Texas Winter 2018-2019

[gpsnowman]

Happy New Year everyone. Unfortunately I have to work this morning on the first day of 2019. Well, seems our hope lies in the prospect of a back loaded winter because a warm up is likely until mid month. Still plenty of time for winter fun as we go deeper into winter. I am convinced we will hit the snow lottery at least once this season. Until then have a great start to the new year!!!!

[Ralph's Weather]

All models are in good agreement that Wed could be pretty icy for N TX though as others have said I'm not sure it will be quite cold enough fire roads to get bad though overpasses could. For the Thu/Fri snow event we are still watching the task of the upper low. Models are centered on the I20 corridor fur the track right now but they are not wrapping around much moisture. The Euro does have more SE TX members than OK members so a more southerly track is possible which could draw up more moisture for N TX.

[gpsnowman]

All models are in good agreement that Wed could be pretty icy for N TX though as others have said I'm not sure it will be quite cold enough fire roads to get bad though overpasses could. For the Thu/Fri snow event we are still watching the task of the upper low. Models are centered on the I20 corridor fur the track right now but they are not wrapping around much moisture. The Euro does have more SE TX members than OK members so a more southerly track is possible which could draw up more moisture for N TX.

Bored and slow at work. I am intrigued with the snow potential on Thursday. Just yesterday the forecasted high for Thursday was 50 now I see 30's. It is so difficult to get snow here. It is even more difficult to forecast it. Just one ingredient off in the snow recipe and the whole dish is ruined.

[wxman57]

I'm working this morning, too. TS Pabuk in the South China Sea and TC Penny over the Cape York Peninsula (Australia). It still looks like a cold rain for the D-FW area tomorrow/Thursday. Probably mixed with some sleet and freezing rain. Can't rule out a snowflake as precip ends Thursday, but it won't amount to much that far east. Temps in the lower to mid 30s Thursday in D-FW.

That's about it for a few weeks. May have to wait until the last week of January for the next snow chance in NE TX. GFS has some reasonably cold air in northern Canada by the 15th, but no way to get it down here yet.

Happy New Year, everyone!

[gpsnowman]

Nice solid, low cloud deck this morning with a cold north wind. I always enjoy this type of winter day. Something about the combination of gray skies, leafless trees, and cold air/wind reminds me of why I love winter time.

[gboudx]

0z Euro ends with multiple days of 70s btw looks like a fast warmup after this storm

Awful news...

I love these last few posts tonight. Every time I go away for a few hours or sleep, the opposite of what was happening last has flipped 180 and the opposite is now in play. This has me looking forward to reading about a potential massive storm when I wake up.

I hope this isn’t a Rip Van Winkle situation where you sleep for 30years waiting for a massive winter storm.

[CaptinCrunch]

It's 36 currently and I dont expect temps to get out of the upper 30s today. I'm still in the ice camp for counties along and west of the i35 corridor in NTX. If precip get heavy enough it will drag down sub freezing temp to the surface.

[srainhoutx]

Overnight fog was brutal across portions of Austin and Houston. Several multi car accidents occurred and a least 2 of those involved cars of at least 30 or more in the Austin and Houston Areas.

New Year morning weather Update from Jeff:

Heavy rainfall remains possible starting late tonight and continuing into Thursday morning.

Fog:
A rare combination of factors came together overnight to produce extremely dense fog/smoke and hazardous air quality. Early yesterday evening a nocturnal inversion became established over the region as the surface cooled quickly after sunset which results in a very stable calm layer of air about a few hundred feet thick. Large amounts of particulate were discharged into this stable layer during the evening hours from local fireworks and this particulate led to enhanced condensation nuclei that then resulted in rapid fog formation. Several locations dropped to zero visibility overnight. In addition, the lack of any wind and this stable air layer prevented in mixing of the air mass and the smoke was trapped at the surface all night leading to hazardous air quality. With the sun up and surface mixing in progress…the stable inversion is breaking allowing mixing of the air mass and rapid dissipation of the fog and increasing air quality.

