Texas Winter 2016-2017

[Brent]

GFS again dumping the arctic Jan 2nd-3rd...it's in Euro range now so we'll see if it agrees.

Highs below freezing January 4th-5th at DFW

Snow in Central Texas at 252-264 hours(January 5th). Some single digit lows appear just west of Austin from snow cover.

[CaptinCrunch]

GFS again dumping the arctic Jan 2nd-3rd...it's in Euro range now so we'll see if it agrees.

Highs below freezing January 4th-5th at DFW

Snow in Central Texas at 252-264 hours(January 5th). Some single digit lows appear just west of Austin from snow cover.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... cus_42.png

[Brent]

this run buries Austin...

yeah not happening

[CaptinCrunch]

this run buries Austin...

yeah not happening

Sure is pretty though

[Portastorm]

Geez Brent, you don't have to rub it in.

[Brent]

:uarrow:

Geez Brent, you don't have to rub it in.

lol sorry, it's just someone else from Austin elsewhere always bemoans how it never snows in Austin so that was still on my mind.

Just saw a snow map lol... Austin/Houston get a few inches but a foot falls in Northern Louisiana...

[JDawg512]

[ThunderSleetDreams]

That's about as pretty an upper air pattern one could script if you want Winter Weather in Texas.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

GEFS agrees on the 500mb

[Brent]

Euro is even faster with the cold... with at least some lows near freezing and highs in the low 40s next Monday at DFW. GFS is much warmer/wetter then.

However it's much less impressed with the real cold on the GFS at day 10. Has DFW near 70 when the GFS is below freezing for highs.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Late but merry christmas guys! That blocking on the Euro near Greenland is INTENSE. Get that to connect with the Aleutian high and we can get a true, Block, Lock, and Drop it kind of pattern hahaha.

Been super busy lately so still catching up with some of the models.

Wow, 0z shows some fun hahaha

[aggiecutter]

[wxman57]

I'm seeing zero agreement between the EC & GFS late this week and next. The coldest the Euro has for D-FW is upper 20s next Monday, then it warms to the 70s by Wednesday. There's also very little run-to-run agreement in the GFS. Don't trust it beyond about this Friday.

[Portastorm]

I'm seeing zero agreement between the EC & GFS late this week and next. The coldest the Euro has for D-FW is upper 20s next Monday, then it warms to the 70s by Wednesday. There's also very little run-to-run agreement in the GFS. Don't trust it beyond about this Friday.

Speaking of little agreement, even the Euro operational runs are divergent over the last few cycles. Seems like ALL of the models are struggling with the upcoming pattern.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I'm seeing zero agreement between the EC & GFS late this week and next. The coldest the Euro has for D-FW is upper 20s next Monday, then it warms to the 70s by Wednesday. There's also very little run-to-run agreement in the GFS. Don't trust it beyond about this Friday.

The last 6 runs of the GFS and GEFS (since 0z 12/25 thru 6z 12/26) have been very consistent on the 500mb. It's been very consistent within a 12-18 hour window of a big front coming, and surprisingly consistent with a winter storm over Texas.

I don't put much stock in the winter storm, but the front is nothing to sneeze at. A lot of heat misers in your profession are starting to talk about the blocking and what they think will happen.

I went and checked the 6-10 day scores for the GFS and Euro and I was shocked to see the GFS had performed better than the Euro albeit both were terrible.

[gpsnowman]

https://youtu.be/umDDzdA6V2g
Every winter we talk about 1899,1983,1985,1989. I posted this a few years back. It is Troy Dungan from January 1985. I believe this is the second of two arctic blasts that winter. I was only 11 but remember this was a doozy with a couple snow days from school. The weather report starts at the 10:20 mark. Notice how casual Troy is as he delivers his report. A system like this today would be hype city with 10 reporters out in the field with live updates. Funny how weather reporting has evolved over the last 30 years. Enjoy the trip down memory lane for us DFW residents.

[Portastorm]

Ah January of 1985 ... a great month for winter weather! We had two separate snowfalls here in Austin. I have fond memories of both events. What can we do to get a repeat of January 1985 for DFW and Austin?!

[Snowman67]

I'm seeing zero agreement between the EC & GFS late this week and next. The coldest the Euro has for D-FW is upper 20s next Monday, then it warms to the 70s by Wednesday. There's also very little run-to-run agreement in the GFS. Don't trust it beyond about this Friday.

Unless it shows warmth - correct?

[weatherdude1108]

:uarrow:

Ah January of 1985 ... a great month for winter weather! We had two separate snowfalls here in Austin. I have fond memories of both events. What can we do to get a repeat of January 1985 for DFW and Austin?!

San Antonio also!

[TexasF6]

I saw a near blizzard over Austin & Williamson County!!!!!!!!!!! 7.5in of snow!!!!!!!!!!!! Bring it ON!!!!!!!!!! I know its lala land, but that was fun!!!!