Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[Rgv20]

Its hard to see so much cold air building up in NW Canada (per GFS&ECMWF) and no mechanism to dislodged it south. At any rate it seems the models have been having a hard time in the 4-5 day range so there still hope that things might change.

[CaptinCrunch]

I never was really sold on this winter being anything special. Sure I still think we will see some pretty cold temps by late January going into Feb, but the over all winter will be lack luster to say the least. La Nina should fade into a ENSO Summer, by next winter we should see ENSO netural or very weak El Nino condictions. The Winter following back to back La Ninas are typically colder across the U.S

[weatherdude1108]

We need some good news I need snow! It's been awhile since I haven't received any snow/ice before.

I agree. We need something!!!! Aaaaaarrrrrrgggggghhhhh! Until then we will have to live vicariously through other posters snow pics and winter stories from years past. Don't get me wrong, I love the fact people in West Texas got to see snow. Midland close to 20 inches is an amazing stat considering the east and midwest are nowhere close to that total. This winter blows the mind. Here's hoping for a mild summer and a brutal 2012-2013!

I will take a cold summer. I mean never getting above 95 the whole summer. The last two have been brutal.

I echo that motion/sentiment! Doesn't the Law of Averages come into play here?

[Portastorm]

I never was really sold on this winter being anything special. Sure I still think we will see some pretty cold temps by late January going into Feb, but the over all winter will be lack luster to say the least. La Nina should fade into a ENSO Summer, by next winter we should see ENSO netural or very weak El Nino condictions. The Winter following back to back La Ninas are typically colder across the U.S

I've seen discussions from some who say we'll have a fairly decent El Nino next winter. Long ways off and ENSO predictions this far out aren't worth much in my opinion.

As for a "lack luster" winter ... we'll see. I still think with 7-8 potential weeks left, we have plenty of opportunity for some wintry fun ahead. I'm still confident of at least one (if not several) event which involves many of us on this forum.

[weatherdude1108]

I never was really sold on this winter being anything special. Sure I still think we will see some pretty cold temps by late January going into Feb, but the over all winter will be lack luster to say the least. La Nina should fade into a ENSO Summer, by next winter we should see ENSO netural or very weak El Nino condictions. The Winter following back to back La Ninas are typically colder across the U.S

I've seen discussions from some who say we'll have a fairly decent El Nino next winter. Long ways off and ENSO predictions this far out aren't worth much in my opinion.

As for a "lack luster" winter ... we'll see. I still think with 7-8 potential weeks left, we have plenty of opportunity for some wintry fun ahead. I'm still confident of at least one (if not several) event which involves many of us on this forum.

We'll probably get one of those late season storms and freezes, after the plants and trees start budding.

[wxman57]

I've seen discussions from some who say we'll have a fairly decent El Nino next winter. Long ways off and ENSO predictions this far out aren't worth much in my opinion.

As for a "lack luster" winter ... we'll see. I still think with 7-8 potential weeks left, we have plenty of opportunity for some wintry fun ahead. I'm still confident of at least one (if not several) event which involves many of us on this forum.

The heart of winter has yet to arrive. One key as far as our (TX) winter weather potential is if there is any snow that falls between us and southern Canada over the next month. With the snow pack well north of the Canadian border it is quite hard to keep cold enough air overhead except for in the higher elevations of west and north TX.

Fine with me, of course. I sure enjoyed that 78 degree high last Sunday...

[Big O]

I attended (telephonically) the Impact Webinar Winter Update this morning and had a question that wasn't answered during the on-air portion of the webinar. However, the meteorologist making the presentation answered my question via e-mail just now. I share the question and answer for the sake of those, who like me, are on the ledge:

"What is needed in order to dislodge Arctic air that is forecast to build over Canada (i.e., how can we get the strong gradient pattern to buckle)?

The flow pattern in essence needs to slow down. One way you can do that is by decreasing the intensity of the circum-polar vortex over the northern latitudes by decreasing the thermal gradient from the Arctic to the sub tropics. One way you can do that is by warming the stratosphere which in essence will also warm the upper part of the troposphere. A warmer upper troposphere will decrease the temperature gradient from the Arctic to the sub tropics causing the westerly winds associated with the circum polar vortex to slow down. When the flow pattern slows down it has an increased likelihood of buckling and pulling cold air southward. Right now it does appear a major stratospheric warming even will come into play for late Jan so be advised we could see much colder air for late Jan or Feb moving across the Lower 48."

Keep hope alive!!! As Steve (Srain) likes to do:

[Ntxw]

All such great input! I guess being spoiled the past two years have gotten us a bit more angsty than usual. You know it's the end of the world when even wxman tries to talk us out of cliff jumping . At least the cold air is building (or predicted to) over western Canada, gotta do that first. Can't get to step 2 unless you go through 1 first!

Reality is I think the best way to send it down is through tropical forcing (MJO) even though the past month or so the PNA has been positive, it's been meager at best and with no help from the AO in source regions. The MJO needs to go through a solid 7-8-1 and truly send up that +PNA before we in Texas can tap into the potential. That's how it worked last Jan/February. Caveat is the MJO has been hard to predict where it will go and La Nina has kept it in check, but the daily SOI values have shown weakening which may help calm down the easterlies and let the convection eventually shift towards the dateline. At least that's what I think anyway.



