Texas Winter 2013-2014

[richtrav]

Perhaps we shall have an 1820-1821 winter and go ice skating on Galveston bay? Or 1899.

Where did you hear that the Bay froze in 1820-1? I know 1800 and 1823 were cold winters but have never heard of 1821 being one.

Just out of curiosity, when was the last time a monster 1060+mb high pushed into the lower 48?

[northjaxpro]

Perhaps we shall have an 1820-1821 winter and go ice skating on Galveston bay? Or 1899.

Where did you hear that the Bay froze in 1820-1? I know 1800 and 1823 were cold winters but have never heard of 1821 being one.

Just out of curiosity, when was the last time a monster 1060+mb high pushed into the lower 48?

I believe during the historic arctic outbreak in December 1983, a huge Arctic High measured at 1060 mb moved down into Montana.

[Portastorm]

Perhaps we shall have an 1820-1821 winter and go ice skating on Galveston bay? Or 1899.

Where did you hear that the Bay froze in 1820-1? I know 1800 and 1823 were cold winters but have never heard of 1821 being one.

Just out of curiosity, when was the last time a monster 1060+mb high pushed into the lower 48?

I know the February 2011 winter event in Texas had something close to a 1060mb high as the main driver ... although it may have been upper 1050s. Prior to that? Heh ... probably 1980s.

[northjaxpro]

I think the arctic outbreaks of January 1985 and December 1989 had Arctic Highs in the high 1050s mb range. I certainly remember in '85 that the NWS office in Jacksonville set their all-time record low temp of 7 degrees during that historic event.

[ravyrn]

Perhaps we shall have an 1820-1821 winter and go ice skating on Galveston bay? Or 1899.

Where did you hear that the Bay froze in 1820-1? I know 1800 and 1823 were cold winters but have never heard of 1821 being one.

Just out of curiosity, when was the last time a monster 1060+mb high pushed into the lower 48?

http://www.texasreader.com/when-galveston-bay-froze-over.html
http://www.chron.com/sports/article/Tompkins-Documenting-Texas-coast-s-big-chills-1687256.php
http://books.google.com/books?id=tdWGo8ghoXMC&pg=PA27&lpg=PA27&dq=bay+of+galveston+froze+1820&source=bl&ots=qcDckJ8brN&sig=it_Pplc-Vv5x7DcjBjSDOC6IExY&hl=en&sa=X&ei=ESZsUq3LK8SI2wXxzIHQBg&ved=0CDsQ6AEwAg#v=onepage&q=bay%20of%20galveston%20froze%201820&f=false

[richtrav]

Perhaps we shall have an 1820-1821 winter and go ice skating on Galveston bay? Or 1899.

Where did you hear that the Bay froze in 1820-1? I know 1800 and 1823 were cold winters but have never heard of 1821 being one.

Just out of curiosity, when was the last time a monster 1060+mb high pushed into the lower 48?

http://www.texasreader.com/when-galveston-bay-froze-over.html
http://www.chron.com/sports/article/Tompkins-Documenting-Texas-coast-s-big-chills-1687256.php
http://books.google.com/books?id=tdWGo8ghoXMC&pg=PA27&lpg=PA27&dq=bay+of+galveston+froze+1820&source=bl&ots=qcDckJ8brN&sig=it_Pplc-Vv5x7DcjBjSDOC6IExY&hl=en&sa=X&ei=ESZsUq3LK8SI2wXxzIHQBg&ved=0CDsQ6AEwAg#v=onepage&q=bay%20of%20galveston%20froze%201820&f=false

Thanks for those articles. All seem to point to one source, Jane Long, for the 1820-1 event. I'm wondering when this she first documented this since 1822-1823 was known to have been a very severe winter in Louisiana and peoples' memory get fuzzy over time. As an example, for years a big snow of 1866 was reported to have occurred in Brownsville, even being promoted as such in some of the old NWS publications, but when you look up the records there's no doubt it was in 1867. The fish kill stories are interesting, most roughly match up with extreme cold outbreaks but a few don't - I would have expected 1852, 1888, 1895 and 1962 to be in there but don't see them while other years like 1924 weren't all that cold - it must have been in December and even then the cold wasn't THAT bad, not up to 2011 levels certainly. It was fairly early though, which could have had something to do with it.

