Texas Winter 2015-2016

[Ralph's Weather]

Already have reached mybseasonal low of 26. With the high overhead the only thing stopping us from bottoming out to the 21 dp is the clouds that should move in as the little shortwave nears.

[SeGaBob]

0Z GFS has barely any snow from Texas eastward compared to earlier... (through 240 hours)

[Brent]

I guess beyond 4 days is now fantasy land lol

[Brent]

The 0z Euro now has 1-2" of snow over DFW on Saturday afternoon LOL(slightly higher amounts to the NW)... these models have lost their mind!

and again has snow breaking out in Central Texas next Monday. Storm is way south, DFW no snow, Austin/San Antonio gets 3-6"(higher amounts to the SW of San Antonio), and 1-2 inches falls on the beaches west of Galveston! Even Houston gets a dusting to an inch.

Man this run is COLD... temperatures will have trouble getting out of the 30s weekend-next Tuesday in DFW this run and not much warmer to the south

[Portastorm]

The 0z Euro now has 1-2" of snow over DFW on Saturday afternoon LOL(slightly higher amounts to the NW)... these models have lost their mind!

and again has snow breaking out in Central Texas next Monday. Storm is way south, DFW no snow, Austin/San Antonio gets 3-6"(higher amounts to the SW of San Antonio), and 1-2 inches falls on the beaches west of Galveston! Even Houston gets a dusting to an inch.

Man this run is COLD... temperatures will have trouble getting out of the 30s weekend-next Tuesday in DFW this run and not much warmer to the south

That 0z run is an absolute masterpiece, isn't it?!

Would lay down a solid 3" across Austin and Travis County. Too bad we're not 24 hours out.

[dhweather]

A solid 3" in Austin would do the trick - give Porta what he's long been waiting for !!

The good thing about the current cold snap is this will at least cool the surface down some, so if we do get lucky and get wintry precip, there's a better chance of accumulation.

[Ntxw]

You can kind of gage which way the OP heads or some support with ENS. For the northern half of the state the ENS are more impressive for the southern haf of the state the euro OP is more impressive. We'll have a better idea by Weds.

[stormlover2013]

man these models have been so up and down...........I don't think we will know till Friday, I have a hunch they will keep flipping

[Yukon Cornelius]

Very light flurries this morning.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Any maps showing the Euro snow maps we can look at? The setup on the 500mb chart looks good for winter precip, its just hard to see how the data translates.

[1900hurricane]

A solution like some of the models are showing 7-8 days out is actually one of the few winter solutions I can get behind. A southern system in a split flow regime moving atop a cold airmass have delivered some big days in the past, including the big February 2010 event. This type of event often has plenty of moisture to work with, but sometimes lacks the colder air. In addition, there's no guarantee that such a disturbance will actually be realized at this range, especially considering the jumbled nature of the NPac.

[orangeblood]

A solution like some of the models are showing 7-8 days out is actually one of the few winter solutions I can get behind. A southern system in a split flow regime moving atop a cold airmass have delivered some big days in the past, including the big February 2010 event. This type of event often has plenty of moisture to work with, but sometimes lacks the colder air. In addition, there's no guarantee that such a disturbance will actually be realized at this range, especially considering the jumbled nature of the NPac.

Great point 1900hurricane....the split flow/energy out in the Pacific is creating havoc on ALL models, still very much a guessing game at this point!!!

[orangeblood]

Yikes!!! MJO forecast into the circle of death plus the AO going neutral, not good news for long sustaining cold across the southern US. Sure hope we can get a winter storm out of the next 7-10 days, it appears we might have a pull back shortly thereafter.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Yeah long range it looks like the AO will go positive and reload again. We can still see some action in February though.

[stormlover2013]

we shall see, my hopes are starting to dwindle.... the models gives us hope then boom they go back and show nothing....I say euro flips back with gfs today just a hunch

[Ntxw]

Yeah long range it looks like the AO will go positive and reload again. We can still see some action in February though.

The Stratospheric PV has been strong and has not been broken down to keep the -AO for all of January. However this current -AO has been bottom up meaning troposphere split. These types are hard to predict and happens on much shorter time scales. Troposphere AO is not stable though, El Nino likes to attack it from below as it keeps pumping warm air northwards. We'll likely see a -AO Feb. If the stratosphere PV broke down (time is running out for that to happen in time before spring) then we would sustain the -AO longer

The EPO has been mostly negative (not tank) but enough to keep the cold shots abound. Which is why most stations are running below average in Texas.

Code: Select all

2016 01 01 -128.25
2016 01 02 -141.21
2016 01 03 -115.18
2016 01 04  -97.10
2016 01 05 -102.55
2016 01 06 -133.65
2016 01 07 -168.66
2016 01 08 -164.95
2016 01 09 -149.26

VS December

Code: Select all

2015 12 01   32.91
2015 12 02   45.16
2015 12 03   86.42
2015 12 04  127.56
2015 12 05  102.18
2015 12 06  130.56
2015 12 07  210.71
2015 12 08  231.63
2015 12 09  241.78
2015 12 10  193.28
2015 12 11  118.79
2015 12 12  105.06
2015 12 13   76.54
2015 12 14   12.93
2015 12 15  -21.12
2015 12 16   12.49
2015 12 17   95.52
2015 12 18   80.78
2015 12 19  131.12
2015 12 20  199.22
2015 12 21  255.10
2015 12 22  305.43
2015 12 23  241.22
2015 12 24   81.05
2015 12 25   34.03
2015 12 26   71.49
2015 12 27   55.28
2015 12 28   33.46
2015 12 29  -47.64
2015 12 30 -111.32
2015 12 31 -110.25

Feb 2010 was not that cold in terms of arctic blast. It was run of the mill cold shots with a noisy southern stream. Timing and jackpot.

[Rgv20]

I like what the 0zECMWF Control is showing....Snow for all of South Texas!

[Brent]

The 12z Euro still has a little snow on Saturday, not as much as the 0z, but it does have a band of a trace to around an inch in mostly the northeastern and eastern DFW metro and along/north of 20 towards Louisiana

[stormlover2013]

yeah figured it would start flipping back!!! models having a hard time.....oh well back to the drawing the board lol its playing mind games with us again

[gpsnowman]

The 12z Euro still has a little snow on Saturday, not as much as the 0z, but it does have a band of a trace to around an inch in mostly the northeastern and eastern DFW metro and along/north of 20 towards Louisiana

How are the temps looking? The noon forecasts had us low to mid forties Saturday and Sunday.