (which accounts for many model types and
ensembles), with a slight nod to colder temperatures both Monday
and Tuesday during the day.

Note that there is a large range of potential temperatures,
especially Monday. Reasonable worst-case (cold) - 10-25 percent
probability - argue for highs only in the 40s to mid 50s, while
`best` case scenarios would hold the surge back until late day and
allow temperatures to rise into the 70s to around 80. With arctic
air typically faster and stronger, elected to nudge the blended
forecast (upper 50s to mid 60s) down across the ranchlands and
upper Valley (mid 50s to around 60) for now.

The surge should arrive Monday night and bottom out Tuesday
morning. Expected (25-75 percent range) forecast is at or just
below freezing, with a hard freeze across the northern ranchlands.
However, there is a 10-25 percent probability for a widespread
hard freeze, and given the source of the air mass and time of year
(peak of the cold season beginning), this needs to be considered.
When accompanied by stiff northerly winds, the apparent
temperatures would range from the mid teens to lower 20s - a
certin Wind Chill Advisory event but also a potentially more
dangerous Wind Chill Warning (20 degrees or lower Valley...15
degrees or lower ranchlands).

We`ll know a lot more as the situation evolves later this week.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

With the NWS upping the cold tune the TV mets of our choice will likely also.

-30s and -40s dotting the Northwest Territories and Yukon this afternoon.

Like clockwork

[Texas Snow]

With the NWS upping the cold tune the TV mets of our choice will likely also.

They (NWS) now have it a couple days without getting above freezing at my casa and as we've seen may end up going colder.



Thursday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms between 1am and 4am, then a chance of showers after 4am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 31. South wind 10 to 15 mph becoming west northwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Friday
A 40 percent chance of showers before 7am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 44. Windy, with a west northwest wind 20 to 25 mph increasing to 25 to 30 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph.

Friday Night
Clear, with a low around 29. Blustery, with a west northwest wind 20 to 25 mph becoming west 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.

Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 49. West southwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Saturday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 32. Southeast wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 44.

Sunday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 14.

M.L.King Day
Mostly sunny and cold, with a high near 28.

Monday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 12.

Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 31.




Here is the AFD:

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Wednesday Night Onward/

The latter portion of the week and into the early weekend is
proving to be quite the capricious forecast in terms of
uncertainty and workload. In short, we`ll have two systems move
through during the long term period: the first one bringing our
next shot at strong to severe storms, and the second possibly our
region`s first foray with winter precipitation this season.

Currently, a longwave trough dominates the CONUS with multiple
embedded shortwaves creating storm systems across the country. By
Wednesday evening the shortwave that will bring the upper-level
support for our late week system will be located over the PAC-NW.
Locally, ample moisture will be drawn northward by a 30-40kt LLJ,
mainly confined to the eastern half of the region. The shortwave
will dig down towards the Southern Plains on Thursday. Surface
cyclogenesis will commence on the lee of the Rockies, increasing
wind speeds over the region in response. As the surface low and
upper shortwave move east, frontogenesis begins and a cold front
will be ushered into our region Thursday night. Showers and storms
will accompany this front for areas mainly near and east of I-35
where there is better moisture. With parameter space showing
instability > 500 J/kg, ample deep layer shear, and steep lapse
rates, some storms could become strong to severe near and east of I-
35 into Friday morning. This will need vigilance with it being a
nighttime system, so keep updated with the forecast as we go into
the next day or so.

The shortwave will make its passage through Texas and Oklahoma
overnight into Friday morning, bringing wrap-around moisture into
the region. With cooler temperatures making their way around the
backside of the low, profiles are conducive for some wintry precip
in portions of the Red River on Friday morning. Cooler temperatures
are expected across the region following Friday`s cold front.
However, the real kicker will be on Sunday.

Another stout shortwave will swing south through the larger-scale
trough, sweeping a strong cold front and arctic airmass across the
region. What has changed from previous forecasts is that there are
mentionable chances for wintry precipitation across our eastern
counties Sunday into Monday. The big caveat is that there is still
considerable uncertainty at this timeframe. Deterministic guidance
is markedly different from each other. The Euro has a much faster
solution with the front barreling through on Saturday, compared
with the GFS placing the moving the front through over the day
Sunday. Clusters show a near 50-50 split with 2 showing faster and
2 showing slower FROPA. We`ll keep an eye on any changes to the
timing of the front as this could impact temperatures going into
early next week.

Additionally, guidance is all over the place in regards to
precipitation chances. The Euro is showering us in winter precip
Sunday into Monday, while the GFS generally keeps most of it to our
east. While overall probabilities remain on the low side at this
time, cluster analysis shows better chances along the Red River and
East Texas for observing wintry precipitation Monday morning as the
shortwave swings across the region.

Much colder temperatures are expected to stick around through early
next week as cold air advection persists. Monday morning will be
quite a shock as temperatures plummet into the single digits near
the Red River and low 20s across Central Texas. By Monday afternoon,
temperatures will be below freezing for all of North Texas, with a
good portion of Central Texas hanging on in the mid 30s. Tuesday
morning is looking to be the coldest with everyone below 20 degrees.
A good portion of North Texas looks to stay below freezing all day
on Monday. These will be the coldest days we have experienced so far
this season, and cold preparations need to be in motion now. Make
sure to cover outdoor pipes and faucets to protect from breaks, and
bring sensitive plants indoors. You also cannot forget about those
furry friends! If traveling, make sure to have blankets and
precautionary items in your car in case of auto troubles.

