Texas Winter 2016-2017

[Tireman4]

Just had ham and rice dressing. Got an Applie iPad Pro (12.9") for Christmas, replacing my ancient iPad 2. All set up and ready to go to Verizon to put in on my account next week. Will get a new iPhone 7 at the same time to replace my 6.

As for the 12Z GFS, it keeps seeing a strong cold front off and on in the long range. Don't believe anything beyond about 5 days. Once it's within 5 days and the EC consistently agrees, then believe it. For now, it's almost 80 degrees and the humidity is only 71%. Time for a nice, long bike ride. Back in 4 hours...

I just finished my first of two hour bike rides. Yeah...no....ughh. have fun on yours.

[Ntxw]

I haven't read the forecast today, but I've been outside and get a really unsettled feeling about it. Huge humidities and strong, southeast winds. Worried that the storm threat for tonight is bigger than has been forecast.

Storm mode will be linear as upper forcing will be too far north, unlike a year ago when it was super cell mode and vortmax was just to our west. It will cool things off a bit once showers pass.

ECMWF has a 1056hp+ in Canada

[ronyan]

Yep, remember last time we didn't have a huge high at least in the CONUS.

Merry Christmas to all, I only wish it could be colder.

[Brent]

Nothing says Merry Christmas like shorts and a t shirt

[Golf7070]

Ntxw，do u think the gfs is rushing the cold air? Im guessing it was since euro dont show it

[ronyan]

The Euro shows the front on Jan 4 as well.

[KatDaddy]

A very Merry Muggy Christmas to everyone. WXman57 approves this weather and Tireman does not. Onward to 2017.

[Brent]

.DISCUSSION...
...DFW and Waco both tie their record high temperature for
Christmas day (78 degrees) and both could break it with a little
more heating left today...

I'm ready for some record lows... we seem to get record highs no problem.

Edit: DFW has officially hit 80... wasn't the forecast today like 74?

[gpsnowman]

I cracked. Couldn't take it anymore. The a/c is on to flush this nasty humidity out of my house. Unbelievable.

[Brent]

Heck we might even offset most of the cold this month and finish above normal looking at the forecast... We're only about -1 on the month so far...

[CaptinCrunch]

.DISCUSSION...
...DFW and Waco both tie their record high temperature for
Christmas day (78 degrees) and both could break it with a little
more heating left today...

I'm ready for some record lows... we seem to get record highs no problem.

Edit: DFW has officially hit 80... wasn't the forecast today like 74?

It's 81 now, and with today's high, this will erase the -1.4 below average month mean. December will move back to a above average monthly mean temperature as nothing close to a normal daily temperature is forecasted through the weekend. Closest we get is Thursday with a high of 57, buts that's still 5 degrees above normal. As for precipitation we are over an inch below the monthly December average.

[Brent]

makes me wonder if the January cold is legit... afterall I remember a couple weeks ago comparisons to 1983 for this week... nope more like last year.

[ronyan]

I didn't see much about 1983 for this week but did see quite a bit about it earlier in the month when we did have a strong arctic front come down. I don't think this front is going anywhere by looking at the 500mb charts and the forecasts for the EPO at the beginning of the year. Just my unprofessional opinion.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

The EPO forecasts for the beginning of the year are 2 to 3 SDs below normal. That's a healthy -EPO

[Ntxw]

makes me wonder if the January cold is legit... afterall I remember a couple weeks ago comparisons to 1983 for this week... nope more like last year.

Last year's low was 27F...we had a high this year comparable to that. Christmas weekend is comparable to last year though.

We have to emphasize the use of analogs does not mean you are going to see the same thing happen. It is the same mechanics to deliver cold, and it did just like it did in 1983. It did not last as long as 1983 nor was it as intense but no outbreak really is except 1899 which is a one in a century type event.

[Brent]

Well the GFS is consistent again with the cold around day 10 and some wintry threats... I guess we'll see.

I just want to see if it's still there in a few days and really want the Euro to show it soon.

[Portastorm]

makes me wonder if the January cold is legit... afterall I remember a couple weeks ago comparisons to 1983 for this week... nope more like last year.

Last year's low was 27F...we had a high this year comparable to that. Christmas weekend is comparable to last year though.

We have to emphasize the use of analogs does not mean you are going to see the same thing happen. It is the same mechanics to deliver cold, and it did just like it did in 1983. It did not last as long as 1983 nor was it as intense but no outbreak really is except 1899 which is a one in a century type event.

Those are good points. I also think it's important to remember that in both 83 and 89, while those Arctic outbreaks were historic in nature, much of the winter season itself was marked by mild to warm temps. Classic La Nina, right? Mostly above average temps/below average precip and several major Arctic outbreaks which interrupt the periods of warmth. I think in terms of how things are unfolding seasonally, it's right along the lines of a Nina albeit a weak one.

[Snowman67]

Lot of snow being dumped on North Dakota and parts of Montana. Will make for a good snow pack. Now all we need is some cold air to come down and move over it!

[Brent]

Is it even going to rain? Lol, this Christmas storm...

I'm ready just to fast forward a week and see if the cold is still there...

[aggiecutter]