Next Storm System:
A strong upper level low pressure system will dig into the SW US and then eject across TX Wednesday and Thursday with numerous weather impacts across the state. Freezing and frozen precipitation will be common from the TX Hill Country into portions of N TX, while across SE TX widespread rainfall…some heavy is likely. Surface front is moving across the area currently and will move offshore this morning and stall. Water vapor shows a large plume of dense moisture moving NE from the central Pacific toward western MX and eventually TX over the next 8-12 hours. As forcing aloft increasing, surface low pressure will form over the NW Gulf of Mexico resulting in significant amounts of moisture being forced up and over the surface cold dome entrenched over the region. Clouds will rapidly increase later today and showers will begin to develop late tonight into early Wednesday. Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall appear to develop over the region by Wednesday afternoon and linger well into Wednesday night and Thursday morning. There is some concern with the potential for cell training as being shown by some models with bands of thunderstorms that move SW to NE over the area.

Rainfall Amounts:
Widespread rainfall totals of 1-3 inches look likely with isolated amounts of 4-5 inches. Will focus the highest amounts from the New Caney area NE toward Lake Livingston and then NE into WC LA. PWS do surge toward 1.5 inches by late Wednesday which is significant for this time of year and when overspread with strong lift some decent short duration rainfall totals will be possible. Could see a few 1-2 inch per hour rates in the stronger cells especially along the US 59 corridor.

Hydro:
Many watersheds are elevated and flood waves passing through the systems from the heavy rains last week. Grounds are completely saturated and nearly everything that falls will be converted to run-off. Most concern is for the area rivers which are already significantly elevated. The widespread nature of the event will put a lot of water across area river basins and will likely force several into flood stage. There is also concern for the watersheds that respond like a river system: Cypress Creek, Little Cypress Creek, Willow Creek, Spring Creek, Cedar Bayou, and the creeks that drain into Addicks and Barker Reservoirs. It should also be noted that Conroe, Livingston, and Somerville are all in their flood pools and have little room to hold inflows (except for Somerville as this is a flood control lake). Significant rises are area watersheds will be possible with this event and some may rise to or above flood threshold levels. Additionally, heavy rainfall may result in roadway flooding in both rural areas from run-off and urban areas from higher intensity rainfall rates.

[rwfromkansas]

Woke up to no real change (actually less likely now maybe it seems...roller coaster on here).

NWS sticking to guns. Nothing for DFW with ice anyway.

Another failure may be on the way.

May be looking at moving if the economy up north can get better...

[bubba hotep]

Nothing overly interesting in the overnight models, it looks like the trend from yesterday mostly stalled or even reversed a bit. It wouldn't take big shifts to put winter wx solidly in DFW but even the 09z SREF keeps nearly all members above freezing throughout the event. Looking at current temps, the 12z 3k NAM looks spot on in the very short range and it keeps temps above freezing in DFW during the entire event.

Maybe the Euro gives us last second hope at 11:45 am this morning?

[SouthernMet]

I guess y’all haven’t seen the latest RGEM

[bubba hotep]

At least we aren't in Tulsa (condolences to those who are reading from Tulsa)...

Last 5 Euro runs for Tulsa:

Snow - 1", 5", 4", 17", then the New Years run delivers 0"!!

[Cerlin]

Overnight runs left much to be desired, and i think my confidence has dropped a bunch for anything to happen. Nothing’s ruled out but I’m doubtful to say the least.

[DonWrk]

I guess y’all haven’t seen the latest RGEM

Keeps everything isolated to the west?

[rwfromkansas]

Why is it less likely than yesterday when the 500 low is further south? A lot to learn still I guess. Just not as cold?

[spencer817]

Another most likely disappointment for DFW. Seems like we cant get anything around here if our lives depended on it, smh

[bubba hotep]

12z GFS is about 1-1.5" of cold rain for DFW, bigger totals of rain for Central and East Texas. It looks like '19 will get off to a soggy start.

[starsfan65]

12z GFS is about 1-1.5" of cold rain for DFW, bigger totals of rain for Central and East Texas. It looks like '19 will get off to a soggy start.

Do we have to give up hope for winter winter here?

[bubba hotep]

12z GFS is about 1-1.5" of cold rain for DFW, bigger totals of rain for Central and East Texas. It looks like '19 will get off to a soggy start.

Do we have to give up hope for winter winter here?

Probably until the 2nd half or last 3rd of January based on the latest ensemble runs...

[gpsnowman]

12z GFS is about 1-1.5" of cold rain for DFW, bigger totals of rain for Central and East Texas. It looks like '19 will get off to a soggy start.

That is a lot of water. Too bad temps can't be 4 degrees colder, man that would be glorious. What a crying shame.