Prater

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Wouldn't it be fitting if Friday's system was able to pull the cold air source more than modeled? There I said what some of us were thinking.

Exactly what I've been thinking. 988 low in arkansas. 970 near chicago, it's going to have very strong northerly winds behind it, launching whatever air thats behind it to the gulf coast.

[cheezyWXguy]

GFS still doesnt get it. Cold air clears out way too quickly, coming above freezing in DFW by Tuesday afternoon. Not gonna happen.

[Ntxw]

GFS still doesnt get it. Cold air clears out way too quickly, coming above freezing in DFW by Tuesday afternoon. Not gonna happen.

I wouldn't stress over the GFS temps anytime soon. It probably won't show reality until Friday. If you run any times upstream under 100 hrs the corrections it has done is comical. We've beaten this horse with it many times. I'd wait for better resolution guidance. We can use its trends to see if the CMC and ICON are worth putting some stock.

[Itryatgolf]

GFS still doesnt get it. Cold air clears out way too quickly, coming above freezing in DFW by Tuesday afternoon. Not gonna happen.

I wouldn't stress over the GFS temps anytime soon. It probably won't show reality until Friday. If you run any times upstream under 100 hrs the corrections it has done is comical. We've beaten this horse with it many times. I'd wait for better resolution guidance. We can use its trends to see if the CMC and ICON are worth putting some stock.

The gfs was first to pick up on the cold blast in Feb 2021 and locked in two winter storms and that's why I believe the euro will trend less exciting and similar to the gfs. Euro just isn't like it was years ago!!

[rwfromkansas]

Saw DFW posted a social media graphic on the potential for snow/ice.

Said most likely scenario will involve east of DFW, but there is a 20 percent chance of involving DFW, which seems pretty high this far out for the conservative FWD.

[Ntxw]

570dm ridge over Alaska next week 18z GFS. If we warm up at all, another cold blast is building momentum behind it.

1065mb ridge over NW Canada. Either set up alone would be enough for a winter, back to back handoff would be quite the stretch.

[Stratton23]

Itryatgolf yeah thats not how it works, just because the GFS was the first to sniff out the februrary 2021 outbreak and winter storm doesnt mean the Euro will trend towards the current GFS run, the GFS has actually been the most unreliable of the globals so far for this event as its had to correct colder over the pst several days, and just because the GFS is dry does not mean the Euro wont be correct ( vise versa as well)

[Ntxw]

Itryatgolf yeah thats not how it works, just because the GFS was the first to sniff out the februrary 2021 outbreak and winter storm doesnt mean the Euro will trend towards the current GFS run, the GFS has actually been the most unreliable of the globals so far for this event as its had to correct colder over the pst several days, and just because the GFS is dry does not mean the Euro wont be correct ( vise versa as well)

This isn't the same GFS as it was back then. Whatever upgrades since it has performed poorly with cold blasts. With the last 3 cold wave events, I have so much mistrust on it, it's a click view once and move on. I don't know if the algorithms it has struggles with downsloping in the Rockies, but something like that it has a flagrant error.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

570dm ridge over Alaska next week 18z GFS. If we warm up at all, another cold blast is building momentum behind it.

1065mb ridge over NW Canada. Either set up alone would be enough for a winter, back to back handoff would be quite the stretch.

Yep, GFS wont let us get through this one first!

As far as issues with cold air, I agree with all of you but let's focus on the upper levels. We know what it will translate to.

[Brent]

While we're worried about the GFS nearly every EPS member has a clear snow signal here Sunday so far. I'd rather have that on my side anyway

[Rgv20]

Itryatgolf yeah thats not how it works, just because the GFS was the first to sniff out the februrary 2021 outbreak and winter storm doesnt mean the Euro will trend towards the current GFS run, the GFS has actually been the most unreliable of the globals so far for this event as its had to correct colder over the pst several days, and just because the GFS is dry does not mean the Euro wont be correct ( vise versa as well)

This isn't the same GFS as it was back then. Whatever upgrades since it has performed poorly with cold blasts. With the last 3 cold wave events, I have so much mistrust on it, it's a click view once and move on. I don't know if the algorithms it has struggles with downsloping in the Rockies, but something like that it has a flagrant error.

I remember that for the Feb 2021 the GFS and ECMWF were horrible with the temperature forecast for the Rio Grande Valley.

[Itryatgolf]

Itryatgolf yeah thats not how it works, just because the GFS was the first to sniff out the februrary 2021 outbreak and winter storm doesnt mean the Euro will trend towards the current GFS run, the GFS has actually been the most unreliable of the globals so far for this event as its had to correct colder over the pst several days, and just because the GFS is dry does not mean the Euro wont be correct ( vise versa as well)

This isn't the same GFS as it was back then. Whatever upgrades since it has performed poorly with cold blasts. With the last 3 cold wave events, I have so much mistrust on it, it's a click view once and move on. I don't know if the algorithms it has struggles with downsloping in the Rockies, but something like that it has a flagrant error.

If that energy can dig further sw in future runs we be in good shape. Hopefully gfs trends that way similar to euro

[CaptinCrunch]

If you blend model expectations you have DFW only around freezing for Sunday, low teens Sunday night, low 20s for high Monday, low teens to single digits Monday night, mid 20s Tuesday, teens Tuesday night, Wednesday around 32 for a high. After that Thursday may spike back into the 40s, before next system possibly Saturday/Sunday.

As for winter precipitation I'm going with yes, but amount and type won't be nailed down till Sunday.