Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[xironman]

Thanks guys for the laughs this morning. Now I'm going to go back to the PWC and see what kind of Arctic Outbreak I can stir up for later this month.

Watch this loop http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _Loop.html , if the PV migrates over the pole like that we could get a coast to coast torch.

[Ntxw]

Thanks guys for the laughs this morning. Now I'm going to go back to the PWC and see what kind of Arctic Outbreak I can stir up for later this month.

Watch this loop http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _Loop.html , if the PV migrates over the pole like that we could get a coast to coast torch.

I'm not seeing the PV heading to the pole. In fact quite the opposite, ridging up there and a -AO (sorta). The warmth looks due to the -PNA/Gulf of Alaska vortex and super cold is bottled just north of the border.



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[srainhoutx]

Keep an eye on the Bering Sea Ridge. The Euro is already suggesting by hour 216, it is rolling or folding S pushing those colder temps in Canada down across the Pacific NW and Western CONUS. There is a -NAO showing up as well. It won't take a lot to displace the mid country ridge and allow that cold air to spill S just beyond the Euro 10 day range...

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[xironman]

I'm not seeing the PV heading to the pole. In fact quite the opposite, ridging up there and a -AO (sorta). The warmth looks due to the -PNA/Gulf of Alaska vortex and super cold is bottled just north of the border.

Definitely ridging in the beginning, the -WPO that initial pushes the PV down (with the super cold air in the northern plains and CA). And I can agree with the -PNA being a player short term, check out the 850s in TX



I meant at the end of the loop say beyond ten days it starts to retrograde back.

[Texas Snowman]

@BigJoeBastardi tweet storm from a short while ago:

"10 days of wild wintery weather shaping up from Portland Ore to Portland Maine south to around I70.Backs off next 10, but back Feb 1 on."

"strat warm blooms Dec 15-Jan 5, sets up cold coming, but backed away ( so US warms Jan 20-30) new one starting now!" http://pic.twitter.com/8NRpCl8t

"Did post on WxBell on this. Center or warming over the pole or into Greenland leads to coldest US temps 2-3 weeks later."

-----

"Models will miss low level cold air that shows up. MSP for instance with forecasted Tue pm temps near 20 will bust by at least 10."

"I have seen this dozens of time as the stability of true arctic air is not handled by models. Watch the example in the n plains Tue."

"That being said, the in and out in the US is nothing compared to what may be a legendary cold period for western Canada. Alaskan cold on way."

[xironman]

Keep an eye on the Bering Sea Ridge. The Euro is already suggesting by hour 216, it is rolling or folding S pushing those colder temps in Canada down across the Pacific NW and Western CONUS. There is a -NAO showing up as well. It won't take a lot to displace the mid country ridge and allow that cold air to spill S just beyond the Euro 10 day range...

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

Do you think so? I had thought that the ridge was headed the other way (0z the latest I could get ensembles for)

[Rgv20]

I would like it to be colder but hey at least is going to be cool.

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
153 PM CST WED JAN 11 2012

TXZ248>257-120115-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ZAPATA...HEBBRONVILLE...FALFURRIAS...
SARITA...RIO GRANDE CITY...ROMA...MCALLEN...EDINBURG...PHARR...
MISSION...WESLACO...RAYMONDVILLE...BROWNSVILLE...HARLINGEN...
PORT MANSFIELD...PORT ISABEL...SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...
LAGUNA HEIGHTS...LAGUNA VISTA
153 PM CST WED JAN 11 2012

...SHARP COLD FRONT TO BRING STRONG NORTH WINDS EARLY THURSDAY...

