Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Ntxw]

All very good advice. It is a good idea to winterize your home and car, if it does get that cold I suspect many vehicles aren't prepared for it as well. North Texas has seen what ice can do, and my suspect is that with a leading Arctic front someone somewhere in the state will experience an ice storm again.

There has been ample warning with what has occurred so far, this is not something out of blues. It has been in the making since March! We saw record cold in March, record cold in July, record cold in late fall...the trend continues as long as the Pacific says it is so.

[Ntxw]

This.



Ridiculous.

What else is crazy is that the recent ridge we saw, the models did not get it right they were weaker than what actually happened 5 days out.

[PTrackerLA]

And as per yesterday, 18z GFS completely backs off of cold air. Temperatures 20-25 degrees warmer for Christmas. Long time for this one to play out, time will tell .

[knoxtnhorn]

That winter of '83...

Had a large water pipe burst under the road in front of our house - Richardson, TX. Went from really warm (we were playing basketball in our shorts) to something like teens overnight. That water pipe left a layer of ice about 1 foot deep for hundreds of feet. IIRC, water was actually shooting out of the street cracks several feet in the air.

Question.

Can anyone speak to the ridge that won't move it's a&^ out of the SE? Normally, we (Knoxville) get a tad more or less severe version of winter weather than North Texas. I.E. There have been time where y'all got ice/snow and we got rain (this week) and times where y'all got rain and we got the bad weather.
Looking at the maps - especially 10 days - is that cold going to be able to move out or break through the current ridge in the SE so that I can see a flake or two?

[Ntxw]

Follow the ensembles. It's moot to look at the surface right now.

Monster ridge still depicted formation just before truncation.

[dhweather]

I'll never forget 83 or 89. In central Mississippi, it was single and teen digits for a long time, the Ross Barnett reservoir froze solid in some parts (never happened before), water main lines 2-3 feet deep were bursting left and right. It was horrible to say the least. So many homes ruined by pipes bursting.

About the only people that have or had it as bad as Oncor were the water utility workers trying to fix a broken 10" main in 10 degrees, waist deep in cold muddy water. At least they couldn't get electrocuted.

[Portastorm]

And as per yesterday, 18z GFS completely backs off of cold air. Temperatures 20-25 degrees warmer for Christmas. Long time for this one to play out, time will tell .

I won't publicly insist that what we have seen for the last day or two from both the ensembles and most of the operational runs of the GFS and Euro (and Canadian, really) for the Christmas period will verify. I agree that it's still a bit early to jump on any bandwagons. HOWEVER ... it's hard to argue against a number of factors currently in play which support what the ensembles show. You cannot pick one operational run of the GFS and compare it to a series of ensemble runs. It's apples and oranges. The ensembles are a collection of model runs and the ensemble mean (which are the maps you've seen here today) is essentially the average (or mean) of those individual runs.

Yes, the 18z GFS operational run does derive from a collection of individual model runs with varying factors/algorithims. But it does not contain nearly the data which these ensemble means contain. I wouldn't dismiss today's overall theme just because the 18z GFS op run looks like it was drawn by wxman57!

[HockeyTx82]

I think we need we need a few more horizontal lines on the metograms on this site. We have one for freezing, why not one for wxman57 and his levels of discomfort or happiness.

[Texas Snowman]

Here's what I DO know for certain.

Denison, Sherman, and many other Grayson County schools are closed again tomorrow. Even after a day of sunshine and temps above freezing, the side roads, some sections of the main roads, and many of the parking lots are still covered with significant amounts of ice and slush. I almost slid into some one this afternoon backing out of my parking spot at work. And the nearest someone was three empty spots away.

Things are still slick enough that local school officials started calling school off for tomorrow before 4 p.m. BTW, this is the fourth day of no school since the storm last Thursday night.

In my front yard, there is still an ice pack that is more than an inch thick. Tomorrow will be the sixth day of this sitting on the ground. An utterly amazing storm and cold spell.

[Portastorm]

Here's what I DO know for certain.

Denison, Sherman, and many other Grayson County schools are closed again tomorrow. Even after a day of sunshine and temps above freezing, the side roads, some sections of the main roads, and many of the parking lots are still covered with significant amounts of ice and slush. I almost slid into some one this afternoon backing out of my parking spot at work. And the nearest someone was three empty spots away.

