Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[rhoby13]

I'm watching the snow line across the N. Carolina S. Carolina state line today and tonight. I'm interested to see how far south down I-85 the snow line moves. Clearly, this is the first real snow fall for the Appalachians.

[frigidice77]

Jacksonville NWS said we could experience hard freezes Mon-Fri

[NC George]

We have a mix of sleet and snow falling right now in Ayden, NC. (about 1/2 way between US 70 and US 64.)

[vbhoutex]

Jacksonville NWS said we could experience hard freezes Mon-Fri

Does Weather.com get their temps from the NWS? 33 on Thursday and 46 on Friday certainly aren't hard freezes.
I just looked at NWS graphics for temps for the week from NWS and they don't show hard freezes for the entire week as you stated. Perhaps they have changed since you saw the forecast?

[frigidice77]

They werent talking about my location. We are warmer because we live along the coast. Areas inland will experience the freezes.

[vbhoutex]

Jacksonville NWS said we could experience hard freezes Mon-Fri

This says we. When someone posts we most people presume we is at the posters location. Perhaps you need to reword your posts when making a statement such as this? And I do know exactly where St. Marys is. Imo your statement is misleading.

[frigidice77]

Isnt 26, 27,28 degrees a hardfreeze vbhoutex? Then since its misleading ill say we will have a hard freeze mon-wed.

[Ntxw]

NWS Jacksonville. Cold by any standards anytime of the year. Not all week long, but early to midweek for sure.

STRONG CAA WILL GET UNDERWAY TOMORROW AS LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS
THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH. SEVERAL POTENT SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE
AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH DURING THE WEEK...WITH A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH EACH. A COLD AIR OUTBREAK OF THIS
MAGNITUDE IS EXTREMELY UNUSUAL FOR THIS EARLY IN THE SEASON. A
FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD
FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 UNDER SUNNY SKIES MONDAY. IT WILL GET
VERY COLD MONDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID 20S...EVEN UPPER
20S EXPECTED AT THE BEACHES. HARD FREEZE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS LIKELY TO
DROP INTO THE TEENS.

QUICK PEEK INTO THE DATABASE SUGGESTS THAT THE LAST TIME THE
JACKSONVILLE AREA SAW TEMPS BELOW 25 DEGREES DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF DECEMBER WAS BACK IN 1981 WHEN KJAX RECORDED A LOW OF 23
DEGREES ON DEC 11TH. THE COLDEST EARLY DECEMBER TEMP ON RECORD AT
KJAX IS 12 DEGREES...SET ON 12/13/1962. MOST UNUSUAL WITH THE
UPCOMING COLD AIR EVENT IS THE EXPECTED DURATION...AS IT IS
EXTREMELY RARE TO SEE 2 OR MORE CONSECUTIVE HARD FREEZES THIS
EARLY IN THE SEASON.

[vbhoutex]

Isnt 26, 27,28 degrees a hardfreeze vbhoutex? Then since its misleading ill say we will have a hard freeze mon-wed.

From the AMS glossary: hard freeze—A freeze in which seasonal vegetation is destroyed, the ground surface is frozen solid underfoot, and heavy ice is formed on small water surfaces such as puddles and water containers.
From another source: Hard Freeze - A freeze when the air temperature is 26 degrees or colder for at least four consecutive hours. It usually means that seasonal vegetation will be destroyed.

[Extremeweatherguy]

A "hard freeze" is somewhat subjective based on location, and most NWS offices set their own criteria, but generally you see hard freeze warnings issued when temperatures are expected to fall below 25-28F for at least a couple of hours.

WRAL.com gave a more detailed response to this question back in 2007:
http://www.wral.com/weather/blogpost/2027272/

For Jacksonville in particular, their criteria for a hard freeze is "temperatures 27 degrees or lower for 2 or more hours" (according to this link: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jax/?n=public_glossary ). Using this definition, only the first and perhaps second night would qualify based on the current forecast for frigidice's location.

