#2039 Postby gpsnowman » Wed Dec 31, 2014 9:59 am
Steve McCauley10 mins · Edited · .The stage is now set for the development of a wintry mix across north Texas. Here in the Metroplex, it is not expected to begin until after midnight tonight. A broad area of sleet and freezing rain will approach from the southwest and should cover the northwest half of north Texas (including most of the Metroplex except the SE corner) by daybreak Thursday. Southeastern areas will see a cold rain.
Once this morning's new weather data sets come in, we will have the latest l...ook at where that freeze line is expected to be, but the overall outlook does not change. The farther west you are in the Metroplex, the more significant the ice will be. The farther east you go the amount of time for frozen precipitation becomes less and less. The transition to all rain will progress from SE to NW throughout Thursday morning until ALL DFW area locations go to a cold rain by Thursday afternoon.
One VERY INTERESTING observation I would like to point out: the Tech model goes for ALL RAIN for ALL locations for ALL times in the Metroplex, including Denton County! It, like all other computer models, thinks there will be a layer of warm air aloft - sort of like a cap - and the rain will be heavy enough that it will drag down this warm air quickly raising surface temperatures to above freezing!
While I have seen this happen in the past and completely bust an ice forecast, I would not want to bet on it this time around. There is only a 1 to 2 degree margin of error between rain and freezing rain, so it is best to er on the side of caution. I certainly would not be upset if the Tech Model turned out to be true!
For those of you who prefer a more intense winter storm (who are you people?), you will want to place your bet on the Canadian Model. It "almost" entombs the entire Metroplex in ice by Thursday morning. It thinks the warm air aloft will not be enough to compensate for the cold air that will be in place at the surface and therefore thinks the rain will just freeze on impact across the entire area.
Obviously our forecast lies somewhere in between these two extremes (which is usually where the truth can be found). But I hope you can see that the difference between a simple cold rain and a "city shutdown" is only about 1 to 2 degrees on your thermometer.
So again, stay tuned for the next update now that we are finally within 24 hours of the event itself.
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