Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Iceresistance]

Well uhhh… this is interesting:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/temp_probhazards_d8_14_contours.png

I remember something similar before February happened last year. Anyone have the graphic saved?

I do believe so, I'm looking for one on the previous forum. (TX Winter 2020-2021)

[TropicalTundra]

LAMPASAS AIRPORT REPORTING LIGHT SNOW.....

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.p ... d3s1ojMKeE

[Brent]

I live in Georgia.
And in the dead center of the area of the most snow.

I can't believe it's apparently been almost 4 years since the Atlanta airport measured snow

Ouch. But fortunately for me I am in the foothills so we get more snow than Atlanta usually.

Yeah the airport is really in a bad spot lol even the famous blizzard in 93 the airport still only reported 4 inches while a foot was reported in the NW metro

[HockeyTx82]

I can't believe it's apparently been almost 4 years since the Atlanta airport measured snow

Ouch. But fortunately for me I am in the foothills so we get more snow than Atlanta usually.

Yeah the airport is really in a bad spot lol even the famous blizzard in 93 the airport still only reported 4 inches while a foot was reported in the NW metro

Wonder if they will shut down the city again.....

[Haris]

I can't believe it's apparently been almost 4 years since the Atlanta airport measured snow

Ouch. But fortunately for me I am in the foothills so we get more snow than Atlanta usually.

Yeah the airport is really in a bad spot lol even the famous blizzard in 93 the airport still only reported 4 inches while a foot was reported in the NW metro

My family lives in Marietta in Cobb county NW of Atlanta and got nearly 14” in 2017 vs 2” at hartsfield. I’ve been pinging them as 2” has shut the city down like 2014

[wxman57]

In other news, 12Z Euro dumps 8-10" of snow in Atlanta this weekend. Giant swath of 1-2 ft of snow up the east coast but west of the big cities. Meanwhile, I remain trapped inside my house with a 3pm temperature a frigid 55F. Got my new electric blanket, though, and it's quite warm.

[Iceresistance]

Well uhhh… this is interesting:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/temp_probhazards_d8_14_contours.png

I remember something similar before February happened last year. Anyone have the graphic saved?

I do believe so, I'm looking for one on the previous forum. (TX Winter 2020-2021)

Additional post to note since i forgot it previously: I believe that there is a Archive on the Climate Prediction Center for previous outlooks.

[Ntxw]

Well uhhh… this is interesting:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/temp_probhazards_d8_14_contours.png

I remember something similar before February happened last year. Anyone have the graphic saved?

CPC has an archive of their forecast. Posted below are the 6-10 and 8-14 day for last Feb starting on the 1st for the pre-Valentines and the week of. The core of the cold was predicted to be north and east.





The models at that time were showing a big eastern-centric trough.

[Ntxw]

I live in Georgia.
And in the dead center of the area of the most snow.

I can't believe it's apparently been almost 4 years since the Atlanta airport measured snow

Ouch. But fortunately for me I am in the foothills so we get more snow than Atlanta usually.

I hope you enjoy your snow! The models are trending more amped this is likely to be a big one for Alabama, Georgia and the Carolinas. Memorable.

Post awhile back aged well . It was pretty good indication the pattern was favorable for snow.

Lucky. It’s supposed to snow to the north, west, and south of me but the Appalachians essentially block the snow for me. Buford Ga never gets snow.

Don't worry! You may get your chance mid-month!

[Brent]

Well uhhh… this is interesting:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/temp_probhazards_d8_14_contours.png

I remember something similar before February happened last year. Anyone have the graphic saved?

CPC has an archive of their forecast. Posted below are the 6-10 and 8-14 day for last Feb starting on the 1st for the pre-Valentines and the week of. The core of the cold was predicted to be north and east.

https://i.imgur.com/7OoGEvw.gif

https://i.imgur.com/kgjVdPI.gif

The models at that time were showing a big eastern-centric trough.

And here we see this weekend storm same thing... Trending more west definitely a lot of long range potential if that's gonna be a trend

[Ntxw]

I remember something similar before February happened last year. Anyone have the graphic saved?

CPC has an archive of their forecast. Posted below are the 6-10 and 8-14 day for last Feb starting on the 1st for the pre-Valentines and the week of. The core of the cold was predicted to be north and east.

https://i.imgur.com/7OoGEvw.gif

https://i.imgur.com/kgjVdPI.gif

The models at that time were showing a big eastern-centric trough.

