Texas Winter 2013-2014

[dhweather]

12zECMWF 500mb Anomalies for day 10....Full fledged Arctic attack for much of the US

http://img21.imageshack.us/img21/7418/0sb2.png

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Well, at least the 540 line is closer to us. SNOW, not ICE.

[ronyan]

That 500 MB is insane, Portastorm has that dream map on photoshop somewhere in his hard drive. Look at the connection to Siberia. How do temps look in Siberia around this time?

Looking at the reports from wunderground: -48F is the lowest. Not terribly cold for Siberia. These model maps are incredible, I've looked at hundreds over the years watching these arctic outbreaks and haven't seen many to compare. If I remember early 2011 had some really insane forecasts for temps in the 10-15 day range, and we ended up getting to 22 right on the coast during that freeze.

[orangeblood]

If that ridge over Nova Scotia hooks up with the Alaskan Ridge, as per what the Euro Control has been hinting at, we could be talking about a prolonged severe cold period ( > 10 days). It would lock in the cold over the lower 48 all the way through the new year and into January.


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[Tireman4]

That 500 MB is insane, Portastorm has that dream map on photoshop somewhere in his hard drive. Look at the connection to Siberia. How do temps look in Siberia around this time?

I have to admit ... if I'm drawing up my perfect 500mb map for Texas winter, that's pretty darn close! The only thing I'd add is a nice persistent, cutoff low in the desert Southwest.

Did some of the PWC mets drink a truckload of Grey Goose and send this thing to the NWS? Has to be. What the Sam Hill?

[orangeblood]

I know we are extremely far out, but as of right now do you guys think this is going a dry, ice, or snow event for the dfw area?

Too early to get into specifics but normally with this type cold someone will have a winter weather event. It doesn't take much moisture to get a decent amount of snow in temperatures like that.

[weatherdude1108]

I'm planning to go to Houston on the 21st and not head back to Austin until the following weekend or so. Should I go ahead and shut the water off to my house to be safe? Don't have any pipes in the attic and the heater will be on in the low 60s. Just a little paranoid of the maps.

You don't have to make that decision now, wait until you're about to leave then check back here. But if it IS going to get that cold, then you should shut off the water before you leave.

What?! The Weatherdude Weather Center is going to be left unmanned during a possible winter weather event in Austin?! Pshaw.

Wxman57 is absolutely right. You've got plenty of time to make that call. Best to get educated now on what you would need to do in the event of extreme cold and/or extended cold temps. Then, a day or two before you leave, you can examine the latest and make the decision.

Well, I'll be in Houston for a few days, then San Antonio the rest of the week. So I'll just be down the road and can experience a little bit of Austin's event if it comes to fruition. Thanks guys for the tip/advice!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

That 500 MB is insane, Portastorm has that dream map on photoshop somewhere in his hard drive. Look at the connection to Siberia. How do temps look in Siberia around this time?

Looking at the reports from wunderground: -48F is the lowest. Not terribly cold for Siberia. These model maps are incredible, I've looked at hundreds over the years watching these arctic outbreaks and haven't seen many to compare. If I remember early 2011 had some really insane forecasts for temps in the 10-15 day range, and we ended up getting to 22 right on the coast during that freeze.

-48F for now, the temp will dropping until the air starts to move. Not sure how fast the temp can drop there but it will continue to cool down until it moves

[ronyan]

-48F for now, the temp will dropping until the air starts to move. Not sure how fast the temp can drop there but it will continue to cool down until it moves

Agreed. Watch the temps in that region over the next few days...plenty of time for it to get colder there before the cold moves into Canada.

Russia temps: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/fin ... ery=russia
Verhojansk and Ojmjakon are good stations to look at for the coldest temps.

[dhweather]

Joe B's tweet

ECWMF "control" run takes Siberian system over pole then has it over N Plains by 22cnd. If right would rival 89,83

[PTrackerLA]

Add me to the HOLY CRAP list. Is there anything to stop a modified version of that heading all the way through the gulf coast? Doesn't look like it to me.


It better freaking snow! lol

[Tireman4]

Joe B's tweet

ECWMF "control" run takes Siberian system over pole then has it over N Plains by 22cnd. If right would rival 89,83


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BbO1qyVCUAAZ1ww.jpg

Yikes. Not just yikes, but double yikes. We may have to send Wxman 57 not one, but two high output propane heaters. Those bad boys work, I tell ya.


http://www.northerntool.com/shop/tools/ ... 7AodGBEAUQ

[orangeblood]

Yeah, Euro control is coldest of the bunch. I'm speechless !!!

850 temps on the EC Dec. 22nd

[Tireman4]

Yeah, Euro control is coldest of the bunch. I'm speechless !!!

850 temps on the EC Dec. 22nd

This thing has got to modify somewhat. I mean goodness gracious.

[Portastorm]

I'm running out of adjectives.

Still want to see several more days of agreement but if this is showing up by the weekend, the PWC is going into All In-Lucy I'm Kicking that Damn Football-Sound the Alarm Claxen mode!

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Hahahahahahah (in my Evil Winter voice).

45 degrees below normal in the Panhandle??????

[KatDaddy]

Cant believe what I am seeing. This would be downright extreme should this materialize.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Portastorm... I'm going to Lake Louise this weekend. I'll report from up there how much Grey Goose it takes to stay warm in sub zero weather.

By the way, thanks for the good convo on twitter.

[newtotex]

Joe B's tweet

ECWMF "control" run takes Siberian system over pole then has it over N Plains by 22cnd. If right would rival 89,83

This is probably a dumb/obvious question. But if this were to verify, what kind of temperatures would we be looking at in North Texas?

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Joe B's tweet

ECWMF "control" run takes Siberian system over pole then has it over N Plains by 22cnd. If right would rival 89,83

This is probably a dumb/obvious question. But if this were to verify, what kind of temperatures would we be looking at in North Texas?

Single Digits... could see below zero readings like 89 blast.

[wxman57]

A special note to anyone posting model graphics from WeatherBell. Such posting of images violates their terms and conditions:

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You can discuss what you saw in their models but you cannot post graphics from their premium or commercial site here. I'm not sure if the above terms and conditions apply to a graphic that JB or Ryan Maue has tweeted to the public, however.