Texas Winter 2015-2016

[TheProfessor]

I'm going to be experiencing my first ever Alberta Clipper tomorrow! It will be accompanied with 40 mph wind gust so walking to class should be fun tomorrow.

[dhweather]

I'm going to be experiencing my first ever Alberta Clipper tomorrow! It will be accompanied with 40 mph wind gust so walking to class should be fun tomorrow.

Alberta? I thought you were in Ohio now.

[TheProfessor]

I'm going to be experiencing my first ever Alberta Clipper tomorrow! It will be accompanied with 40 mph wind gust so walking to class should be fun tomorrow.

Alberta? I thought you were in Ohio now.

lol they call them from where they originate such as, "Alberta Clipper" "Manitoba mauler" "Ontario scary-o" <- my favorite name, and the "Saskatchewan screamer"

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Can someone post the EURO's graphics for next week's snowstorm? Thanks!

http://i65.tinypic.com/110hgds.png

Thank you sir. The fact that typically these storms trend northward, i like it. Is it just rain for Houston or what?

[orangeblood]

Latest Euro Weeklies break the pattern towards late week 2 into 3, slamming the Pacific jet into the West Coast bringing much milder air into the pattern! Models have not been trending well in the longer term

[Ntxw]

I am in no way shape or form implying the same results as the surface (different air mass, moisture availability etc) but the little system Saturday sure does bring back fond memories at 5h

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Think Saturdays system can tap into the STJ? I remember that being a huge factor in that system. Started much earlier then anticipated and had much more moisture in it. Drove into that storm. Wasnt the most fun ive had driving!

[Ntxw]

Think Saturdays system can tap into the STJ? I remember that being a huge factor in that system. Started much earlier then anticipated and had much more moisture in it. Drove into that storm. Wasnt the most fun ive had driving!

STJ is very strong currently and will continue. It's stronger even than the 09-10 winter

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Think Saturdays system can tap into the STJ? I remember that being a huge factor in that system. Started much earlier then anticipated and had much more moisture in it. Drove into that storm. Wasnt the most fun ive had driving!

STJ is very strong currently and will continue. It's stronger even than the 09-10 winter

I like the look of it. very very similar.

[MississippiWx]

0z GFS seems to have a stronger Gulf low for this weekend's system. Could be potential for precip to be thrown back north and west into Texas as well as north into Louisiana and Mississippi with cold air involved. Hopefully, the Euro will start trending to this solution.

[Ntxw]

0Z Euro for Sat looks a lot like GFS and CMC. It's extremely marginal with surface temps 36-40F, 850s 0C to -3C. All of them are drier than I'd like but if we can sneak in a good STJ and a few degrees colder who knows. The 5h set up it's there with Feb 2010.

[Ntxw]

Snow late weekend for deep south Texas on euro is gone. It still has 5h vorticity though but is very dry and a little slow so the cold is gone as it comes in. But that's even further out.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

0Z Euro for Sat looks a lot like GFS and CMC. It's extremely marginal with surface temps 36-40F, 850s 0C to -3C. All of them are drier than I'd like but if we can sneak in a good STJ and a few degrees colder who knows. The 5h set up it's there with Feb 2010.

I would expect the STJ to moisten/cool things in the atmosphere a bit more than it expects so dont lose hope yet.


For the South Texas system.... Im decent at reading the 5h chart but im confused as to how it is dry. Is it the source air which is making it much drier? The STJ we arent sure about, models typically arent the best at predicting that, but its not as cold as before for sure. I love the track for Houston though, its rare that we get heights even that low down here so im not losing hope yet. Just need a bit more cold air. Not losing hope yet!

[stormlover2013]

lets just hope tomorrow and Thursday it shows this still then it will be real fun to watch, I think today is crucial to see if the models flip back to what it showed yesterday, thats GFS that is, EURO just not as cold...should be interesting

[Ntxw]

0Z Euro for Sat looks a lot like GFS and CMC. It's extremely marginal with surface temps 36-40F, 850s 0C to -3C. All of them are drier than I'd like but if we can sneak in a good STJ and a few degrees colder who knows. The 5h set up it's there with Feb 2010.

