Texas Winter 2022-2023

[txwxwatcher]

One thing that all models agree on is that the coldest morning will be next Friday.  Temperatures in Houston range from 15 (CMC/CMC ensembles) to 28 (GFS).  Euro operational and ICON next coldest at 20F and 17F, respective on Friday.  EC ensembles are close to GFS ensembles - considerably less cold, with a hard freeze of 25 on Friday followed by a couple light freezes Sat/Sun. I would add that the EC and ICON both indicate a short wave moving across Texas on Christmas Eve. No precip with the Euro, but the ICON does indicate light snow in south-central Texas. It doesn't go out far enough to see any extent of the snow. Moisture would be limited to down south. Nothing up in the D-FW area.

Still no really cold air in northern Canada, though it remains quite cold in Alaska. Generally, cold in Alaska means warmer down here. Watch for any warming in Alaska in the coming days. I'm hoping that the GFS is too cold and that we will remain above freezing. However, I suspect the end result will be a low around 24 on Friday +/- 5 degrees. Not as cold Sat/Sun/Mon. With that short wave moving across, it would not be impossible to see snow in Houston on Christmas Eve. Moisture would be limited, though. Not a repeat of 2004.

I've reinforced my wall as much as I can. My jet is fueled and ready to depart on a moment's notice. However, if there is a chance of snow here Christmas Eve then I'll hang around for that. I've always said that the only use for cold air is to produce snow.

http://wxman57.com/images/Models00Z17.JPG

Thank you for this comprehensive assessment. In an environment like that with limited moisture, what are the upper limits of the amount of snow a shortwave could generate (are we talking a trace, up to an inch, etc)?

[Gotwood]

So the cold made its way over to North America?

[Iceresistance]

So the cold made its way over to North America?

I believe that a solid chunk of it moved to this part of the world.

Also, welcome to the team!

[Itryatgolf]

The cold is coming. No denying that. I'm hoping sometime in January we will have our opportunity at a winter event. A better pattern configuration that allow that to be realized

[Ntxw]

No one promised any snow . Just glad we can get real cold in December again especially just in time for the holiday. December is quite warm a lot especially in recent times. It's no colder than your average November most years of late.

And it's not just getting a 'little cold.' 15-20 for lows is typically DFW's annual low range now so this is at least on par with the coldest most years no less peak December lows tend to range 25-30F. Suspect it may get colder than that.

[Iceresistance]

No one promised any snow . Just glad we can get real cold in December again especially just in time for the holiday. December is quite warm a lot especially in recent times. It's no colder than your average November most years of late.

And it's not just getting a 'little cold.' 15-20 for lows is typically DFW's annual low range now so this is at least on par with the coldest most years no less peak December lows tend to range 25-30F. Suspect it may get colder than that.

The snow is just the icing on the cake.

I just saw the 6z run, snow all the way down to DFW!

[Texas Snow]

No one promised any snow . Just glad we can get real cold in December again especially just in time for the holiday. December is quite warm a lot especially in recent times. It's no colder than your average November most years of late.

And it's not just getting a 'little cold.' 15-20 for lows is typically DFW's annual low range now so this is at least on par with the coldest most years no less peak December lows tend to range 25-30F. Suspect it may get colder than that.

The snow is just the icing on the cake.

I just saw the 6z run, snow all the way down to DFW!

As WxMan57 has told us in the past, just throw out the gray areas on the snow map. I wouldn’t get too excited yet fellow DFW’ers but it’s better than seeing nothing. Now if other models follow suit and we can start a trend…

[Ntxw]

Tues-Weds heights rise across the northern half of the state as the outside fringe to the HP dome bleeds south. Would not be surprised at all if temp forecast increasingly fall for this period/bust. As with most severe cold episodes it will be cold already well ahead of the actual event.

[gpsnowman]

Tues-Weds heights rise across the northern half of the state as the outside fringe to the HP dome bleeds south. Would not be surprised at all if temp forecast increasingly fall for this period/bust. As with most severe cold episodes it will be cold already well ahead of the actual event.