[frigidice77]

The Nws just issued us a freeze watch from sun night-tue morning. I read the above post about hard freezes. Surrounding areas will be in low 20s. I wonder why everyone has a freeze watch?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Yeah, I just looked at some of the forecasts for the inland locations within the watch, and it looks like they will certainly be meeting hard freeze criteria Monday morning through Thursday morning. Some areas are even forecast to reach the teens Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, which is impressive.

[frigidice77]

NWS have decided. We have a freeze warning from midnight to 9am monday. A hard freeze watch from mon night to Tuesday morning.Did anyone see the 192 hour ecm model on the southern plains thread?

[frigidice77]

Lol! Only if this was an el nino pattern with the forecasted temps this week. Sigh.

[Dean4Storms]

The Gulf Coast from LA eastward to The western Panhandle of FL could see some flurries or ice pellets come Wed. morning as a shortwave dives SE around the UL Trough over the eastern US. It is all depending on enough moisture being present, but there remains a small possibility.

[frigidice77]

I was thinking the same possibility because the forecast calls for mostly cloudy.

[Jag95]

They're still mentioning a slight chance of snow flurries in the deep South Wednesday morning.

Mobile NWS

...INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. THE AIRMASS BELOW 700 MB STILL APPEARS TO BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY PRECIPITATION...BUT IT MUST BE POINTED OUT THAT MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN PREVIOUSLY...AND ALSO INDICATE A DEEP SUB-FREEZING AIRMASS AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER INTERIOR ZONES. AS A RESULT...IF ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WERE TO DEVELOP AND MAKE IT TO THE GROUND...IT WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW FLURRIES. GIVEN THAT THIS HAS A LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AT THIS TIME...WILL NOT MAKE ANY MENTION IN THE FORECAST...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS.

[srainhoutx]

HPC:

12Z MODELS:

DETERMINISTIC 12Z/06 GUIDANCE IS STILL ON TRACK IN MOVING A
WEAKENING STORM ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY/GREAT LAKES THU-SAT....AND
WITH DEVELOPING A NEW MAJOR ERN CONUS STORM NEXT WEEKEND. BY SUN
DAY 6...THE GFS IS ON THE FAST SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS
WHILE THE UKMET IS ON THE SLOW SIDE. ECMWF WAS FARTHER N WITH THE
PRIMARY LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION NEXT WEEKEND AND
NOT QUITE AS FAR E AS THE GFS WITH THE SECONDARY CENTER DEVELOPING
DAY 6 VICINITY OF VA/NC. I WILL NUDGE THE DAY 6 FINAL LOW POSITION
JUST A TAD TO THE E OVER KY. THIS SYS WILL BE A MAJOR WEATHER
PRODUCER AS SYNOPTIC HEAVY SNOWFALL NEXT WEEKEND IN THE GREAT
LAKES LAKES REGION GIVES WAY TO MORE EFFECT SN BY DAY 7. FARTHER
S...SN MAY CHANGE TO RAIN FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO SE NEW
ENG BEFORE QUICKLY CHANGING BACK TO SN OVER THE
APPALACHIANS/NY/INTERIOR NEW ENG AS THE SYS MOVES FROM THE OH VLY
INTO NY STATE. WHILE SOME HEAVY SN IS EXPECTED TO THE LEFT OF THE
STORM TRACK...PERHAPS EVEN MORE IMPORTANT WILL BE THE DANGEROUS
WIND CHILLS THAT WILL HOWL IN ON NORTHWESTERLY WINDS E OF THE MS
RIVER BEHIND THE STORM. FURTHERMORE THERE IS A RISK OF SOME NEAR
RECORD LOW TEMPS DAMAGING CITRUS CROPS IN FL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro shows MAJOR cold for the Southeast....Records would fall

[northjaxpro]

Ivanhater, if those runs of the Euro verify next week, that arctic airmass could potentially be a very historic one for the Deep South for sure. These latest Euro runs are showing significantly colder than the current outbreak we are experiencing.