I would have guessed the last time a 1060 high might have entered the lower 48 could have been Feb 89 but that's solely based on how strong the high was up in Alaska in late Jan before it came down so that's just pure speculation. I don't remember how strong 1996 was. I recall the Feb 2011 outbreak being around 1054-1056mb (and wasn't Dec '89 about the same? I know it's the only extremely severe freeze since 1899 that was not in the elite 60+ club down here in SoTex yet ironically it was the worst except for 1899).

[lrak]

I hope this isn't too far out for a forecast but I need to buy supplies for a boy scout camp out. It's on the weekend of November 16th and 17th. Ball park estimates appreciated. Cold, cool, or as waxman57 would like it to be

Location will be Goose Island, Rockport Texas.

Thanks!

[gboudx]

Some winter hope for the cold mongers out there?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-2 ... w-now.html

Snow falling over Siberia is raising the prospect for frigid temperatures in New York come January.

The weather half a world from Central Park can set off atmospheric events that result in icy air descending from the North Pole in December and January, driving U.S. temperatures down and natural gas and heating oil use up, according to Judah Cohen, director of seasonal forecasting at Atmosphere & Environmental Research in Lexington, Massachusetts.

“It’s the best winter predictor that we have,” Cohen said in a telephone interview. “We haven’t made a forecast yet, but we’re watching it closely and the snow cover has definitely been above normal so far.”

The more ground covered by snow across northern Europe and Asia at the end of October, the greater the chances of triggering a phenomenon known as the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation. That would flood North America, Europe and East Asia with polar air and possibly erect a blocking effect in the North Atlantic that would bottle up the cold in the U.S.

....

[Portastorm]

The North Texas branch of the Portastorm Weather Center (Ntxw) and HQ have been discussing the teleconnections for this winter. There's actually a lot of conflicting signals out there about whether or not we'll see a predominantly -AO/NAO couplet or +AO/NAO. PWC isn't sold on either yet but this article is interesting.

Ntxw points out, and rightfully so, that the Pacific is more of a driver for Texas winters than the Atlantic. We will all need to closely monitor the EPO indices. More to come soon!

[gboudx]

Can't wait for that update.

If we look at the CaptinCrunch Halloween predictor for Winter, its looking like a nearly seasonable prediction. Highs in NTX forecasted to be mid-upper 70's on Thursday.

[CaptinCrunch]

:uarrow:

Can't wait for that update.

If we look at the CaptinCrunch Halloween predictor for Winter, its looking like a nearly seasonable prediction. Highs in NTX forecasted to be mid-upper 70's on Thursday.

Well let's see? The forecasted high for Halloween is 77, however there should be lingering rain well into the morning of the 31st. Now depending on the timing for the rain to be out of the D/FW area and how soon the skies can clear out will determine just how close we get to that forecasted high. I'm expecting the cloud cover to linger into the afternoon keeping temps down and our high only topping out around 73 degrees. Now the forecasted low for Halloween night is 50, so if we do cool off into the mid to lower 50's and the high only tops out in the lower 70's this put's at an over all seasonal average Temp for Halloween which would translate to an Average North Texas Winter

[Portastorm]

:uarrow:

Can't wait for that update.

If we look at the CaptinCrunch Halloween predictor for Winter, its looking like a nearly seasonable prediction. Highs in NTX forecasted to be mid-upper 70's on Thursday.

Well let's see? The forecasted high for Halloween is 77, however there should be lingering rain well into the morning of the 31st. Now depending on the timing for the rain to be out of the D/FW area and how soon the skies can clear out will determine just how close we get to that forecasted high. I'm expecting the cloud cover to linger into the afternoon keeping temps down and our high only topping out around 73 degrees. Now the forecasted low for Halloween night is 50, so if we do cool off into the mid to lower 50's and the high only tops out in the lower 70's this put's at an over all seasonal average Temp for Halloween which would translate to an Average North Texas Winter

We've been waiting for you, Captin! Nice to see you back. Your famous Halloween analog for North Texas' winter has been discussed lately.

[CaptinCrunch]

I'm always creeping on the S2K weather forum.....

I said last year at Halloween that Winter 2012/13 would suck, and it did...lol. I also said Winter 2013/14 would be one to watch and I think it will be. We are already having a much wetter Fall than the last 2 years, and wetter Falls have always transitioned to a colder winter so we shall see.