And here we see this weekend storm same thing... Trending more west definitely a lot of long range potential if that's gonna be a trend

Yeah there is a skewed view that the models foresaw the outbreak in Feb and nailed it particularly the GFS. This wasn't entirely true. They saw a deep cold air mass was coming but onset was dump it into the eastern trough. It wasn't until the several days leading up to it that the GFS kept showing low, low temps several runs a day to create the perception it nailed it. But compared to other models it did well leading up to, but even before that underestimated the push. Most of the models, even the GFS for a time, hung the cold air to the North and we were to warm into the 50s and 60s! But in reality even before the big cold we were hovering in a long duration freeze.

[InfernoFlameCat]

I can't believe it's apparently been almost 4 years since the Atlanta airport measured snow

Ouch. But fortunately for me I am in the foothills so we get more snow than Atlanta usually.

I hope you enjoy your snow! The models are trending more amped this is likely to be a big one for Alabama, Georgia and the Carolinas. Memorable.

Post awhile back aged well . It was pretty good indication the pattern was favorable for snow.

Lucky. It’s supposed to snow to the north, west, and south of me but the Appalachians essentially block the snow for me. Buford Ga never gets snow.

Don't worry! You may get your chance mid-month!

Yes and the pattern appears to continue to favor snow into next month! Nice call!.

[txtwister78]

From FWD NWS AFD

"Models and ensembles have shown some trends with the 12Z package
toward a more significant and farther west short wave dropping
through the Lower Mississippi Valley and into the in situ long
wave East CONUS trough axis on Saturday and Sunday. Even though
the extended forecast remains dry for the CWA, these trends will
have to be monitored closely in the coming day or two - because a
continued trend westward could at least warrant some pcpn chances
for eastern zones in this time frame. This trough has the
potential to spur significant surface cyclogenesis to the east and
wintry weather on the north side of the low. Right now confidence
is pretty high those concerns will remain to the north and east,
but it is something to definitely keep an eye on".

[bubba hotep]

We're not done trending with the weekend system either. Euro has seen some sig shifts west/south. Keep it going and who knows. Potent shortwave for sure.

https://i.imgur.com/hw7v9kO.gif

Keep waiting for a run that shows the diving s/w capture the Baja cutoff and then "Boom"

[Ntxw]

We're not done trending with the weekend system either. Euro has seen some sig shifts west/south. Keep it going and who knows. Potent shortwave for sure.

https://i.imgur.com/hw7v9kO.gif

Keep waiting for a run that shows the diving s/w capture the Baja cutoff and then "Boom"

I wish but that's like asking for snow on Christmas!

But we can keep chipping away. 18z does it a little more, by Thursday maybe we can get vmax into New Mexico?

[Iceresistance]

We're not done trending with the weekend system either. Euro has seen some sig shifts west/south. Keep it going and who knows. Potent shortwave for sure.

https://i.imgur.com/hw7v9kO.gif

Keep waiting for a run that shows the diving s/w capture the Baja cutoff and then "Boom"

I wish but that's like asking for snow on Christmas!

But we can keep chipping away. 18z does it a little more, by Thursday maybe we can get vmax into New Mexico?

https://i.imgur.com/f4scWRw.gif

It goes through Oklahoma right now, maybe into the Texas Panhandle/Western Oklahoma by the same timeframe?

[HockeyTx82]

So are we talking about two different things?

This weekend, what's going on and where? This trend is looking good for what and who?

Long range? What, where and when? Feb 2021 2.0?

[Haris]

So are we talking about two different things?

This weekend, what's going on and where? This trend is looking good for what and who?

Long range? What, where and when? Feb 2021 2.0?

Weekend isn’t gonna be anything special. At most light flurries for N/NE TX if system can move W enough. Most everything stays between Little Rock and Atlanta up to Raleigh NC.

[Iceresistance]

So are we talking about two different things?

This weekend, what's going on and where? This trend is looking good for what and who?

Long range? What, where and when? Feb 2021 2.0?

Weekend isn’t gonna be anything special. At most light flurries for N/NE TX if system can move W enough. Most everything stays between Little Rock and Atlanta up to Raleigh NC.

Don't forget Oklahoma & Missouri!

[Iceresistance]

18z GFS also featuring the next winter weather system with Rain/Snow mix for Northern Texas & into Oklahoma.
The Ice part is in 2 areas now:

NE Texas & The Texarkana area
And Central to NW Texas (Before the Panhandle)

ETA: At +240 Hours, I've spotted a Trough near Baja California, but it dissipated before it could create a winter storm . . .