Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[frigidice77]

Are those Single digits lows in in north florida, south georgia, and whats that dark blue color?

[Extremeweatherguy]

If the ECMWF scenario plays out, then this would be an extreme cold snap for the southeast. The ECMWF is showing the 25F surface line pushing south of Orlando during the morning of the 15th with a high temperature at or below 40F in Orlando the following afternoon. Highs in parts of northern Florida stay below 35F! These kind of temperatures would easily class this as a top tier winter event for the sunshine state, rivaling some of the largest in recent memory.

This is still over a week out though, so I wouldn't get too worked up about it just yet. Let's wait and see how the models trend in the coming days first..

**ECMWF surface data accessed via my accuweather pro account.

[Brent]

My forecast

Saturday Night...Cloudy. Chance of thunderstorms in the evening...then slight chance of rain showers or snow after midnight. Lows in the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

Sunday...Breezy. Much colder. Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain showers or snow. Near steady temperature in the mid 30s.

Sunday Night...Colder...clear. Lows in the lower 20s.

Monday...Sunny. Highs in the upper 20s.

THE BIG CHANGE WILL COME ON THE HEELS OF THAT NEXT SYSTEM AS MUCH COLDER...PIPE
BUSTING TEMPERATURES DIVE SOUTH BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WE COULD
SEE HIGHS STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING WITH LOWS POSSIBLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS COME TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY MORNING OF NEXT WEEK.
STILL...LONG WAYS OFF.

[somethingfunny]

Stop showing off y'all

[Ivanhater]

I also wouldn't doubt a few snow flurries this week. Each progressive run of the GFS and NAM are showing a bit more moisture each run.

[Ntxw]

Well, just a week ago the Euro was harping a blizzard and extreme cold underneath a cold dome storm for today and tomorrow in the deep south...look what that came out to be. But this time there is support from the other globals. With a tanking NAO, it's not surprising the cold is surging into the eastern half of the country in the coming weeks.

[Ivanhater]

NWS Mobile/Pensacola

Tuesday Night: A chance of flurries after midnight. Increasing clouds, with a low around 28. North wind around 5 mph.

Wednesday: A chance of flurries before 9am. Partly sunny, with a high near 50. Wind chill values between 20 and 30 early. North wind around 5 mph.


Y TUE NIGHT...OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A SHORTWAVE DIVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ARRIVING ON OUR DOORSTEP
BY 12Z WED. THE ECMWF/GFS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON DEPICTING
SOME ROBUST SYNOPTIC LIFT AND DEEP MOISTURE FROM 700 MB AND ABOVE.
THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL BE THE DRY
AIRMASS PRESENT IN THE LOWEST 5000 FT. A LOOK AT AREA FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...PARTIAL THICKNESSES...AND SFC WET BULB TEMPS INDICATE THE
THE PREDOMINATE P-TYPE WOULD BE SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. GIVEN THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL FORCING PROGGED BY GUIDANCE...WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SNOW FLURRIES FOR ALL AREAS NORTH OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST
EARLY WED MORNING. IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS SHOW MORE SATURATION IN THE
LOW LEVELS...WE MAY HAVE TO ADD A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE
FORECAST. IN EITHER CASE...THIS LOOKS TO BE A VERY MINOR EVENT WITH
NO ACCUMULATIONS.

[frigidice77]

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville Florida
252 PM EST Monday Dec 6 2010


..unseasonably cold next few days...
..Hard freeze tonight and likely for Tuesday night/Wednesday morning...