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[Portastorm]

I attended (telephonically) the Impact Webinar Winter Update this morning and had a question that wasn't answered during the on-air portion of the webinar. However, the meteorologist making the presentation answered my question via e-mail just now. I share the question and answer for the sake of those, who like me, are on the ledge:

"What is needed in order to dislodge Arctic air that is forecast to build over Canada (i.e., how can we get the strong gradient pattern to buckle)?

The flow pattern in essence needs to slow down. One way you can do that is by decreasing the intensity of the circum-polar vortex over the northern latitudes by decreasing the thermal gradient from the Arctic to the sub tropics. One way you can do that is by warming the stratosphere which in essence will also warm the upper part of the troposphere. A warmer upper troposphere will decrease the temperature gradient from the Arctic to the sub tropics causing the westerly winds associated with the circum polar vortex to slow down. When the flow pattern slows down it has an increased likelihood of buckling and pulling cold air southward. Right now it does appear a major stratospheric warming even will come into play for late Jan so be advised we could see much colder air for late Jan or Feb moving across the Lower 48."

Keep hope alive!!! As Steve (Srain) likes to do:

Thanks Big O for sharing these insights and for the encouraging word!

You know, if we all think back a few weeks ... it seems to me that our initial discussion was that a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event looked possible by the middle of January and that a pattern change could happen afterwards. My understanding is that if a SSW does occur, it usually takes about 10 days to manifest itself in terms of real weather. Maybe we all jumped the gun a bit on the pattern change. We shall see.

And I see that Ntxw has his MoJO risin' ....

[hriverajr]

Long Range after this cold front looks very unimpressive, very zonal, very dry, been showing this for a few model runs now. For those wanting very cold weather and fun and games does not look good.

This upcoming front looks pretty strong though, Good pressure rises and good looking push via surface obs and satellite pictures. BTW their still is not a bunch of super cold air in NW Canada.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Long Range after this cold front looks very unimpressive, very zonal, very dry, been showing this for a few model runs now. For those wanting very cold weather and fun and games does not look good.

This upcoming front looks pretty strong though, Good pressure rises and good looking push via surface obs and satellite pictures. BTW their still is not a bunch of super cold air in NW Canada.

Any chance for flurries behind the front?

[Texas Snowman]

If someone had taken this idea to Vegas last fall - Midland leading the North Country on Jan. 11th in total snowfall (in a La Nina winter no less) - they'd be a gazillionaire now.

"The National Weather Service said 19.5 inches of snow have fallen in Midland since Dec. 1, with 10.6 inches coming Monday after a strong weather system moved in from New Mexico."

"Meteorologist Ryan Barnes said the total is more than three times than the 5.5 inches in Buffalo, N.Y. Duluth, Minn., has seen only 8.3 inches. Additionally, just 3.1 inches have fallen in Fargo, N.D. The total is even lower in Chicago at 1.9 inches."

http://www.mywesttexas.com/top_stories/ ... 0d342.html

[wxman57]

Long Range after this cold front looks very unimpressive, very zonal, very dry, been showing this for a few model runs now. For those wanting very cold weather and fun and games does not look good.

This upcoming front looks pretty strong though, Good pressure rises and good looking push via surface obs and satellite pictures. BTW their still is not a bunch of super cold air in NW Canada.

Any chance for flurries behind the front?

Can't say chances are zero, but they're somewhere below 0.001%.

[Texas Snowman]

Any chance for flurries behind the front?

Can't say chances are zero, but they're somewhere below 0.001%.

Oh, now that was cruel wxman57! LOL!

Us snow and cold misers are going to have to start wishing for a volcanic eruption somewhere in the Pacific so that Texas has a summer of weather so unbelievably cool that you're forced to wear a windbreaker on your bike rides!

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

That's too bad. I was hoping that the Red River counties might luck out and get some flurry action!

[gpsnowman]

[wxman57]

Oh, now that was cruel wxman57! LOL!

Us snow and cold misers are going to have to start wishing for a volcanic eruption somewhere in the Pacific so that Texas has a summer of weather so unbelievably cool that you're forced to wear a windbreaker on your bike rides!

Mount St. Helens erupted in May of 1980 and we had quite a hot summer that year (only beat by 2011). You'll need something like Krakatoa to erupt.

[Portastorm]

Oh, now that was cruel wxman57! LOL!

Us snow and cold misers are going to have to start wishing for a volcanic eruption somewhere in the Pacific so that Texas has a summer of weather so unbelievably cool that you're forced to wear a windbreaker on your bike rides!

Mount St. Helens erupted in May of 1980 and we had quite a hot summer that year (only beat by 2011). You'll need something like Krakatoa to erupt.

Now THAT is one funny exchange!

Thanks guys for the laughs this morning. Now I'm going to go back to the PWC and see what kind of Arctic Outbreak I can stir up for later this month.

[Kelarie]

Oh, now that was cruel wxman57! LOL!

Us snow and cold misers are going to have to start wishing for a volcanic eruption somewhere in the Pacific so that Texas has a summer of weather so unbelievably cool that you're forced to wear a windbreaker on your bike rides!

Mount St. Helens erupted in May of 1980 and we had quite a hot summer that year (only beat by 2011). You'll need something like Krakatoa to erupt.

If Yellowstone went, it would modify the temperature, just a tad...it would also depend on how much ash was thrown into the atmosphere.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

GFS is flip flopping on the arctic air coming down. Looks like it depends on the blocking in Greenland. Other than that, the models look awfully boring!!!!