Noticed already with some of the local oitlooks. Instead of temps getting back into the 50s they have trended back down to the 40s. I do believe temps will come in colder with the arctic blast. Moisture will have to be worked out probably early next week.

[Texas Snow]

NWSFWD has trended down temps in their confidence forecasts as well

The main highlight in the long term period is the arrival of an
unseasonably strong cold front on Thursday. As the Arctic airmass
spills south and temperatures fall through the day, expect strong
north winds around 20-25 MPH with gusts upwards of 30-35 MPH. There
is high confidence temperatures will be well below normal through
the holiday weekend. However, there is still disagreement among
deterministic and ensemble guidance on the timing and strength of
the upper level trough, which will likely result in adjustments to
the forecast over the next few days. There are three questions
that we will hopefully have the answer to as guidance comes into
better agreement next week:

1) How cold temperatures will be through the weekend?
2) Will temperatures remain below freezing for an extended period
of time?
3) Will there be any precipitation?

Over the past few days, guidance has trended colder Thursday
through the holiday weekend. There is high confidence (80% or
greater) low temperatures will fall into the teens across all of
North and Central Texas Thursday night and medium confidence
(~60%) temperatures will fall into the single digits along the Red
River and portions of the Big Country. While there is a chance
temperatures may fall into the single digits elsewhere, the chance
decreases further south and east. One notable change in the
forecast is that temperatures may remain below 32 degrees until
Christmas Eve (Saturday) across most of North and Central Texas.
There is a medium to high confidence (60% or greater) of high
temperatures below 32 degrees for most of the region Friday and
lows in the teens and low 20s Friday night.

As far as the potential for any precipitation, we`ll have to
continue to monitor the timing and placement of the upper level
trough. There may be a brief window early Thursday morning for
light precipitation ahead of the strong cold front along the Red
River, but chances remain low (less than 20%). The rest of the
holiday weekend looks to be precip-free for now with an
exceptionally drier airmass in place.

[Iceresistance]

ICON is being weird, the 12z ICON shunted it eastward compared to 6z and 0z.

[Ntxw]

ICON is being weird, the 12z ICON shunted it eastward compared to 6z and 0z.

It has a bigger HP than prior runs but erodes it as deep cyclogenesis happens over the midwest. ECR is sharp on this run.

[Iceresistance]

ICON is being weird, the 12z ICON shunted it eastward compared to 6z and 0z.

It has a bigger HP than prior runs but erodes it as deep cyclogenesis happens over the midwest. ECR is sharp on this run.

Still erodes it very fast.

Just noticed that the 500 mb Heights are further south and west compared to the other runs on the 12z ICON

[Smurfwicked]

Just got some sleet in Northern Galveston County for about 10 minutes.

[bubba hotep]

ICON is being weird, the 12z ICON shunted it eastward compared to 6z and 0z.

A combination of NATL wave breaking not being favorable and the n/s energy being strung out across Canada. There is no room for ridging to amp across the EC. Specifically, prior to D5.

[Iceresistance]

We're barely into the 12z GFS, and there is already a strong difference compared to the past 2 runs.


https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_z500a_us_fh96_trend.gif

[Ntxw]

Yeah 12z GFS is more dig. Still got to see if goes cyclogenesis to the north.

[wxman57]

Thank you for this comprehensive assessment. In an environment like that with limited moisture, what are the upper limits of the amount of snow a shortwave could generate (are we talking a trace, up to an inch, etc)?

The question, as far as any potential snow amounts, is how much moisture will be available. The deeper the cold air, the less the moisture. I'm thinking that moisture would be rather limited, so less than an inch. Perhaps just a dusting. Note that I'm not forecasting any snow for SE TX yet, just saying it cannot be ruled out. Of note is that my cold-mongering coworker of 30+ years thinks the warmer GFS may be closer to what we'll see. I hope he's right.

[bubba hotep]

Yeah 12z GFS is more dig. Still got to see if goes cyclogenesis to the north.

Better spacing in the northern stream s/w allowing heights to rise a bit across the East.

[Iceresistance]

1068 mb in Montana in under a week!?


https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_20.png