06z gfs a better hit of snow Houston, TX east to Mobile, AL

southerngale · #21 Postby **southerngale** » Fri Dec 17, 2004 2:23 pm

stormman wrote:yes I remember the super storm 93 well, but their is no way this is anything like that, I mean that was the storm of the century.

But this is a new century. :wink:

David...I'll be chunking them right back at ya! I know there's not much chance I'll ever see a flake, but I'm still hoping it happens!!

GAStorm · #22 Postby **GAStorm** » Fri Dec 17, 2004 2:33 pm

Brent wrote:Stupid high pressure.

Don't worry, that model run will change several times before next week comes around. :wink:

Wnghs2007 · #23 Postby **Wnghs2007** » Fri Dec 17, 2004 2:47 pm

Also Brent. Dont forget the GFS's South and East Bias it usually has. DT has mentioned this and says if you think its all in the gulf, then you have another thing coming to you.

southerngale · #24 Postby **southerngale** » Fri Dec 17, 2004 2:50 pm

If that other coming to you is snow.....fine by me!!

GalvestonDuck · #25 Postby **GalvestonDuck** » Fri Dec 17, 2004 2:54 pm

southerngale wrote:David...I'll be chunking them right back at ya! I know there's not much chance I'll ever see a flake, but I'm still hoping it happens!!

I'll take ya both on! I'll bring surplus ammo from the north when I come back next weekend!

GAStorm · #26 Postby **GAStorm** » Fri Dec 17, 2004 2:57 pm

Wnghs2003 wrote:Also Brent. Dont forget the GFS's South and East Bias it usually has. DT has mentioned this and says if you think its all in the gulf, then you have another thing coming to you.

Just saw another post by DT stating how the GFS cannot pick up the STJ. Also, his comment on the 12z day 6 ggem was: "12z day 6 ggem SAYS trouble FOR DEEP SOUTH..."

Website · #27 Postby **Brent** » Fri Dec 17, 2004 3:00 pm

Wnghs2007 wrote:Also Brent. Dont forget the GFS's South and East Bias it usually has. DT has mentioned this and says if you think its all in the gulf, then you have another thing coming to you.

I like that.

Yankeegirl · #28 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Fri Dec 17, 2004 4:00 pm

The accuweather site has taken off the chance of snow on its extended forecast :cry:

I hope we still get something... ?

#29 Postby **gboudx** » Fri Dec 17, 2004 4:06 pm

YankeeGirl wrote:The accuweather site has taken off the chance of snow on its extended forecast I hope we still get something... ?

Do yourself a favor and do not get your hopes up or down based on what you see on accuweather beyond 4 or 5 days.

Website · #30 Postby **Brent** » Fri Dec 17, 2004 4:08 pm

James Spann, meterologist at ABC in Birmingham, AL guarantees SOMEONE in the Deep South will have a White Christmas. He thinks the 12z GFS is too far south but can't rule out it might be right.

http://video.wjla.com/jamesspann/spann.wmv

Fun week ahead. 8-)

#31 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Fri Dec 17, 2004 4:10 pm

gboudx wrote:
YankeeGirl wrote:The accuweather site has taken off the chance of snow on its extended forecast I hope we still get something... ?

Do yourself a favor and do not get your hopes up or down based on what you see on accuweather beyond 4 or 5 days.

Accuweather is SO NOT trust worthy!!!

Website · #32 Postby **Brent** » Fri Dec 17, 2004 4:12 pm

gboudx wrote:
YankeeGirl wrote:The accuweather site has taken off the chance of snow on its extended forecast I hope we still get something... ?

Do yourself a favor and do not get your hopes up or down based on what you see on accuweather beyond 4 or 5 days.

I learned a long time ago not to even GO to accuweather.com

They flip-flop more than the GFS on drugs.

The bottom line is... SOMEONE in the South will have a White Christmas. It's nothing to get your hopes up about too much since it's not written in stone it'll happen at any one particular location but this is the best chance for a White Christmas in DECADES for most places. It's something to watch.

If I had to guess... I'd say right now I think the 6z GFS is closer to reality with snow from Houston eastward into Central Alabama and Georgia(OK maybe it's wishful thinking since I'd have several inches with it and on the 12z would have ZERO).

southerngale · #33 Postby **southerngale** » Fri Dec 17, 2004 4:23 pm

A couple of excerpts from KFDM Ch.6 here in Beaumont - discussion.

IF YOU LIKE COLD TEMPERATURES YOU'LL LIKE THE EXTENDED FORECAST. SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR IN YEARS POSSIBLE BY CHRISTMAS...STAY TUNED

Too early to say how cold it will be but the potential is there for some of the coldest weather in years! Rememeber back in 1989 we dropped to 12 degrees with big problems with pipes across the area. Once again it's to early to say how cold it will get but as of this writing we could see teens for lows Christmas morning...stay tuned!

http://www.kfdm.com/weather.shtml

No mention of frozen precipitation...............yet, I hope!

breeze · #34 Postby **breeze** » Fri Dec 17, 2004 6:31 pm

Here's the NWS Forecast Discussion, Nashville, TN:

000
FXUS64 KOHX 172154
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
345 PM CST FRI DEC 17 2004

.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRY UPPER TROUGH MAIN FEATURES TONIGHT...WITH COLD TEMPERATURES
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST
AND APPROACHES THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE...
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 50S
WEST OF THE PLATEAU.

CLOUDS WILL GATHER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. GREATEST
MOISTURE INCREASE IS IN THE 1000/850-MB LAYER. 17/12Z MODEL RAIN
CHANCE REDUCTION FROM EARLIER RUNS. WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
FORECAST. COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAINLY
DRIVEN BY COLD ADVECTION SO ANY ACCUMS LIGHT.

MODELS RAPIDLY DECREASE CLOUDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH GFS
PROGGING H8 TEMPERATURES AT -20 C WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY BELOW FREEZING SUNDAY. CLOUDS AND WINDS
DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT...SO BACK INTO THE TEENS. GFS MOS DOWN TO 6 F
AT BNA MONDAY MORNING...AND BLENDED THIS WITH ETA MOS (17F).

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN WITH DANGEROUS SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS
LIKELY MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY NORTH PLATEAU. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND A QUICK WARMUP
WILL ENSUE. ARCTIC AIR WON'T MODIFY AS QUICK AS MODELS IMPLY.

CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD AS NEXT
SYSTEM FEATURES ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT. LONG RANGE MODELS BRING
CHANCE OF SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND GFS/LR
SHOWS A COUPLE OF INCHES POSSIBLE AT BNA BY 23/18Z. IF THIS OCCURS...
IT LOOKS COLD ENOUGH IN THE FAR EXTENDED FOR SNOW COVER ON
CHRISTMAS.

BNA BE 030/051 029/033 013 04-12
BEEEB 033/023 045/037 042/026 032/023 031 41-11333311
CKV BE 030/047 026/029 013 04-13
BEEEB 034/025 044/037 040/024 029/016 022 31-11333311
CSV BE 029/048 027/029 009 04-13
MBEBB 032/022 043/035 044/030 032/021 032 41111333311

&&

.BNA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

Of course, GFS over 48 hours out, but, they weren't even
mentioning this, yesterday!

Guest · #35 Postby **Guest** » Mon Dec 20, 2004 8:13 pm

Giving this a bump as it seems the GFS/EC may score on this.

Wish i had saved the models images from that day when i posted this.

06z gfs a better hit of snow Houston, TX east to Mobile, AL

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