I would expect the STJ to moisten/cool things in the atmosphere a bit more than it expects so dont lose hope yet.


For the South Texas system.... Im decent at reading the 5h chart but im confused as to how it is dry. Is it the source air which is making it much drier? The STJ we arent sure about, models typically arent the best at predicting that, but its not as cold as before for sure. I love the track for Houston though, its rare that we get heights even that low down here so im not losing hope yet. Just need a bit more cold air. Not losing hope yet!

I'm actually optimistic about Saturday. Trend a little better and it could be significant for North Texas. Its very strong, there is incoming energy from the north behind it to neutral neg tilt. And GFS is digging south earlier into the southern rockies. As you said if STJ and a little colder is there, boom big snow event. 2010 had a similar 5h look. At the surface enough warm air advection for copious moisture while above just warm enough for snow. Thread the needle.

For S Texas I'd wait a little longer. Models have been weaker with surface features but they do "lose" stuff in the medium range lets see if it comes back.

[Ralph's Weather]

The set up for Saturday looks almost ideal for big snow potential across northern Texas. We have An Arctic intrusion followed by a vigorous shortwave with STJ support. As always it will be about timing. The following storm also has some potential but it looks weaker and may not have enough cold by the time it arrives.

[orangeblood]

0Z Euro for Sat looks a lot like GFS and CMC. It's extremely marginal with surface temps 36-40F, 850s 0C to -3C. All of them are drier than I'd like but if we can sneak in a good STJ and a few degrees colder who knows. The 5h set up it's there with Feb 2010.

I would expect the STJ to moisten/cool things in the atmosphere a bit more than it expects so dont lose hope yet.


For the South Texas system.... Im decent at reading the 5h chart but im confused as to how it is dry. Is it the source air which is making it much drier? The STJ we arent sure about, models typically arent the best at predicting that, but its not as cold as before for sure. I love the track for Houston though, its rare that we get heights even that low down here so im not losing hope yet. Just need a bit more cold air. Not losing hope yet!

I'm actually optimistic about Saturday. Trend a little better and it could be significant for North Texas. Its very strong, there is incoming energy from the north behind it to neutral neg tilt. And GFS is digging south earlier into the southern rockies. As you said if STJ and a little colder is there, boom big snow event. 2010 had a similar 5h look. At the surface enough warm air advection for copious moisture while above just warm enough for snow. Thread the needle.

For S Texas I'd wait a little longer. Models have been weaker with surface features but they do "lose" stuff in the medium range lets see if it comes back.

The big problem with comparing this to Feb 2010's system Ntxw is that in 2010, the system originated off the southern California coast bring copious amounts of Pacific moisture with it....this weekend's system is originating in the Pacific Northwest transversing the high mountain deserts of the Rockies. Just don't see this system having enough moisture to work with until it gets into southeast Texas, where its too warm for any frozen precip.

I'm actually a little more optimistic about Monday's event....if we can get the Pacific flow to slow down a little, it would allow those 2 shortwaves (that are currently separated on the models) to phase and did further into south Texas. Should know much more over the next few model runs!!!

[Ntxw]

Yeah it is further north originating. It can get better though if the models starts digging sooner into the southern Rockies and hook up with the STJ. If it was purely positively tilted as they were showing some days ago the dry as a bone. Im not saying its going to overrun like Feb 2010 for 24 hours. We could lay a few inches if timing is right and CAA behind it is good.

[Ntxw]

Take a look at the 12z GFS approaching 100 hours. This is what I was talking about, it's very close to a significant winter weather event in N Texas. This is how I would draw up a marginal map for an event. Surface temps in the 35-38 range and 850s are sufficiently cold. Cool the surface by a few degrees and this is how it snowed in Feb 2010.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Just based on forecasts that I've seen it appears that the moisture is there for Friday night into Saturday but it doesn't appear that the cold really is. I know it usually ends up being colder that models or forecasts show but I really don't know. I guess it's a waiting game.