Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Ntxw]

Oklahoma blizzard.

[bubba hotep]

Oklahoma blizzard.

Little changes across the board. Those I already mentioned and now better orientation of the WC ridge.

[Ntxw]

Oklahoma blizzard.

Little changes across the board. Those I already mentioned and now better orientation of the WC ridge.

1068mb high up north. Deep cold air is going to press that trough. There is room for more south/west still.

[cheezyWXguy]

Oklahoma blizzard.

Actually kind of surprised there’s no precip depicted in ntx this run, since the 500mb is a little further southwest than the 6z which did show it. Still doesn’t really matter this early though

[Iceresistance]

Itryatgolf also gets hammered in Arkansas as well!

[Ntxw]

Oklahoma blizzard.

Actually kind of surprised there’s no precip depicted in ntx this run, since the 500mb is a little further southwest than the 6z which did show it. Still doesn’t really matter this early though

Yeah it's going to round the base of the trough no matter where we swing, which is highly determined by the depth of the cold.

One of the coldest GFS runs yet (outside lalaland.)

[orangeblood]

Oklahoma blizzard.

Little changes across the board. Those I already mentioned and now better orientation of the WC ridge.

1068mb high up north. Deep cold air is going to press that trough. There is room for more south/west still.

Yep, this one has plenty of room for southwest trend and also about as drastic of a temp drop as you’ll ever find too

[Ntxw]

This would be record breaking HP by quite a bit if verified.

[bubba hotep]

Really cuts the system this run. Svr thunderstorms for Maine lol. I would be pissed if I still lived out east. One of the best December patterns you could ask for if you wanted a big EC blizzard and they might get skunked.

[TheProfessor]

Southwest trend actually works out well for me as long as the storm stays wound up like the GFS shows so I'm all for it. Let's get blizzard warnings from DFW to Lincoln Nebraska!

[Ntxw]

In severe cold blasts, the Canadian sometimes wins . Consistently the coldest.

[rwfromkansas]

I love how far west the HP and trough is on the GFS. Hopefully ICON will shake it off next run and we get movement toward the GFS solution. I want the cold to stick around until the 1st and snow somewhere in the southern plains even if it doesn’t make it here. Well, north of me so I see it driving, cough.

[Iceresistance]

Might be a broken record, but the 12z GFS continues to weaken the +PNA ridge

[orangeblood]

This would be record breaking HP by quite a bit if verified.

https://i.imgur.com/rGfknm1.png

Record breaking HP, deep snowpack to north and solstice…has a chance to break the 83’ low record, which is 6 F. Only thing missing to flirt with the December 89’ record of -1 F is our own snowpack . Coincidentally this December low record was set on same morning Dec 23

[Ntxw]

This would be record breaking HP by quite a bit if verified.

https://i.imgur.com/rGfknm1.png

Record breaking HP, deep snowpack to north and solstice…has a chance to break the 83’ low record, which is 6 F. Only thing missing to flirt with the December 89’ record of -1 F is our own snowpack . Coincidentally this December low record was set on same morning Dec 23

Yep we won't have the '83 duration but could do the '89 quick sharpness with any kind of snow cover. For as intense as '83 was the lows don't rank top 5.

[Brent]

That GFS run was pretty much historic here. Up there with the big ones

[Iceresistance]

That GFS run was pretty much historic here. Up there with the big ones

A foot of snow in Tulsa, that would rival Christmas Eve/Christmas Day 2009

[vbhoutex]

I am becoming increasingly concerned that temps being forecast here in Houston are busting a little high. If the snow pack develops like it appears it might, there will be very little moderation as the cold plunges South. I don't expect a repeat of last February, but it could be close temperature wise. Precipitation type and amounts, if any, are still anybody's guess at this point.
Just as an aside, this is a late first freeze for Houston by average and normally if we even approach this kind of cold it isn't till February. I am not about to say it will be a record breaking winter here, I just hope it is a one and done for this kind of cold here in Houston.

[TheProfessor]

There are a couple of really good GEFS members which would make a lot of us happy.

[orangeblood]

There are a couple of really good GEFS members which would make a lot of us happy.

Big changes in the Mean trough position too…backing southwest.

This is the 500 mb delta from the 06z run



Cold air also backing southwest, in turn system should be doing same

Temp delta from 06Z