Texas Winter 2019-2020

[TheProfessor]

NAM trending towards GFS...it really could pull it off this time ladies and gentlemen!

Even though the NAM shows snow for DFW it's not actually trending towards the GFS. It's still holding that energy back and nearly forming a cutoff low(this would be a new wrinkle) In Northwestern Mexico. This exactly what you'd want in North Texas and would be miles better than anything the more progressive GFS would produce.

More progressive than previous runs, still has a little more energy hanging back but it looks to be trending towards the more progressive GFS solution...precip shield and temp profile also look similar.

I could agree that the northern stream is more progressive, but the southern stream is anything but progressive, which is why the NAM might be why the NAM is forming a cutoff low, which again, would be great for Texas.

[bubba hotep]

It's the 84 hr NAM but that is about to break off a huge winter storm across Texas.

[TheProfessor]

This is the difference between the GFS and NAM.





Notice how the energy at the base of the trough is more spread out and there's not really anything pivoting around the trough, this keeps the trough positively tilted and progressive until later on down the road where there's finally energy pivoting around the trough and allow it to kick further east. Way too late for Texas and too late for my friends in Ohio.

The NAM however, has all that energy that hasn't rounded the base of the trough yet, when that happens the trough will began to pivot and kick out. Depending on when it does this determines on how big of a winter storm it would be for DFW, but this is definitely something you'd want to see if you live in North Texas. You don't want the GFS solution and unless you want to risk it all for getting hit by that narrow band lol.

[TheProfessor]

I still think you're more likely to see something in between like the Canadian. The NAM has actually trended closer to the UkMet when it comes to trough progression(Closed low in Northern Mexico vs closed low in Southern Arizona). The main difference between the NAM and UkMet is that it's a bit faster, which I don't think will be a problem for snow(in fact the later kick will only help DFW) but it does limit the extended severe potential for this system, which is a good thing. Though I'd have to imagine it might cause some severe weather further east as it kicks.

[TheProfessor]

The GFS is starting to trend toward the other models, this is getting exciting!

[Texas Snow]

The GFS is starting to trend toward the other models, this is getting exciting!

Yep the upper levels do seem to be back slightly like the 2 images you posted recently

[TheProfessor]

The GFS does some funky stuff with that energy rounding the base of the trough after hour 72, but it's definitely a step in the right direction.

[TheProfessor]

Interestingly enough the GFS takes a step in the right direction and you now have 3 distinct snow bands over southwest, north, and central Texas.

[Texas Snow]

The ridiculously fun outputs are still there

[bubba hotep]

The GFS is starting to trend toward the other models, this is getting exciting!

I would expect the Euro to trend a bit towards the GFS, as the models shed their bias and move closer to the short range. This all actually looks pretty good for DFW but the best combo of ingredients probably still ends up to our west. The trends are looking like they might get a decent winter wx event into DFW.

[TheProfessor]

The GFS is starting to trend toward the other models, this is getting exciting!

I would expect the Euro to trend a bit towards the GFS, as the models shed their bias and move closer to the short range. This all actually looks pretty good for DFW but the best combo of ingredients probably still ends up to our west. The trends are looking like they might get a decent winter wx event into DFW.

Yeah that's what I was saying earlier, something more in the middle like the Canadian.

[SnowintheFalls]

The GFS is starting to trend toward the other models, this is getting exciting!

I would expect the Euro to trend a bit towards the GFS, as the models shed their bias and move closer to the short range. This all actually looks pretty good for DFW but the best combo of ingredients probably still ends up to our west. The trends are looking like they might get a decent winter wx event into DFW.

Potentially west toward Wichita Falls?

[bubba hotep]

DFW zoom using Kuchera

[Brent]

DFW zoom using Kuchera

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/dallas/total_snow_kuchera/1580601600/1581055200-jYctRkkeJyM.png

7 inches at the airport

[Texas Snow]

I’ll give away any potential upside to lock that in now

I am sure folks just East wouldn’t mind a slight shift over, which I would allow for

[TheProfessor]

DFW zoom using Kuchera

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/dallas/total_snow_kuchera/1580601600/1581055200-jYctRkkeJyM.png

It's nice to see my old house under the jackpot lol.

[TheProfessor]

The GFS is starting to trend toward the other models, this is getting exciting!

I would expect the Euro to trend a bit towards the GFS, as the models shed their bias and move closer to the short range. This all actually looks pretty good for DFW but the best combo of ingredients probably still ends up to our west. The trends are looking like they might get a decent winter wx event into DFW.

Potentially west toward Wichita Falls?

It could be further west, but that's not guaranteed, it just depends on where the storm kicks(or if it does before crossing Texas). The difference is the orientation of the snow band(s) would be different. We'll see though. WF is going to want the storm to kick out earlier. The Euro is pretty close to what you want.

[rwfromkansas]

Lock that in...almost 8 inches here. That would make up for the last five years.

[Haris]

Can someone update what they think may happen in Austin ?

[TheProfessor]

Can someone update what they think may happen in Austin ?

Things could get interesting in the Hill Country if the storm just continues to dig further south than forecast, could it lead to snow in Austin? I don't know, I wouldn't say it's impossible, but I'd say right now it's not too likely. The GFS is a close call with wintry precip though.