Texas Winter 2025-2026

[NDG]

New LRC with a big heat dome in the south central US, I wouldn't bank on much winter weather for TX this season. Might be one of those Fall/winters that FL might be cooler than TX at times.

If it is legitimate, the LRC pattern is only just setting up and goes through cycles, so you can’t say this at all. What you could say is there will be periods of warmer winter weather. That’s likely with La Niña anyway.

My prediction was correct, temps in northern FL and parts of central FL have gotten lower than than in Houston, for example, so far this meteorological winter because of troughs digging south closer to FL at times.
Temps down to the upper 20s in the northern suburbs of both Tampa and Orlando this morning, Jax down to the low 20s in their NW suburbs.

[Gotwood]

We joke about winter being canceled but man it really has been this year. Hopefully something changes soon.

[Quixotic]

Snow in point grid for my area tomorrow.

[rwfromkansas]

New LRC with a big heat dome in the south central US, I wouldn't bank on much winter weather for TX this season. Might be one of those Fall/winters that FL might be cooler than TX at times.

If it is legitimate, the LRC pattern is only just setting up and goes through cycles, so you can’t say this at all. What you could say is there will be periods of warmer winter weather. That’s likely with La Niña anyway.

My prediction was correct, temps in northern FL and parts of central FL have gotten lower than than in Houston, for example, so far this meteorological winter because of troughs digging south closer to FL at times.
Temps down to the upper 20s in the northern suburbs of both Tampa and Orlando this morning, Jax down to the low 20s in their NW suburbs.

https://i.imgur.com/2Xlquco.gif

Good point. It has been really set in stone this winter. Just nuts.

[Stratton23]

And look at that, the CMC shows my thinking, Cold air overwhelms the pattern and texas gets cold, and my god the GFS is becoming an embarrassment lol, CMC does have a cold bias, however it does do well with seeing the cold air sinking south

[Cpv17]

And look at that, the CMC shows my thinking, Cold air overwhelms the pattern and texas gets cold, and my god the GFS is becoming an embarrassment lol, CMC does have a cold bias, however it does do well with seeing the cold air sinking south

The CMC is the best model at seeing the cold air bleed south, for sure.

[orangeblood]

GFS is getting closer to a major winter storm next weekend for the southern plains, just need the ULL off Cali to kick out sooner, allowing heights to drop ahead of the Arctic Front in the plains to get deeper/denser cold into Texas. It's almost there!

[rwfromkansas]

GFS is getting closer to a major winter storm next weekend for the southern plains, just need the ULL off Cali to kick out sooner, allowing heights to drop ahead of the Arctic Front in the plains to get deeper/denser cold into Texas. It's almost there!

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/namer/z500_anom/1768564800/1769212800-CZyzjc1ZfCw.png

Well that is pretty.

[rwfromkansas]

My concern is it looks good, but then you play on and the cold just doesn't go south. Just another false positive looking trend. It basically shunts east and is quickly replaced by heat.

[Stratton23]

Give it a couple more days, models are struggling with the upper low out west over baja california , as that progresses east, that helps to drag down the arctic air into texas

[Ntxw]

My concern is it looks good, but then you play on and the cold just doesn't go south. Just another false positive looking trend. It basically shunts east and is quickly replaced by heat.

Yeah the great summer 2026…I mean winter…heat ridge is ever omnipresent. How much of an influence it will have during the upcoming colder shift is a question. It will be back to start to Feb.

I will say, never seen a winter ridge like this before. Warm winters is usually mild Pacific maritime air, not heat induced ridge to this degree.

[Stratton23]

Ntxw yeah lets hope the ridge doesnt hurt us again here, though it appears to me right now, the main player is an upper low out in baja california, models have differed on how that evolves, runs that show the upper low ejecting east help to drag down the colder air into texas and possibly a winter storm, other runs keep the low out west and most of the cold misses us to our east, I really hope its not the later, i will be down right depressed if we cant cash in on this pattern

[Stratton23]

FWIW the AIFS ensemble drives the cold air right down into texas before slowly bleeding east, I normally dont bother with AI guidance, but its been pretty consistent in that department

[Ntxw]

Ntxw yeah lets hope the ridge doesnt hurt us again here, though it appears to me right now, the main player is an upper low out in baja california, models have differed on how that evolves, runs that show the upper low ejecting east help to drag down the colder air into texas and possibly a winter storm, other runs keep the low out west and most of the cold misses us to our east, I really hope its not the later, i will be down right depressed if we cant cash in on this pattern

The heat ridge is trying to build back in around the 25th near the same time. If it wins out then the low will backtrack or stay in place and fade out. It's the battle of the two but maybe the cold will win, our seasonal trend and back of our mind just fears the ridge winning. I just want it to rain...the other casualty of this warm ridge is the atmosphere is extremely dry. Systems are having trouble ringing out any kind of moisture. Feedback loop. We are going through both a surface and atmospheric drought.