Things are still slick enough that local school officials started calling school off for tomorrow before 4 p.m. BTW, this is the fourth day of no school since the storm last Thursday night.

In my front yard, there is still an ice pack that is more than an inch thick. Tomorrow will be the sixth day of this sitting on the ground. An utterly amazing storm and cold spell.

Yeah, that IS amazing! Wow ... what a storm for y'all. Definitely has to go down in the record books as one of the worst in that area, right?

[wxman57]

And as per yesterday, 18z GFS completely backs off of cold air. Temperatures 20-25 degrees warmer for Christmas. Long time for this one to play out, time will tell .

Whew! Glad the threat of cold weather is now over...

[Texas Snowman]

Yes sir, certainly one of the "Top 5" storms in the time that I've lived here.

Dallas' CBS11 TV met Larry Mowry just posted this on Twitter:

@CBS11Larry Great View of Ice Pack in North Texas http://cbsloc.al/1dnsYiy

[Kalrany]

Trying to avoid hyperbole here, but those maps are just downright ugly. If that stuff verifies ... wow .... just wow!

Just as in 1983 and 1989, the cold is forecast to arrive just before Christmas when may people will be out of town. If such cold does hit, then many will return home to flooded homes from pipes bursting in the attic. Not good. And I'll be found frozen on the couch...

I saw the freezing temps in your Houston metrogram post prior. What about right on the coast? I am heading up to Michigan for about 2 weeks just before then. Do you think there could be a freezing issue right on the water, or will we be able to not worry about it?

[Texas Snowman]

One of our major employers here in Grayson County is closed again tomorrow. They measured a reported three inches of ice on the roof and it is said to be sagging. Engineers have said it needs to be one inch or less.

The roof of the Boys/Girls Club in Sherman buckled and collapsed a day or two ago from the weight of the ice. And some apartment parking awnings have gone down.

Heck of a winter storm...especially considering that it's just now Dec. 10th!

[Texas Snowman]

From CBS11's Larry Mowry on his blog:

"...in the past 5 days the temperature at DFW has failed to reach 40 degrees. I went over the record books and found that the last time we had 5 days in a row with temperatures below 40 degrees in the month of December was 1983. December 1983 was also the coldest December on record. And records go back 114 years."

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I'm leaving Thursday to visit cycloneye in Puerto rico and will be coming back christmas eve - eve. Hopefully just in time for some real winter if you guys over in Texas will quit being so greedy and share some with LA. But of course we know how reliable models are 12 days out. Think there is about as much chance of them being right as there is of saban leaving bama for Texas

[katheria]

I would like to file a protest against Canada and its inability to control the transport of cold air into our country. The one bright spot I can see is the highs (and lows) in the 70s before the big plunge near Christmas. My only hope is that the 15-day GFS won't verify, which usually can be counted upon.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/iahgfsx12zdec10.gif

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/dfwgfsx12zdec10.gif

ill second that protest

I think the models are in triple la la land (atleast im praying that they are)

i might as well pack now and go live with my friends in Palmer, Alaska
I will be warmer there

1989, i remember it BIG TIME... pipes burst in a bathroom, one in the attic over my bedroom, lived in a motel for over a week, was not a FUN time........

cold is nice but there's a limit , unless you grow up as a kid in the cold weather, u never really get used to it, its nice to visit for a few days...but it needs to go back where it belongs...

[Ntxw]

Speaking of petition, I took a visit to the Canadian thread and boy are they feeling it! I made mention of the petition but as Tireman4 said, they have no mercy for wxman57. I stole Ms Screamer's image and it may very well depict our future come Christmas week.



I do not own the above image nor did I make it. All credit goes to whomever created...not valid in vt, nh, ct, etc.

[PTrackerLA]

If I'm going to lose my Queen palms to this type of cold they better be covered in snow! Wxman your concern over the cold has me taking this threat seriously. I wouldn't know where to start to truly "winterize" my home but the thought of pipes breaking in the attic is enough to make me educate myself this weekend.

[katheria]

with wind chill..............