Texas Winter 2015-2016

[srainhoutx]

12Z Euro has a 500mb low near Del Rio at hour 192 with a Coastal wave developing near Brownsville.

[Brent]

Looks like another great run for Central and South Texas

[Ntxw]

Yeah 12z Euro likes deep south Texas (Rio Grande) and areas just west of Austin and south of San Antonio

[Brent]

The 12z Euro still has a little snow on Saturday, not as much as the 0z, but it does have a band of a trace to around an inch in mostly the northeastern and eastern DFW metro and along/north of 20 towards Louisiana

How are the temps looking? The noon forecasts had us low to mid forties Saturday and Sunday.

It really depends on which model wins out... the low/mid 40s is a compromise between the colder Euro and the warmer GFS... if we see more consistency from the Euro then temps will be colder obviously.

At 210 hours the 12z Euro has a band of 1-2" nudging into the western areas of Austin with the heaviest widespread snow south of San Antonio even.,.. 5-7" falls east of Del Rio. This run keeps the snow further southwest with 1-2" in the areas just north of Corpus Christi.

The 12z GFS had no snow at all that I saw anywhere.

[Portastorm]

I see y'all easily beat me to the punch. Yep, the 12z Euro op run shows plenty of snow in South Texas. Shifts the bulk of the heaviest snow to the south of the Hill Country into areas southwest of San Antonio and southeast of Del Rio. Austin still gets an inch or two out of it. Snow or sleet or whatever starts falling Monday evening per King Euro.

Did anyone see anything remotely similar in the 12z GFS? I didn't. Looks like both models are miles apart.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Im having trouble seeing exactly where the storm drops snow right now. This storm is for Monday for South Texas etc?

[Brent]

I see y'all easily beat me to the punch. Yep, the 12z Euro op run shows plenty of snow in South Texas. Shifts the bulk of the heaviest snow to the south of the Hill Country into areas southwest of San Antonio and southeast of Del Rio. Austin still gets an inch or two out of it. Snow or sleet or whatever starts falling Monday evening per King Euro.

Did anyone see anything remotely similar in the 12z GFS? I didn't. Looks like both models are miles apart.

The GFS says what winter storm Monday? 60s for highs... 70s in Corpus Christi...

[Portastorm]

Hopefully with wxman57 out of state at #AMS2016, maybe we can take back the thermostat controls and turn this puppy down significantly so many of us can get some wintry precip!

[Stormcenter]

I'll believe it when I see it but if I had to I'd rather put all my eggs into the
EURO than the GFS model. Get the snow plows ready folks just in case.

[stormlover2013]

models struggled all last year with this, it would show something like 8-9 days out and then boom it got inconsistent and nothing panned out

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Really disappointed in the GFS between 5-10 days this year. Having lots of difficulties. Yes, i love the idea that the Euro is hanging onto it

[Yukon Cornelius]

Really disappointed in the GFS between 5-10 days this year. Having lots of difficulties. Yes, i love the idea that the Euro is hanging onto it

I haven't had a chance to keep up with anything today. What is the euro showing?

[wxman57]

:uarrow:

Hopefully with wxman57 out of state at #AMS2016, maybe we can take back the thermostat controls and turn this puppy down significantly so many of us can get some wintry precip!

Not on your life, Portastorm. My hand remains partly on the thermostat, even from New Orleans. It's a tenuous grip, at best, though. It would be great if we got a big snow event across central, south, and SE TX next week, but I'll believe it when I see it. Far more likely is cold rain with a few sleet pellets - useless cold. I agree, though, that there's a potential for a significant ice/snow event in TX next week.

On a side note, met up with Phil Klotzbach at lunch. It's too early to have much confidence in the hurricane season, but we agree the numbers will be somewhere between 5 or 6 and 14-15. There's too little good data to identify many analog seasons - all strong El Nino season endings are not alike. He did stress how cold the northern Atlantic is - record cold. However, we don't really know what that will mean as far as the upcoming hurricane season.

[wxman57]

Really disappointed in the GFS between 5-10 days this year. Having lots of difficulties. Yes, i love the idea that the Euro is hanging onto it

I haven't had a chance to keep up with anything today. What is the euro showing?

Big snow event in 8-9 days for south-central TX to south TX - centered east of Del Rio and west of Corpus.

[BigB0882]

Really disappointed in the GFS between 5-10 days this year. Having lots of difficulties. Yes, i love the idea that the Euro is hanging onto it

I haven't had a chance to keep up with anything today. What is the euro showing?

Big snow event in 8-9 days for south-central TX to south TX - centered east of Del Rio and west of Corpus.

Does any of that make it to Louisiana?

[Brent]

The 18z GFS is now agreeing with the last several runs of the Euro showing a light snow band across parts of Texas on Saturday, this run is a bit further south than the Euro has been, with the band mostly south of DFW but it's an interesting trend maybe



as for Mon/Tue, it continues to say what winter storm... no cold air and barely even some light rain showing up at the same time the Euro has a snowstorm.

[Ntxw]

The 18z GFS is now agreeing with the last several runs of the Euro showing a light snow band across parts of Texas on Saturday, this run is a bit further south than the Euro has been, with the band mostly south of DFW but it's an interesting trend maybe

So does the GEM. The period to watch in DFW is this coming Saturday. At 5h the vorticity is vigorous but just a tad dry.

[Stormcenter]

Can someone post the EURO's graphics for next week's snowstorm? Thanks!

The 18z GFS is now agreeing with the last several runs of the Euro showing a light snow band across parts of Texas on Saturday, this run is a bit further south than the Euro has been, with the band mostly south of DFW but it's an interesting trend maybe



as for Mon/Tue, it continues to say what winter storm... no cold air and barely even some light rain showing up at the same time the Euro has a snowstorm.

[Brent]

Can someone post the EURO's graphics for next week's snowstorm? Thanks!

[dhweather]

We are just going to have to wait to see what, if anything, happens. The models are not doing us much good right now, both have been struggling.