My SOUTHERN snow weenies TX to FL -- this is for you...

[Brent]

I assume you think the GFS is too far south. The 6z and 12z runs showed South Alabama with most of the snow, Central Alabama with just a little and North Alabama with nothing. The 18z run misses us all together.

[wxguy25]

I assume you think the GFS is too far south. The 6z and 12z runs showed South Alabama with most of the snow, Central Alabama with just a little and North Alabama with nothing. The 18z run misses us all together.

the off cycle runs (06z, 18z) I only use for trends. Dont pay too much attention to it unless we keep seeing the same thing at 0z and 06z as well as other model support.

[CajunMama]

Woo Hoo! Just caught the weather on both local news channels. They're both showing 30% of snow for Christmas eve. Rob Perillo on KATC said "at the very least, we should see snow flurries on Christmas eve." He knows better than to not throw around the S word this far out unless we had a real shot at it.

Well Rob just burst my bubble! Winter precip could happen within a stone's throw of Acadiana.....why couldn't he say in Acadiana

[wxguy25]

Woo Hoo! Just caught the weather on both local news channels. They're both showing 30% of snow for Christmas eve. Rob Perillo on KATC said "at the very least, we should see snow flurries on Christmas eve." He knows better than to not throw around the S word this far out unless we had a real shot at it.

Well Rob just burst my bubble! Winter precip could happen within a stone's throw of Acadiana.....why couldn't he say in Acadiana

How about a tenth to a quarter inch of Liquid all snow In lafayette LA. That would burst some bubbles for sure. LOL!!

[JenyEliza]

SG, VB, CM, KC, Brent, and yes even Bron and Chad your ON NOTICE...

Possible significant winter storm for the SE US still on the table and the amount of cold air available might be underdone given the high to the north (MAJOR CAD situation...attention SF).

here is one potential scenario

as always, copy link to your address bar.

http://allwx.125mb.com/se_event_d57.jpg

Looks good to me---as long as area "A" isn't ICE.

Jeny, think your area should see mostly frozen precip .

I just had a look at the 12z GFS BUFKIT sounding at TLH, and the sounding looks isothermal through a deep layer between 700 and 900mb during the 108-120hr period w/ high RH values near the snow growth layer. IF this keeps up the next several runs things will get very interesting for N FL .

For those of you in the JAX, St. Augustine, JAX sounding shows an IP signal after 120hrs.

Oh joy, joy. ICE. NO THANKS. I'd rather have cold rain than ICE.

Jeny

[MGC]

I'd be happy with just a dusting......MGC

[wxguy25]

I'd be happy with just a dusting......MGC

What is your location, MGC?

[wxguy25]

Oh joy, joy. ICE. NO THANKS. I'd rather have cold rain than ICE.

Jeny

frozen in terms of Snow.

[southerngale]

SG, VB, CM, KC, Brent, and yes even Bron and Chad your ON NOTICE...

Possible significant winter storm for the SE US still on the table and the amount of cold air available might be underdone given the high to the north (MAJOR CAD situation...attention SF).

here is one potential scenario

as always, copy link to your address bar.

http://allwx.125mb.com/se_event_d57.jpg

I hope this verifies! I want snow soooooo bad!!

And to borrow Brent's words: I LOVE YOU!!

I LOVE ALL OF YOU!! I LOVE THE GFS!! (although I may end up hating it forever if it's wrong)


*sings Walking in a Winter Wonderland*

[Brent]

I'd be happy with just a dusting......MGC

For Christmas... an inch. But I'd really like 3-4" at least since it's been years since I've seen that much.

It doesn't officially count as a White Christmas unless they can measure it.

[JenyEliza]

Oh joy, joy. ICE. NO THANKS. I'd rather have cold rain than ICE.

Jeny

frozen in terms of Snow.

OH. Well, then...that's an entirely different story.

Why didn't you just say S-N-O-W?

[wxguy25]

Oh joy, joy. ICE. NO THANKS. I'd rather have cold rain than ICE.

