Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[BigB0882]

Interesting! I am going to get up bright and early to try and catch some flakes. This feels like it has the potential to be a surprise for some people, meaning maybe some accumulations when no one is expecting it. The 18z GFS map certainly agrees. If the temps were lower I would feel better but it seems we have a chance!

[MGC]

36 at 9pm here on the Miss Coast....DP 31. Frost on the cars, so if it snows it will stick on raised surfaces.....MGC

[Ivanhater]

Wintry mix starting to move into parts of Mississippi...Complex continuing to move SE and holding its own.

Currently 37 in Pensacola, 35 in Mobile.

[Stormcenter]

It's 33 degrees in Slidell, LA.

Lookout SE LA.

[Jag95]

Winter weather advisory pushed eastward into west central MS. Now calling for up to 1". Also added the word MODERATE. Could get a little interesting for somebody.

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO
9 AM CST WEDNESDAY.

LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID-MORNING ON WEDNESDAY...AS A FAST
MOVING STORM SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM ONE-HALF INCH TO ONE INCH
ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. SNOWFALL WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO HAVE PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA BY
MID-MORNING ON WEDNESDAY.

[MGC]

Down to 34 in Gulfport at 10pm, DP 29.......MGC

[Ivanhater]

Oddly enough, precip is increasing with this shortwave...Yellows starting to pop up in Louisiana. Oklahoma and Texas recieved more than models thought. Possibly the same for the deep south.

Magic mark of 32 at Mobile...36 at Pensacola

[Stormcenter]

Now down to 31 degrees in Slidell,LA.

[Lane]

I am no weather guru by any means, and this could fizzle out before it gets to me. But looks very interesting, was there supposed to be this much moister with the system? And how much if any is actually hitting the ground? It has to be dry, Ivan do you think the atmosphere will be moist enough?

[Ivanhater]

I am no weather guru by any means, and this could fizzle out before it gets to me. But looks very interesting, was there supposed to be this much moister with the system? And how much if any is actually hitting the ground? It has to be dry, Ivan do you think the atmosphere will be moist enough?

You are looking better. Louisiana and Mississippi are going to wake up for a surprise in the morning. Jackson NWS already upping accumulation for their area. It should start drying out the further east it goes but like I mentioned before, it already has had more precip than it was supposed to.

[Lane]

Does anyone think the Winter Weather Advisory will shift farther east? Like to Alabama I hope?

[DEEDEE911]

the winter advisory is one county above me do you think they will move it to my area and how much snow do you really think this little system will put out. I am in south west mississippi in franklin county

[Brent]

My attention is on the weekend... I don't expect much tonight/tomorrow other than a few flurries for most. But this wow, from Birmingham:

AFTER THE
FROPA...THE FUN WILL REALLY BEGIN WITH THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE...AND THE INBOUND ARCTIC AIRMASS.
THE GFS AND MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A MORE
SOUTHERN SOLUTION SUGGESTING THAT THE WRAP ARO...UND MOISTURE COULD
PRODUCE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA AND ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHEAST. THE
WIND GRADIENT WILL ALSO BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH WINDS AT AROUND
30 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 40 OR MORE. PROBABLY THE MOST
CRITICAL WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER 30S...IF THAT HIGH...AND LOWS WILL
LIKELY REACH HARD FREEZE CRITERIA. NOW MAY BE THE TIME TO BEGIN
THINKING ABOUT PROTECTING LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT WOULD BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO HARD FREEZE OR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TEENS.
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL HAVE THE
POSSIBILITY OF REACHING THE 0 MARK OR AT LEAST IN THE LOWER SINGLE
DIGITS WITH RESPECT TO WIND CHILLS.

[PTPatrick]

After clicking on lots of obs, it would appear most of what you see here is not hitting the ground. And indeed, this is exactly what the Jackson MS discussion hints at. No doubt it is wetter than models have shown, and the radar is looking impressive, but the bottom line is all that cold air in place east of Jackson MS is also DRY. Too dry for much of this to hit the ground. I wouldnt rule out flurries anywhere from South of a line from about Jackson MS to around Pensacola FL...BUT it most likely be flurries you have to squint to see. West of Jackson in the natchez area and even further into SW mississippi, if the system moistens up a bit more, I could see a quick half inch. I think the problem is that as this thing develops the "business" end of the system is going to end up in the gulf. I have spent many a night in south mississippi following green radars on freezing nights, and peeking out the window, only to wonder, "where is it"....I think this will end up being a lot like that for a lot of folks.

[Ivanhater]

While we watch this system tonight...00Z GFS is alarming as Brent mentioned. 00z GFS EVEN COLDER! Teens penetrating well into Florida and the Gulf coast. Wrap around snow showers as well.

[PTPatrick]

I noticed that too Ivan...I guess perhaps some gulf effect snow could be possible in night hours there overnight next monday. Seen crazier things! PS...this will be a seriously killing freeze for Florida if it pans out...maybe worse than earlier this year.

[BigB0882]

Ivan, you said there could be a surprise for LA/MS tomorrow morning. Is Baton Rouge included in that area or do you think this mostly further north? Temp seems to be dropping more quickly than thought and if there is moisture then a higher chance of saturating the column, right?

[Ivanhater]

Ivan, you said there could be a surprise for LA/MS tomorrow morning. Is Baton Rouge included in that area or do you think this mostly further north? Temp seems to be dropping more quickly than thought and if there is moisture then a higher chance of saturating the column, right?

I would defer to PTPatrick when it comes to winter wx. Being from P'cola, I am in no way versed in winter wx . I do think there will be flurries at Death Valley tonight.

[MGC]

I was just looking at the 0Z sounding from Slidell....some very dry air in the 800-900mb layer. So, initially the precipt will likely evaporate as it falls through this layer. However, I think once the column becomes saturated and cooled the precipt should reach the surface frozen.....MGC

[PTPatrick]

Ivan, you said there could be a surprise for LA/MS tomorrow morning. Is Baton Rouge included in that area or do you think this mostly further north? Temp seems to be dropping more quickly than thought and if there is moisture then a higher chance of saturating the column, right?

I would defer to PTPatrick when it comes to winter wx. Being from P'cola, I am in no way versed in winter wx . I do think there will be flurries at Death Valley tonight.

LOL Ivan...I am no expert. I just got tired of late nights squinting for snow flurries in the south and moved to Denver where I could see some real snow I just still follow things down there...I still think you guys have about as good a chance as you ever do for seeing some flurries, even in P'cola. I just hope they come after sunrise or nobody will see them.

To the person that asked about Baton Rouge...I think you could def see flurries in the morning too...

THIS IS NOT A FORECAST THOUGH, LOL, I am not a MET, just a Met school drop out.