[JDawg512]

Well guess this Halloween won't he cold afterall. A shame cause I wont be able to wear my costume cause its way too hot to wear in temps above 60 degrees.

[Ntxw]

It's November! Finally!!! Awaiting that 0C isotherm to clear Texas.

While awaiting storm2k's return I put together some quick thoughts very plain and simple for winter. It's likely to be a +AO winter. This will mean a very cold arctic and likely less cold mid latitudes. Typically there will be a dominant somewhere in the far north that will send very cold air down. The past several years it has been the -NAO dominance which send much of it to Europe and adjacent Asia. The North Pacific has been very unfavorable for us either bottling it up in Alaska or Canada. The screaming Pac jet from the +EPO has given us mild Pacific air.

October is a critical month to forecasting winter. So using that ideology I'm going to say we will see our first -EPO in several years as it has been negative in reverse from the other signals. 93-94 is a good analog as well as 61-63 period. A couple of periods to look out for, of course the week leading to and after Christmas always usually brings us a chill. January I believe this year will favor the most cold and snow opportunities as opposed to the last two.

[aggiecutter]

It's November! Finally!!! Awaiting that 0C isotherm to clear Texas.

While awaiting storm2k's return I put together some quick thoughts very plain and simple for winter. It's likely to be a +AO winter. This will mean a very cold arctic and likely less cold mid latitudes. Typically there will be a dominant somewhere in the far north that will send very cold air down. The past several years it has been the -NAO dominance which send much of it to Europe and adjacent Asia. The North Pacific has been very unfavorable for us either bottling it up in Alaska or Canada. The screaming Pac jet from the +EPO has given us mild Pacific air.

October is a critical month to forecasting winter. So using that ideology I'm going to say we will see our first -EPO in several years as it has been negative in reverse from the other signals. 93-94 is a good analog as well as 61-63 period. A couple of periods to look out for, of course the week leading to and after Christmas always usually brings us a chill. January I believe this year will favor the most cold and snow opportunities as opposed to the last two.

I've noticed that JB(Weatherbell), the Weather Channel, and several other weather outlets have forecasted an above to much above temperature profile for Texas and the southern plains for November.

[natlib]

Larry Cosgrove is using 1981-82 as a possible analog for this winter. Anyone have any data on that winter to share?

[wxman57]

Larry Cosgrove is using 1981-82 as a possible analog for this winter. Anyone have any data on that winter to share?

Was checking Houston record highs/lows for Dec-Feb and I have good news and bad news. The good news was the record high of 81 on Dec. 22, 1981. Bad news is the low of 12 on Jan 11, 1982 and 19 degrees a couple of days later. Those were the only records I saw. It was my second winter in Houston and I don't remember much about it. I remember the winter of 1983-84 quite well, though...

[gpsnowman]

Larry Cosgrove is using 1981-82 as a possible analog for this winter. Anyone have any data on that winter to share?

Was checking Houston record highs/lows for Dec-Feb and I have good news and bad news. The good news was the record high of 81 on Dec. 22, 1981. Bad news is the low of 12 on Jan 11, 1982 and 19 degrees a couple of days later. Those were the only records I saw. It was my second winter in Houston and I don't remember much about it. I remember the winter of 1983-84 quite well, though...

1983-84.I think that was the winter Dallas had 12 days of below 32 weather with a couple if snow days mixed in. I was a kid in San Antonio at the time and it was cold there. Did Houston get similar weather or something close?

[Tireman4]

Larry Cosgrove is using 1981-82 as a possible analog for this winter. Anyone have any data on that winter to share?

Was checking Houston record highs/lows for Dec-Feb and I have good news and bad news. The good news was the record high of 81 on Dec. 22, 1981. Bad news is the low of 12 on Jan 11, 1982 and 19 degrees a couple of days later. Those were the only records I saw. It was my second winter in Houston and I don't remember much about it. I remember the winter of 1983-84 quite well, though...

!983-84.I think that was that the winter Dallas had 12 days of below 32 weather with a couple if snow days mixed in. I was a kid in San Antonio at the time and it was cold there. Did Houston get similar weather or something close?

Yeah it was pretty rough. We got down to 13 degrees in Santa Fe (a town 17 miles north of Galveston) on Christmas day in 1983. I know that there was "lake effect" snow on Clear Lake. I was a senior in high school during that winter.