Texas Winter 2016-2017

[Ntxw]

EPS and GEFS both suggest more ridging in and around Alaska throughout it's run. Meaning more cross polar flow could continue mid January.

As mentioned, we've established the NPO background state for the winter. It's the Aleutian/Alaska ridge.

[TexasF6]

I just looked at a super-ensemble, it paints snowfall across Central Texas including Austin around the 7th-9th. North of Wxman57 though. We need that line to the coast for his bike ride in the SNOW!!!!! Interesting note, the crazy Canadian paints ultra cold wx but no snow anywhere. There is a cold disturbance in the force, it's coming!!!

[Ntxw]

From the venerable Mike Ventrice

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/813370528446693376

[northjaxpro]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016122600/gfs_z500a_namer_42.png

That's about as pretty an upper air pattern one could script if you want Winter Weather in Texas.

Well, not only just for Texas. This type of upper air pattern, if the GFS verifies, would bring colder air back across much of the Central and Eastern CONUS. This is still out there long range, but we wait and see if Old Man Winter will come out of hibernation as we go into the first week of 2017.

[orangeblood]

Wow, it appears the entire North American Continent is about to go in the fridge!!!

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Well I have officially played my trump card against the heat miser and his thermostat...all of my patio plant, which get moved into the garage for the winter months, have been moved out to the driveway for some water and sunlight. That should help those artic models to verify.

[South Texas Storms]

12z Euro now looks similar to the GFS with the forecasted flow pattern early in January. It shows a strong cold front pushing southward across the state around January 5.

[TheAustinMan]

Euro 12z output today depicting a cold rush of air into the United States in 10 days. 850mb temperatures and anomalies depicted in the images below.





Source: TropicalTidbits

[orangeblood]

12z Euro now looks similar to the GFS with the forecasted flow pattern early in January. It shows a strong cold front pushing southward across the state around January 5.

Yep, King Euro caving to the the most consistent model lately, The American GFS

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Euro 12z output today depicting a cold rush of air into the United States in 10 days. 850mb temperatures and anomalies depicted in the images below.

http://i.imgur.com/rt6FfJt.png

http://i.imgur.com/WU07Wrd.png

Source: TropicalTidbits

Love it! Canadian, Euro and GFS all on board!

I'm bringing back the icy weather from the Great White North!

[Brent]

Euro has a little precip at DFW with temps below freezing around 240 hours

[JDawg512]

Ugh! Rain just to the east of Austin but it needs to develop along and west of I-35. I'll be so upset if we don't get any rain today.

[Brent]

FWD mentions the 10 day cold

Our next shot at wintertime cold might be around the January 5-8
time frame when extended guidance is hinting that the Arctic
Oscillation may turn sharply negative. This would allow an
intrusion of Arctic air into the Central/Southern Plains if it
pans out, but this is still pretty far into the forecast period.

[Portastorm]

Meanwhile, in real weather, Austin set new record highs today with 84 at KATT and 85 at KAUS. Wxman57 remains firmly in control

[Snowman67]

Meanwhile, in real weather, Austin set new record highs today with 84 at KATT and 85 at KAUS. Wxman57 remains firmly in control

He must pay at some point this winter!

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Meanwhile, in real weather, Austin set new record highs today with 84 at KATT and 85 at KAUS. Wxman57 remains firmly in control

Absolutely disgusting today! Stayed inside and worked on christmas decorations and a bottle of Woodford

[Yukon Cornelius]

Got to around 70 today. Although I despise warmth in winter I took advantage of it and cleaned out all of the chicken coops, redid one of my problematic water wells and moved around some round bales. Now that I've gotten all of that out of the way, time to bring in the cold!

[orangeblood]

GFS ENS much more aggressive with a storm system moving through southern plains after Arctic Air sets in late next week...

[Cpv17]

Is the GFS backing off on the cold? It appears so to me anyway. Maybe one of those situations where it shows it in the long range, then loses it, & gets it back inside a few days?

[ronyan]

Is the GFS backing off on the cold? It appears so to me anyway. Maybe one of those situations where it shows it in the long range, then loses it, & gets it back inside a few days?

Don't react to one model run, the 18z just isn't as cold as recent runs.