Texas Winter 2012-2013

[ndale]

Austin nws is now mentioning possibility of some rain mixed with snow over Val Verde and Edwards counties.

[natlib]

Midland NWS starting to think snow for West Texas.....

345 PM CST TUE JAN 1 2013 /245 PM MST TUE JAN 1 2013/

...ACCUMULATING SNOWS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO WITH ASSOCIATED LIFT AND MOISTURE ARRIVING IN PARTS OF WEST
TEXAS EARLY THURSDAY. THE BEST CHANCES OF SNOW WILL BE IN THE
TRANS PECOS PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10. ONE TO
THREE INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS...
VAN HORN CORRIDOR...PRESIDIO VALLEY...AND THE BIG BEND REGION.
AROUND ONE INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THIS AREA INCLUDING THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE TRANS
PECOS AND PORTIONS OF THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS. SNOW WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PERMIAN
BASIN AS WELL AS FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE PECOS RIVER.

THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE THE
LOCATION AND AMOUNT OF SNOW. RESIDENTS ACROSS WEST TEXAS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS REGARDING THIS DEVELOPING
WINTER WEATHER EVENT...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD
WATCHES...WARNINGS...OR ADVISORIES BE ISSUED.

[ndale]

Forecast discussions from San Angelo and Austin nws both seem to indicate they have low confidence in very much moisture available with this system. The 18z gfs still shows snow accumulation right up to Austin's doorstep according to twisterdata.com.

[iorange55]

Interestingly enough, a local MET from CBS 11 here in North Texas mentioned that we would have a warm up this weekend and into next week. He then warned that the middle of the month (roughly 2 weeks or so away) could be very interesting, with cold weather and possible winter storm threats.

[Ntxw]

Interestingly enough, a local MET from CBS 11 here in North Texas mentioned that we would have a warm up this weekend and into next week. He then warned that the middle of the month (roughly 2 weeks or so away) could be very interesting, with cold weather and possible winter storm threats.

That's interesting, most TV mets rarely talk about 7 days away. They are really hesitant about long term forecasting.

Either way it's getting more certain the Rio Grande Valley will be seeing snow in some form or fashion and may get close to San Antonio. Maybe NW of there like Kerrville and Junction. Just east of El Paso near the big bend and Fort Stockton region in game also

[iorange55]

That's interesting, most TV mets rarely talk about 7 days away. They are really hesitant about long term forecasting.

Either way it's getting more certain the Rio Grande Valley will be seeing snow in some form or fashion and may get close to San Antonio. Maybe NW of there like Kerrville and Junction. Just east of El Paso near the big bend and Fort Stockton region in game also

I thought so, too. I believe it was Larry Mowry. He said he had been watching the patterns.

But, yeah, some places down there in Southwest Texas might actually pick up quite a bit of snow.

[Ntxw]

But, yeah, some places down there in Southwest Texas might actually pick up quite a bit of snow.

NAM has been persistent about trying to get stuff into Austin, as is the euro. We'll have to watch temperature profiles for Portastorm!

[Ntxw]

Sounding just northeast of Austin. Very close, need a little heavier precip to outdo the dry air at the surface for at least graupel



Del Rio's is a little better, some evap cooling would help. Probably snow



San Angelo has a little action but maybe virga, need more low level moisture

[coltsfan90]

The Weather Channel has thrown in a 30% chance of rain/snow showers Friday for Abilene. I would be so happy!

[MSUDawg]

That's interesting, most TV mets rarely talk about 7 days away. They are really hesitant about long term forecasting.

Either way it's getting more certain the Rio Grande Valley will be seeing snow in some form or fashion and may get close to San Antonio. Maybe NW of there like Kerrville and Junction. Just east of El Paso near the big bend and Fort Stockton region in game also

I thought so, too. I believe it was Larry Mowry. He said he had been watching the patterns.

But, yeah, some places down there in Southwest Texas might actually pick up quite a bit of snow.

Like Larry a lot....guess he is just trying to keep up with wfaa's steve mccauley who does this on facebook and on tv quite a bit.

[pwrdog]

6Z GFS looking better for central and even east texas for a dusting ???


Nice!

[iorange55]

6Z GFS looking better for central and even east texas for a dusting ???


Nice!

It is also mighty cold later in its run! It's going to be a fun month

[ndale]

NAM also shows some snow coverage in central tx. The nws here is still being conservative saying there could be a dusting in the hill country but here surface temps will stay above freezing.