Jeny

frozen in terms of Snow.

OH. Well, then...that's an entirely different story.

Why didn't you just say S-N-O-W?

Not sure. LOL

[JenyEliza]

Let's hope this isn't the ONLY snow we see in my neck of the woods:



Having lived in Atlanta since 1968, I know better than to get my hopes up for a White Christmas. So....I'm going to take a rather doubting position on this .... at least until Friday.

Jeny

[JenyEliza]

Oh joy, joy. ICE. NO THANKS. I'd rather have cold rain than ICE.

Jeny

frozen in terms of Snow.

OH. Well, then...that's an entirely different story.

Why didn't you just say S-N-O-W?

Not sure. LOL

That's OK....you gave the right answer in the end.

[Guest]

This would be a huge score for the GFS/EC if this verifies as i mentioned this threat last week after i caught onto it from the GFS of all things First.

BTW cant read your discussion or anything Wxguy25. Nothing there.

[Brent]

Let's hope this isn't the ONLY snow we see in my neck of the woods:



Having lived in Atlanta since 1968, I know better than to get my hopes up for a White Christmas. So....I'm going to take a rather doubting position on this .... at least until Friday.

Jeny

I'm trying HARD not to get my hopes up. I've seen this before(not around Christmas) and it always has, in recent memory, failed to pan out. It's either cold enough but too dry or with plenty of moisture and too warm. I'm quite concerned it'll be too dry here. I've seen it before. I remember what was supposed to be a big snow in January 2000... we were expected to get 3-5". Well, West Alabama and Mississippi did but it was too dry over here and we ended up with barely an inch. Atlanta got ice.

[Brent]

This would be a huge score for the GFS/EC if this verifies as i mentioned this threat last week after i caught onto it from the GFS of all things First.

BTW cant read your discussion or anything Wxguy25. Nothing there.

Copy and paste it in the address bar.

[wxguy25]

SG, VB, CM, KC, Brent, and yes even Bron and Chad your ON NOTICE...

Possible significant winter storm for the SE US still on the table and the amount of cold air available might be underdone given the high to the north (MAJOR CAD situation...attention SF).

here is one potential scenario

as always, copy link to your address bar.

http://allwx.125mb.com/se_event_d57.jpg

I hope this verifies! I want snow soooooo bad!!

And to borrow Brent's words: I LOVE YOU!!

I LOVE ALL OF YOU!! I LOVE THE GFS!! (although I may end up hating it forever if it's wrong)


*sings Walking in a Winter Wonderland*

For us men, The GFS is like an exwife --- you start out loving it at day 16 but then when it stops showing you what you want by D3, one has no other choice than to dump it for the girlfriend (the ECMWF).

[southerngale]

SG, VB, CM, KC, Brent, and yes even Bron and Chad your ON NOTICE...

Possible significant winter storm for the SE US still on the table and the amount of cold air available might be underdone given the high to the north (MAJOR CAD situation...attention SF).

here is one potential scenario

as always, copy link to your address bar.

http://allwx.125mb.com/se_event_d57.jpg

I hope this verifies! I want snow soooooo bad!!

And to borrow Brent's words: I LOVE YOU!!

I LOVE ALL OF YOU!! I LOVE THE GFS!! (although I may end up hating it forever if it's wrong)


*sings Walking in a Winter Wonderland*

For us men, The GFS is like an exwife --- you start out loving it at day 16 but then when it stops showing you what you want by 3, one has no other choice than to dump it for the girlfriend (the ECMWF).

I could love the girlfriend too. May I see her?

[wxguy25]

This would be a huge score for the GFS/EC if this verifies as i mentioned this threat last week after i caught onto it from the GFS of all things First.

BTW cant read your discussion or anything Wxguy25. Nothing there.

copy the link to the browser address bar. that should help.

http://allwx.125mb.com/se_event_d57.jpg

the bold statement is key in my playing up of this event.