Texas Winter 2021-2022

[wxman57]

You Canadians (aka OK residents) can have all the cold and snow you want, as long as you don't let the cold reach SE TX. I see a little snow for southern Canada Saturday evening (Brent's area). Euro backed off on 8-10" into Atlanta and now has less than an inch there. In addition, the really cold air has now drained out of western Canada and is shifting eastward across Canada. Lots of warming in Alaska. With a warmer source region (for TX) over the coming weeks, it'll be hard for us to get any extreme cold.

I see the very long rang GFS still trying to develop a Texas ice storm around the 26th-27th. Looks quite fishy, to me. One morning near 32F in Houston is too much cold for me. Interesting that the GFS develops two more west Gulf lows over the next couple of weeks. No cold air to work with, though.

[Cpv17]

The GEFS has shifted the bulk ok the cold east now as well.

[Iceresistance]

The GEFS has shifted the bulk ok the cold east now as well.

I don't understand this . . .

Also, Ensemble Member #7 (Very unlikely to happen since it's the only member to feature that, but it's within 300 Hours though) would like to say otherwise.

[orangeblood]

The GEFS has shifted the bulk ok the cold east now as well.

With an East Based QBO, La Nina and low solar, expect the core of the cold Northeast...doesn't mean it can't get cold here, just the core will be off to the NE. A big component of what concentrated the core of the cold down the central US during Feb 2021 was the West Based QBO, I'd suspect the change to East Based will shift the core unless we can get another Solar Flux pop soon. A solar flux pop can sometimes give rise to a stronger SE US ridge pushing more of the cold this direction.

[Ntxw]

For the weekend NAM is shifting west again. Every run keeps hitting west. I was kidding about Denver to El Paso but it may just happen at this rate wow.

[bubba hotep]

12z NAM doing NAM things?

[bubba hotep]

All the 12z Hi-res models have a similar look. Wonder if we'll see additional shifts in the global runs?

[txtwister78]

The weekend system is definitely looking more like a cutter and as mentioned prior will more than likely rob the SE and I-95 corridor in the NE of a big-ticket snow event.

[bubba hotep]

The weekend system is definitely looking more like a cutter and as mentioned prior will more than likely rob the SE and I-95 corridor in the NE of a big-ticket snow event.

Yea, some pretty nice melts out on social media over the 12z model trends lol

This place has got nothing on the East Coast weenies!

[Ntxw]

The weekend system is definitely looking more like a cutter and as mentioned prior will more than likely rob the SE and I-95 corridor in the NE of a big-ticket snow event.

Yea, some pretty nice melts out on social media over the 12z model trends lol

This place has got nothing on the East Coast weenies!

Save the tears . No pity on those who gets 27" blizzards and claim half a foot is mood snow...

I don't know how much more 'west' it can trend but we're close. Good to see the southern lobe of the shortwave playing a bigger part.

[Iceresistance]

12z NAM doing NAM things?

Yes, I got NAMed

[orangeblood]

The weekend system is definitely looking more like a cutter and as mentioned prior will more than likely rob the SE and I-95 corridor in the NE of a big-ticket snow event.

Still way too early to call much of anything at this point....

[txtwister78]

The weekend system is definitely looking more like a cutter and as mentioned prior will more than likely rob the SE and I-95 corridor in the NE of a big-ticket snow event.

Still way too early to call much of anything at this point....

Perhaps but with the trends more west over the past few days across the southern plains, seems like a logical outcome right now, however to your point, we should get a better read on things tomorrow when the system is entering the US and adequately sampled by models.

[Ntxw]

What's to be part of our system is spinning off the west coast.



Of note the gradual progression for this system to be amplified has really taken it to become a beast on the models. Big cutoff ULL low.

[orangeblood]

For the weekend NAM is shifting west again. Every run keeps hitting west. I was kidding about Denver to El Paso but it may just happen at this rate wow.

SREF continues the same trend, southwest shift of precip shield....looking at upper level temp profiles, wrap around precip should be cold enough for snow.

[Iceresistance]

The Weekend system has trended more Negative Tilt in the past several runs, this could allow it to produce more snow closer to I-35.

[Brent]

12z NAM doing NAM things?

Yes, I got NAMed

over 6 inches? That would be something

[Iceresistance]

12z NAM doing NAM things?

Yes, I got NAMed

over 6 inches? That would be something

https://i.ibb.co/fqmF8Lm/namconus-asnow-scus-29-1.png

The 10:1 Ratio slightly inflated according to the NAM, & since the storm has not yet finished with that area, the full totals may never be known for now.

[Brent]

Yes, I got NAMed

over 6 inches? That would be something

https://i.ibb.co/fqmF8Lm/namconus-asnow-scus-29-1.png

The 10:1 Ratio slightly inflated according to the NAM, & since the storm has not yet finished with that area, the full totals may never be known for now.

Yeah the snow isn't even close to over there

For what it's worth the NWS has less than an inch til you get into Arkansas

[Ntxw]

over 6 inches? That would be something

https://i.ibb.co/fqmF8Lm/namconus-asnow-scus-29-1.png

The 10:1 Ratio slightly inflated according to the NAM, & since the storm has not yet finished with that area, the full totals may never be known for now.

Yeah the snow isn't even close to over there

For what it's worth the NWS has less than an inch til you get into Arkansas

If it continues west and amps more of Arkansas may stay rain longer.