[Portastorm]

Well, just as your Grey Goose-swilling mets at the Portastorm Weather Center told you days ago, a winter weather event is on the cusp of unfolding in portions of west and south central Texas. Here are some snippets from morning AFDs out of NWSFOs in the potentially affected areas.

San Angelo
LONG TERM...
ALL EYES ON THE CHANCE OF SNOW FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY
NIGHT. FIRST THOUGHT ON THE FORECAST WOULD BE AN INCREASING CHANCE
OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT...ENOUGH TO POSSIBLE CAUSE SOME TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES.

NOW...ON WITH THE DETAILS. UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE INTO MEXICO AND THEN ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LIFT FROM THIS SYSTEM SPREADS INTO
PORTIONS OF CROCKETT COUNTY AS EARLY AS THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THE
MAIN LIFT ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW...AND THUS WHERE THE PRECIP MAY FALL...BUT THERE ARE
ENOUGH SIMILARITIES TO INCREASE THE CONFIDENCE IN SOME SORT OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA.

MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW PROFILES OVER THE NORTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND CONCHO VALLEY THAT WOULD INDICATE SNOW...WITH THE
SITUATION TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST A LITTLE MORE QUESTIONABLE.
MOISTURE IS NOT ALL THAT ABUNDANT IN EITHER CASE...SO THE SYSTEM
WILL HAVE TO BRING A LITTLE OF ITS OWN AS WELL AS TAP A LITTLE
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. WATER VAPOR LOOKS SHOW A POTENT SYSTEM
CAPABLE OF DOING BOTH...SO THINKING THAT SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL CALL FOR AROUND AN INCH ALONG AND WEST OF A
STERLING CITY TO SAN ANGELO TO SONORA LINE FOR NOW...BUT WILL
ALMOST CERTAINLY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED SOME OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Austin/San Antonio
THIS UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MAY RESULT IN THE FIRST SNOW OF THE
WINTER SEASON ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND PORTIONS OF THE HILL
COUNTRY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SFC TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...BUT TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FOR A FEW
HOURS. ATTM WE WILL GO WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN AN
INCH. THE SNOW BAND WILL STRETCH FROM PANDALE TO JUNO TO
ROCKSPRINGS TO MOUNTAIN HOME.

Fort Worth
LOOKING WEST...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NICE UPPER LOW
DROPPING SOUTHEAST OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS FEATURE
WILL MIGRATE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT DAY BEFORE
LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS FRIDAY. IT
APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP TO AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN-MOST COUNTIES. LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESS
PROGS...A BRIEF ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MAY OCCUR DURING
THIS TIME OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN-MOST COUNTIES...WHERE THERE SHOULD
BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT TO PRECIPITATE. FEEL AT THIS TIME
THAT IT IS ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING TIME FRAME...GENERALLY WEST OF THE WACO AREA AND
SOUTH OF STEPHENVILLE.

[Rgv20]

Let it Rain!!

[Ntxw]

Things are becoming a little clearer about this strat-warm event. The PV will thoroughly be broken down and there are a few candidates to receive the mass of cold that will likely be funneled south. Another warming late in the game should occur near Greenland and eastern Canada and this will probably usher in a big -NAO. As the Asian warming moves east it too will force a -EPO. We saw what it did to Europe last winter and that is one of the possibilities for NA.

This is what the ECMWF and GFS are both progging parking the cold over southern Canada and spilling it into the US as the north pole generates some big highs. Perhaps the GFS is giving us hints of what it could look like at the surface but not yet able to grasp fully due to resolution. The AO has refused to go positive and is delaying/shortening the transition for our little warm up/thaw.

[vbhoutex]

Some radars(Weatherbug and Intellicast) are showing light Winter precip W to NW to N of Austin metro area. Are we getting any ground truth on it?

[Portastorm]

Some radars(Weatherbug and Intellicast) are showing light Winter precip W to NW to N of Austin metro area. Are we getting any ground truth on it?

It is snowing to beat the band here at the Portastorm Weather Center!! (ok, not really ... but I have always wanted to post something like this).

Just cloudy, damp, and cold on my ride into work into downtown Austin this morning. Didn't see anything falling from the sky. I'll check with NWS and see if we have any reports.

Edit update: Per NWS Chat, no reports of sleet or snow or any precip of a frozen variety.

[Tireman4]

Reports of light sleet in the NW part of Houston and Harris county...very light....

[Ntxw]

Reports of light sleet in the NW part of Houston and Harris county...very light....

I wish HGX would send up balloons, it would really help up in such a major pop center! Using the RAP profiles, the column does support sleet or graupel. Should be very light though, keep your eyes wide open!