Texas Winter 2023-2024

[CaptinCrunch]

00z Euro and EPS were not encouraging for the DFW area. It also gets DFW back up to almost 70F next Thursday

If it's not going to snow, then I'm fine with a quick warmup.

Near 70? What the heck lol wasn’t expecting to hear that. Went from a long duration event to a short one just like that.

No one said the models were smart

[wxman57]

Here are the plots from all 00Z models and ensembles. Canadian remains ridiculously cold (for Houston). It did the same thing with the past two hard freezes here and was quite wrong. I'd saytemps across Houston will fall below freezing Monday late afternoon or evening, reaching the low to mid-20s Tuesday morning. Upper teens are possible, but not likely at this time. After a brief rise above freezing late Tuesday morning through mid afternoon, temps will likely fall to below freezing by sunset and reach the mid to upper 20s Wednesday morning. Freeze ends late Wednesday morning. No precip in the cold air here.

Most models bring return flow back by Thursday. Thus, the rapid warm up. Some may be overdoing the warm up. Hopefully, this is our only 3 days of winter for 2024.

[wxman57]

00Z EC says "No snow for you!" in the D-FW area.



However, it does say "have some freezing rain" in the D-FW area:

[bubba hotep]

00Z EC says "No snow for you!" in the D-FW area.

http://wxman57.com/images/ECSnow00ZJan10.JPG

However, it does say "have some freezing rain" in the D-FW area:

http://wxman57.com/images/ECZR00ZJan10.JPG

Measurable QPF is mainly confined to areas east of 35. Far NE Texas, Arky, and Eastern OK are the places to be.

[bubba hotep]

Now, the bright side, the s/w responsible for any winter wx won't even come onshore until Saturday afternoon. So still plenty of time for things to change, but the EPS trending dryer is pretty hard to ignore.

[wxman57]

00Z EC says "No snow for you!" in the D-FW area.

http://wxman57.com/images/ECSnow00ZJan10.JPG

However, it does say "have some freezing rain" in the D-FW area:

http://wxman57.com/images/ECZR00ZJan10.JPG

Measurable QPF is mainly confined to areas east of 35. Far NE Texas, Arky, and Eastern OK are the places to be.

There is still too much variability in the models to have any confidence in temps or precip next week. The cold air is still sitting in northern Canada. Once we (and the models) see what is really coming down by Saturday, then we'll have a better idea about temps. Doesn't look like anything remotely close to 2021 in terms of the travel issues. Just 2-3 days of cold then it warms back up. If I lived up north I'd be making sure my pipes are insulated before all pipe insulation is gone. May already be too late.

[Ralph's Weather]

The icing appears most likely to be centered on a Palestine to Texarkana line where >0.10" of ice is very possible Sunday into Monday. With anyone in a Abilene to Paris to Lufkin to Austin box seeing some icing. Some snow is also possible Sunday night into Monday especially near the Red River, but amounts will be light.

[Gotwood]

00Z EC says "No snow for you!" in the D-FW area.

http://wxman57.com/images/ECSnow00ZJan10.JPG

However, it does say "have some freezing rain" in the D-FW area:

http://wxman57.com/images/ECZR00ZJan10.JPG

Measurable QPF is mainly confined to areas east of 35. Far NE Texas, Arky, and Eastern OK are the places to be.

There is still too much variability in the models to have any confidence in temps or precip next week. The cold air is still sitting in northern Canada. Once we (and the models) see what is really coming down by Saturday, then we'll have a better idea about temps. Doesn't look like anything remotely close to 2021 in terms of the travel issues. Just 2-3 days of cold then it warms back up. If I lived up north I'd be making sure my pipes are insulated before all pipe insulation is gone. May already be too late.

I was reading through the 2021 thread and was laughing at people saying winter cancel just 3 days before the arctic air hit. I appreciate your posts.

[Gotwood]

The icing appears most likely to be centered on a Palestine to Texarkana line where >0.10" of ice is very possible Sunday into Monday. With anyone in an Abilene to Paris to Lufkin to Austin box seeing some icing. Some snow is also possible Sunday night into Monday especially near the Red River, but amounts will be light.

I’m hoping that trends further west guess we will find out in a few days.

