Texas Winter 2018-2019

[spencer817]

HAPPY NEW YEAR! May it be filled with winter and severe events!

[Brent]

Happy New Year guys! 2nd wettest year on record for DFW is over!

Wednesday on the Euro still looks like just a cold rain for the metro

Now to wait for Thursday frames

not gonna be as snowy that's for sure, looks more NW

yeah practically nothing frozen for DFW on the Euro

[starsfan65]

Happy New Year guys! 2nd wettest year on record for DFW is over!

Wednesday on the Euro still looks like just a cold rain for the metro

Now to wait for Thursday frames

not gonna be as snowy that's for sure, looks more NW

yeah practically nothing frozen for DFW on the Euro

I hope this run is an outlier.

[CaptinCrunch]

Happy New Year everyone and let's get this winter party started

[South Texas Storms]

Happy New Year everyone!

Thankful for a wet 2018, and hoping for another wet and active year in 2019!

[Brent]

0z Euro ends with multiple days of 70s btw looks like a fast warmup after this storm

[Cerlin]

0z Euro ends with multiple days of 70s btw looks like a fast warmup after this storm

Awful news...

[Texas Snow]

0z Euro ends with multiple days of 70s btw looks like a fast warmup after this storm

Awful news...

I love these last few posts tonight. Every time I go away for a few hours or sleep, the opposite of what was happening last has flipped 180 and the opposite is now in play. This has me looking forward to reading about a potential massive storm when I wake up.

[Brent]

NAM doesn't look good either... 34-35 and rain for DFW Wednesday, maybe a very small area of freezing rain NW metro and its a close call Thursday but mostly NW of the metro then too

[Jarodm12]

NAM doesn't look good either... 34-35 and rain for DFW Wednesday, maybe a very small area of freezing rain NW metro and its a close call Thursday but mostly NW of the metro then too

Idk man looks like a major ice storm to me. Although I'm in Durant , but this looks like north Texas tol

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php ... onus&dpdt=

[TheProfessor]

6z NAM is nearly identical position wise from the 0z but is more juiced up. Completely crushes Denton and Collin County.

[TheProfessor]

The 0z WRF models do seem to be on the cooler side on the surface. I do wonder if the temperatures are hovering around 31 if the streets mostly liquid and not icy, but powerlines and trees are coated in ice.

[TheProfessor]

Winter Storm Watches are now Winter Weather Advisories. It was also included to expand Denton County.

[TheProfessor]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
421 AM CST Tue Jan 1 2019


TXZ091>093-103-011830-
/O.NEW.KFWD.WW.Y.0001.190102T0900Z-190104T1200Z/
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Denton-
Including the cities of Bowie, Nocona, Gainesville, Sherman,
Denison, Carrollton, Denton, Lewisville, and Flower Mound
421 AM CST Tue Jan 1 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM
CST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Freezing rain expected late tonight through Wednesday
with a transition to snow possible on Thursday. Total snow
accumulations of up to one inch and ice accumulations of up to
one tenth of an inch are possible.

* WHERE...Montague, Cooke, Grayson and Denton Counties.

* WHEN...From 3 AM Wednesday to 6 AM CST Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The
hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening
commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet or
freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

The latest road conditions for Texas can be found at
drivetexas.org.

[TheProfessor]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
421 AM CST Tue Jan 1 2019


TXZ100>102-115>117-011830-
/O.UPG.KFWD.WS.A.0003.190102T0900Z-190103T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KFWD.WW.Y.0001.190102T0900Z-190104T1200Z/
Young-Jack-Wise-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-
Including the cities of Graham, Olney, Jacksboro, Decatur,
Bridgeport, Breckenridge, Mineral Wells, Weatherford, and Briar
421 AM CST Tue Jan 1 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM
CST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Freezing rain expected late tonight through Wednesday
with a transition to snow possible on Thursday. Total snow
accumulations of up to one inch and ice accumulations of one
tenth to two tenths of an inch are possible.

* WHERE...Western portions of North Texas.

* WHEN...From 3 AM Wednesday to 6 AM CST Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slick road conditions at times.
The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening
commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet or
freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

The latest road conditions for Texas can be found at
drivetexas.org.

[TheProfessor]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
421 AM CST Tue Jan 1 2019


TXZ129>132-141-011830-
/O.UPG.KFWD.WS.A.0003.190102T0900Z-190103T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KFWD.WW.Y.0001.190102T0900Z-190103T1800Z/
Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-Comanche-
Including the cities of Cisco, Eastland, Ranger, Gorman,
Stephenville, Dublin, Granbury, Oak Trail Shores, Glen Rose,
Comanche, and De Leon
421 AM CST Tue Jan 1 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON
CST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Freezing rain expected. Total ice accumulations of one
tenth to two tenths of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Eastland, Erath, Hood, Somervell and Comanche Counties.

* WHEN...From 3 AM Wednesday to noon CST Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slick road conditions at times.
The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening
commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of freezing rain
will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery roads. Slow down
and use caution while driving.

The latest road conditions for Texas can be found at
drivetexas.org.

&&

$$

[TheProfessor]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
421 AM CST Tue Jan 1 2019


TXZ142-143-011830-
/O.NEW.KFWD.WW.Y.0001.190102T0900Z-190103T1800Z/
Mills-Hamilton-
Including the cities of Goldthwaite, Hamilton, and Hico
421 AM CST Tue Jan 1 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON
CST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Freezing rain expected. Total ice accumulations of one
tenth to two tenths of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Mills and Hamilton Counties.

* WHEN...From 3 AM Wednesday to noon CST Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The hazardous conditions could impact the
morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of freezing rain
will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery roads. Slow down
and use caution while driving.

The latest road conditions for Texas can be found at
drivetexas.org.

&&

$$

[TheProfessor]

I honestly wouldn't be surprised if some of these western counties get upgraded to a ice storm warning during this event. If the Canadian global model and it's short range model are both correct, then the Metro would probably actually need warnings. Though areas where 1" of snow is forecasted would likely become a winter storm warning instead of an ice storm warning.

[TheProfessor]

A blurb for the AFD


While there had previously been a large amount of uncertainty
with the snow transition potential, latest runs of the ECMWF,
GFS, and NAM are all in reasonably sound agreement with the track
of the upper low, which is now a couple hundred miles farther
south than previous forecasts. Most guidance tracks the core of
the low along the I-20/30 corridor on Thursday and Thursday
night, which would mean a greater potential for an area of snow
to develop just to it`s northwest. Have expanded the mention of
snow from previous forecasts down to I-20 for much of Thursday and
Thursday night as the column should fall entirely blow freezing
in these areas. Strong isentropic ascent within an area of mid-
level frontogenesis should contribute to a band of deformation
zone precipitation across northwest Texas and Oklahoma. The
question mark will once again be the surface temperatures and the
potential for any resultant accumulations. With temperatures
likely remaining near or above freezing in much of North Texas,
accumulating snowfall would likely be confined to areas northwest
of the DFW Metroplex. Have included snow accumulations of around
1" for our far northwest zones for the time being with less than
an inch mentioned farther southward towards I-20. If surface
temperatures do remain near or above freezing, impacts from any
snowfall would be minimal. As the low exits the area Thursday
night and Friday morning, so too will our bout with wintry weather
potential.

I think someone in the northwest counties(unless a south trend continues) could be in for a surprise. Perhaps up in the Falls or a bit southeast of there.

[TheProfessor]

Sorry for all the spam yall lol. Got a bit carried away. I do think if the trend continues(and the models don't trend warmer again) Collin County will be the next to get an advisory, followed by Tarrant(though Tarrant could come first).