Short term...moderate to strong surface high pressure will continue to
build into the area from the west and middle layer trough will maintain
the unseasonably cold airmass over the region. Temperatures tonight
expected to drop to the lower 20s over the majority of the area with
upper 20s near the coast. Some teens possible in sheltered wind
locations. Records will be challenged tonight and Wednesday morning. For
information...have included record climate information below. Hard freeze warning
remains in effect tonight. Will hoist a Wind Chill Advisory for eastern
zones for tonight/early Tuesday morning. Coldest air from the recent
airmass shifts eastward Tuesday but thickness values and MOS only supportive
of upper 40s and lower 50s again. Will be blustery with west-northwest winds of
~15 miles per hour and gusty. Tuesday night...clear skies...lighter wind flow and
dewpoints in the teens will help plummet temperatures again into the 20s
and a hard freeze watch was hoisted earlier for most counties.
Wednesday...middle level flow GOES zonal as a potent shortwave disturbance
drops in over lower MS valley 12z Wednesday. This feature will spread middle
and upper level clouds over the area Wednesday into Wednesday night but will be
a fast moving system. Both GFS and NAM split deeper moisture north and S
of the area and both do not show any measurable precipitation as low levels
remain dry. Will maintain a silent 10% probability of precipitation for now but some drizzle
is possible during the day. Highs may not get out of the 40s over a
good portion of the County Warning Area due to cloudiness/evaporative cooling. Wednesday
night...shortwave will move well east of the area with mostly clear
skies and colder temperatures expected with another hard freeze likely for
inland areas. Thursday...thickness values begin to rise as the shortwave
disturbance moves east and 850 mb temperatures rise well above freezing. Surface
high pressure will establish over the southeast U.S. With ridging to the
eastern Gulf Coast. Maximum temperatures expected from middle 50s to near 60.


&&


Climate information...
record lows for climate sites:


Tuesday lows jax 21 (1937)...gnv 20 (1937)...ssi 26 (1984)..amg 22 (1962)
Wednesday lows jax 28 (1984)...gnv 24 (1959)...ssi 31 (1954)..amg 21 (1959)


&&


Long term...(fri-mon)
broad trough across the southeast Continental U.S. Starts out the extended forecast with
a shortwave wave disturbance moving across the central Gulf Coast.
Another much more potent shortwave drops southeast out of the northern plains
and digs across the Tennessee Valley Sat and sun. This feature will drag a
another strong cold front across the southern U.S. And then across our
region Sat night into sun. Timing of this feature is similar from
the GFS and mean GFS ensemble run. Both GFS and European model (ecmwf) agree on a
very cold airmass again behind this front with 850 mb temperatures dropping
well below 0c Sun night into Monday. A peek at a 12z GFS sounding
indicated an 850 mb temperature of -10c late Mon! European model (ecmwf) is not too
different. Have trended downward for temperatures Sun night into Monday
otherwise temperatures are expected to be mild ahead of the front with
highs in the 60s and possibly lower 70s S zones...and middle 30s and
middle 40s except perhaps staying in the 50s Sat night. Probability of precipitation were
tweaked up Sat-sun with stayed at or below 30% for now.

[Dean4Storms]

NWS Mobile/Pensacola

Tuesday Night: A chance of flurries after midnight. Increasing clouds, with a low around 28. North wind around 5 mph.

Wednesday: A chance of flurries before 9am. Partly sunny, with a high near 50. Wind chill values between 20 and 30 early. North wind around 5 mph.


Y TUE NIGHT...OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A SHORTWAVE DIVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ARRIVING ON OUR DOORSTEP
BY 12Z WED. THE ECMWF/GFS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON DEPICTING
SOME ROBUST SYNOPTIC LIFT AND DEEP MOISTURE FROM 700 MB AND ABOVE.
THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL BE THE DRY
AIRMASS PRESENT IN THE LOWEST 5000 FT. A LOOK AT AREA FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...PARTIAL THICKNESSES...AND SFC WET BULB TEMPS INDICATE THE
THE PREDOMINATE P-TYPE WOULD BE SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. GIVEN THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL FORCING PROGGED BY GUIDANCE...WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SNOW FLURRIES FOR ALL AREAS NORTH OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST
EARLY WED MORNING. IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS SHOW MORE SATURATION IN THE
LOW LEVELS...WE MAY HAVE TO ADD A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE
FORECAST. IN EITHER CASE...THIS LOOKS TO BE A VERY MINOR EVENT WITH
NO ACCUMULATIONS.