[Ralph's Weather]

The icing appears most likely to be centered on a Palestine to Texarkana line where >0.10" of ice is very possible Sunday into Monday. With anyone in an Abilene to Paris to Lufkin to Austin box seeing some icing. Some snow is also possible Sunday night into Monday especially near the Red River, but amounts will be light.

I’m hoping that trends further west guess we will find out in a few days.

Further west and have the 850mb front a touch further south to lessen the freezing rain threat. I am hopeful that it is more sleet than freezing rain but determining that is impossible until this weekend and even then is tricky.

[rwfromkansas]

Weird temps overnight. Got down to 29 at 3 am and then it warmed all night.

Warm front?

[Gotwood]

Weird temps overnight. Got down to 29 at 3 am and then it warmed all night.

Warm front?

Winds started coming in from the south again. Same thing that’s supposedly going to happen Saturday.

[Ralph's Weather]

Weird temps overnight. Got down to 29 at 3 am and then it warmed all night.

Warm front?

We are now on the backside of the surface high so have return flow. Winds flipped around that time.

[Brent]

I'm still feeling pretty good about Sunday here(with caution because it's day 4) but Friday trending into Kansas again I don't understand haven't they had enough snow this is definitely their winter so far

[Wthrfan]

I'm still feeling pretty good about Sunday here(with caution because it's day 4) but Friday trending into Kansas again I don't understand haven't they had enough snow this is definitely their winter so far

Hoping for some snow in the OKC area. Aaron Tuttle is pretty bullish on snow for OKC and thinks Tulsa is going to get dumped on pretty good.

[Portastorm]

00Z EC says "No snow for you!" in the D-FW area.

http://wxman57.com/images/ECSnow00ZJan10.JPG

However, it does say "have some freezing rain" in the D-FW area:

http://wxman57.com/images/ECZR00ZJan10.JPG

Measurable QPF is mainly confined to areas east of 35. Far NE Texas, Arky, and Eastern OK are the places to be.

There is still too much variability in the models to have any confidence in temps or precip next week. The cold air is still sitting in northern Canada. Once we (and the models) see what is really coming down by Saturday, then we'll have a better idea about temps. Doesn't look like anything remotely close to 2021 in terms of the travel issues. Just 2-3 days of cold then it warms back up. If I lived up north I'd be making sure my pipes are insulated before all pipe insulation is gone. May already be too late.

In my unsolicited opinion, if you want to save one post that will be helpful for you as we deliberate, sometimes painfully, on every model run ... save this one above! Wxman57 enjoys the banter with us winter weather lovers but he's also a damn good meteorologist and if something is really coming ... he'll be on board. And he will let us know. When you see 57 bullish about Arctic air and wintry precip ... lock it in!

[bubba hotep]

Some interesting changes on the 06z Euro with the s/w shifting SW and moving through NOCAL and a bit stronger than 00z. Also, the 06z EPS shows a pretty widespread winter wx event across Texas, with freezing rain across a wide portion of the state.

[rwfromkansas]

Ugh, not a good trend overnight. Heck, it says we will give central/S TX more than you. Lol.

Man, I wish I was still living in KS this year.

The past few years they have had a huge snow drought as well, but getting dumped on this year. This year will erase that drought for sure.

My hometown got a foot officially, which was 9 inches more than forecast. Saw pictures of some drifts almost to roofs by friends on FB.

[Ntxw]

Ugh, not a good trend overnight. Heck, it says we will give central/S TX more than you. Lol.

Man, I wish I was still living in KS this year.

The past few years they have had a huge snow drought as well, but getting dumped on this year. This year will erase that drought for sure.

My hometown got a foot officially, which was 9 inches more than forecast. Saw pictures of some drifts almost to roofs by friends on FB.

The initial forecast for this winter through the reputable agencies highlighted NE New Mexico, Western Kansas, SE Colorado and the Panhandles of TX/OK as the area most below normal and above precip. Ground zero for this winter.

[Portastorm]

Some interesting changes on the 06z Euro with the s/w shifting SW and moving through NOCAL and a bit stronger than 00z. Also, the 06z EPS shows a pretty widespread winter wx event across Texas, with freezing rain across a wide portion of the state.

Good sign as the EPS was trending drier over the state with the 0z run. Back and forth we go. Hopefully we can get this 6z suite to start a trend!