A COLD FRONT OF CANADIAN ORIGIN IS MOVING RAPIDLY SOUTH THROUGH
NORTHWESTERN TEXAS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE
RACING SOUTH MOVING PASS THE RIO GRANDE RIVER NEAR BROWNSVILLE
AROUND 5 AM THURSDAY. A SHARP INCREASE IN NORTH WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS
UP TO 40 MPH. THESE STRONG WINDS ARE TO PEAK AROUND MID MORNING
THEN BEGIN TO RELAX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT STRONGER GUSTS TO 30
MPH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF HIGHWAY 281. TRASH CANS...LOOSE OBJECTS AND ANY REMAINING
CHRISTMAS DECORATIONS MAY EASILY BE BLOWN ABOUT AS THE STRONG
WINDS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL STEADILY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THURSDAY MORNING
LOWS APPROACHING 40 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AND NEAR
50 DEGREES IN MID TO LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WIND CHILL VALUES
THROUGH THE MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 50
DEGREES. TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT REMAIN
RATHER COOL ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
TEMPERATURES THEN PLUMMET THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY MORNING APPROACHING FREEZING OVER THE OPEN RANGE LAND IN
ZAPATA...JIM HOGG...BROOKS AND KENEDY COUNTIES. NO FREEZE WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME BUT COULD BE ISSUED ONCE THE CANADIAN
AIR MASS SETTLES OVER THE REGION. IT IS NOT TOO EARLY TO PROTECT
TENDER VEGETATION AND BEGIN PREPARATION FOR LIGHT FREEZING
CONDITIONS FRIDAY MORNING.

THERE WILL ALSO BE AN ENHANCED RISK IN FIRE DANGER THURSDAY. THE
STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS IN WAKE OF
THE FRONT AND THE CONTINUED DROUGHT STRICKEN VEGETATION. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8AM TO 4 PM FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS WITH EXCEPTION OF ZAPATA COUNTY.

[Portastorm]

I, for one, am looking forward to the Canadian air tomorrow. It's 75 degrees here in AUS at 3 p.m. It's January 11th for crying out loud!! We'll have plenty of time to do 75 degrees in March and April.

I hope you're happy and out riding your bike, wxman57! Harumpf!

[Ntxw]

Tireman4's "Worst summer ever...EVER" is extending into January! For now anyway. Hey I bet wxman has been keeping track of his days getting longer! A month from now it will be near what it is in late October!

[Texas Snowman]

I, for one, am looking forward to the Canadian air tomorrow. It's 75 degrees here in AUS at 3 p.m. It's January 11th for crying out loud!! We'll have plenty of time to do 75 degrees in March and April.

I hope you're happy and out riding your bike, wxman57! Harumpf!

Might be time to get the Storm2K Swat team together. You know, wait until the hottest day of the year, sneak into wxman57's backyard, and "borrow" his air conditioning unit.

Then he'll be begging for the chilly weather of winter!

Either that or we somehow convince the Mayans to wake up the next Krakatoa...it is 2012 after all!

[Texas Snowman]

As per the 0.0001% chance of snow flurries tonight in North Texas, odds might be a little higher north of the Red River:

"@RickMitchellWX: NW OK & the pnhndle getting some light snow now. A few flurries possible this evening in C & N OK."

[Texas Snowman]

A bona fide Blue Norther:

"@wfaaweathertoo: Cold front blasts through all of the Metroplex within a couple hours after sunset with wind chills in teens/20s by morning. -sm."

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Maybe the Red River Counties will see some flurries, daydreaming! However, the RR appears to be trending a little further south with the precip.

[ndale]

I, for one, am looking forward to the Canadian air tomorrow. It's 75 degrees here in AUS at 3 p.m. It's January 11th for crying out loud!! We'll have plenty of time to do 75 degrees in March and April.

I hope you're happy and out riding your bike, wxman57! Harumpf!

I am kinda on both sides here, like Wxman57 I only want it to be cold if it snows, otherwise if it is 85 degrees everyday that is ok with me, but like Portastorm I really want to see some snow before spring.

[MGC]

75 in Austin now.....90s in late March and April. Another hot Texas summer will be here soon.....MGC

[iorange55]

Man that wind is strong! I went for a walk and had to walk down a hill straight into the north wind. It was blowing me back, confirming my suspicion that I need some muscle milk.

[weatherdude1108]

My big Austin news:

Big gust of wind heard from inside the house just now! I think the front just came through.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

It's snowing in Norman, OKC, and Stillwater! Tulsa and Ada are next! Jealous!!

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

It's starting to get really chilly here in Richardson. The wind is brisk and the temp is dropping.

[Texas Snowman]

Interesting article:

This Winter's Weirdly Warm Weather Explained

http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2012/01/11/this-winters-weirdly-warm-weather-explained/