These little systems can sometimes be a surprise. You can get nothing or get more than expected.

Going to be interesting!

[Jag95]

Jackson NWS saying that there's the possibility of accumulating snow (up to 1/2") in parts of central MS. Not likely, but "possible".

[frigidice77]

Jim cantore just mentioned that this pattern is nothing like a la nina when he was talkin about the cold next week. Im still thinking this winter may be colder than last years. Really hard to back that up.

[PTrackerLA]

Hmm thought this winter was supposed to be much warmer than last...but it sure is reminding me of 2009! Multiple freezes on tap this week with even harder freezes in the offing for next week with whispers of frozen precip across the south. Hey it's Christmas time, let it be cold and snowy!

[vbhoutex]

I think someone forgot to tell the weather gods that we're in a strong La Nina pattern.

[frigidice77]

Lol ill go tell them and we then may see that warm and dry january we are expecting. I dont think that gonna happen so easily given the current pattern.

I think someone forgot to tell the weather gods that we're in a strong La Nina pattern.

[wxman57]

Projected vertical temperature profile for New Orleans has precip forming in the sub-freezing air overnight but with temps above freezing from 5000 ft up all the way to the surface. Definitely a snow profile aloft, but will those flakes be able to survive the 5000 ft trip through above-freezing air to reach the ground? Perhaps. Of course, they'll melt upon reaching the ground.

Best chance to see a few flakes would be close to sunrise.

[Brent]

Sunday...Breezy. Much colder. Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain in the morning...then chance of snow in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.

THE PRIMARY EFFECT ON THE SURFACE LOW TRACK WILL BE IN THE AMOUNT
OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON SUNDAY. THE GFS IS PROBABLY A LITTLE
AGGRESSIVE IN ITS CYCLOGENESIS BUT ITS TRACK DOES LINE UP WITH THE
LATEST DGEX MODEL. WITH SUCH STRONG CYCLONE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
ON BACK SIDE OF SURFACE LOW...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ON BACK SIDE OF
SURFACE LOW WILL CAUSE RAPID COOLING OF THE AIR COLUMN AND EXPECT
THE RAIN/SNOW LINE TO SHIFT RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE EVEN IN THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BY MID AFTERNOON. SURFACE TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S...SO NO
ISSUES WITH ANY ACCUMULATION AT THIS TIME. THE BIG STORY WILL BE
THE STRONG NORTH WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY... AND COMBINED WITH FORECAST LOWS IN THE 16-22
DEGREE RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT COULD PRODUCE WIND CHILL INDICES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS.

[MGC]

That shortwave over OK is a bit more moist than I was expecting. NWS Shreveport is calling for snow with some accumulation over southern AR. Might see some flakes make it to the ground and melt to my north. Would be nice to see a few flakes down here. That would make it three years in a row for some type of winter weather way down in the heart of dixie......MGC

[Ivanhater]

The shortwave heading SE from Oklahoma is interesting as it the 18z GFS...Snow accumulation spreading all over the coastal areas of Louisiana.





NWS Mobile/Pensacola mentions some wintry precip possible overnight

STILL EXPECT SOME VERY
LIGHT FROZEN PRECIPITATION TO PASS THROUGH THE SUB-CLOUD DRY LEVEL
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES...AND PRIMARILY NORTH OF A
LINE FROM WIGGINS, MS TO ANDALUSIA, AL WEDNESDAY MORNING. A FEW RAIN
SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THIS LINE
LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING.

After this event, a major cold outbreak looks likely beginning of next week.

18z GFS showing teens spreading into the Florida Panhandle

[frigidice77]

Unfortunately, no snow for my location. Lol

[MGC]

Down to 39 at 7pm....precipitation is starting to show up on the Slidell radar, moving SE. I think the chances of some flakes down here and across parts of LA are increasing....MGC