Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Sure wish those colder temps in slidell would shift west. I am sitting between 40 and 41. Hasn't dropp
ed in a while. Hopefully it is just temporary and with the moisture moving in it will fall some more. Going to be close though. Our weather Guy said best chance of seeing anything white floating through the air would be between 3 and 9 am. We shall see.

[BigB0882]

Yeah, the temp difference between Baton Rouge and Slidell is pretty shocking. 39 here in Baton Rouge and 31 and Slidell. That is a big difference for just about an hour away. If the moisture starts falling, which I think it is, hopefully it will do double duty and saturate the column plus bring down the temp. It was 36 degrees here an hour ago. I guess the cloud cover acted like a temporary blanket.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Now that you mentioned that bigb you are right. When I left the gym around 8:30 the temp gauge in my truck said 37 and now three hours later it is 41. Maybe due to clouds and a little southerly moisture flow out the gulf?

[Ivanhater]

00z GFS ensemble mean out...Very interesting for next weeks event

[hurley311]

What does that mean??? I am still a little confused when reading the maps.

[BigB0882]

Yeah, pls explain that map. LOL!

[Ivanhater]

Many of the GFS ensemble members have the storm for next week coming further south with widespread snow for the deep south. After that, MAJOR cold comes with strong wind. Blue line is the freeze line.

[vbhoutex]

What does that mean??? I am still a little confused when reading the maps.

Looks like a possibility of snow over much of the South to the coast on the 13th based on that model.

[Jag95]

Looks like a MAJOR storm for the TN Valley northward, lots of cold air, and wraparound snow to the coast. IF ony!

[Lane]

That is very impressive (fingers crossed). The models jumping all over the place remind me of last year. It seemed for about 10 weeks they jumped from something big to nothing as it came closer. But then one finally verified. Things may be against old man winter, but he is putting up a hell of fight.

[BigB0882]

Well I am off to bed. Going to set my alarm for about 4am and check the radars and temps to see if it is worth staying up for. Good luck!

[northjaxpro]

WOW! What an impressive GFS run late tonight. That is one powerful and dynamical storm system being depicted. This is not looking good down here in the Florida peninsula for early next week as the arctic air intrusion behind this next system appears to be significantly much colder than this current cold spell. If we get an additional snowpack across the TN Valley late this upcoming weekend as the GFS is indicating, no question the potential will be high for a historic record breaking arctic outbreak across the Deep South and Florida.

[dwsqos2]

Yuck! Oh well, as a heat miser I guess I can turn my attention to the potential for a warm up following the pointless arctic air. At least the day 10 Euro only has high 500 mb heights over Greenland as opposed to western Canada.

[JonathanBelles]

Extremely long AFD from Tallahassee this morning. They've added in a 10% chance of snow for all areas of their area turning to rain near the beach. The high today is 45 in Tallahassee, cool enough for frozen precip with the very dry air that we have. Looking like today will be a frozen virga type of day, but its the first chance of snow for Tally this season.

[BigB0882]

I don't think we saw any snow here in Baton Rouge. I got up about 4:30 and the temp was still 41. The radar showed all frozen stuff well to our East. I decided if anything it would just be a few flakes and went back to bed. Maybe next time!

[Lane]

The radar shows snow here, but nothing. Snow did reach the ground to the south and west of where I live.

[somethingfunny]

00z GFS ensemble mean out...Very interesting for next weeks event

I hope you saved that image and made it your wallpaper!

That is RIDICULOUS!!!!

[frigidice77]

Does it have snow for southern georgia? Lol and wont the temps feel like negative with that powerful wind. lol im so excited. Except i worried about florida.

[Ivanhater]

Florida officially received snow this winter

North Escambia county Florida received snow this morning just north of Pensacola.

[Ivanhater]

NWS Mobile/Pensacola AFD regarding next weeks system

VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON
SUNDAY WITH 40-45 KT 850 MB NW FLOW BRINGING 850 MB TEMPS POSSIBLY AS
LOW AS -10C OVER THE NORTHERN CWA. IN FACT...WOULD NOT BE AT ALL
SURPRISED TO SEE SUNDAY`S HIGHS REACHED VERY EARLY IN THE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES STEADILY DROPPING THROUGH THE DAY...LIKELY INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 30S BY LATE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...WINDS COULD BE STRONG
WITH THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION HELPING TO TRANSPORT DOWN A HIGH
PERCENTAGE OF THE 30-40 KT FORECAST TO BE PRESENT IN THE MIXED LAYER.
GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

THE GFS IS NOT AS COLD AS COMPARED TO THE ECMWF/GEM/GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN FOR EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS BEING MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER GUIDANCE
WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE INHERITED EXTENDED FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK MAY NEED TO BE
LOWERED EVEN FURTHER IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS IF THE NON OPERATIONAL
GFS GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT. A HARD FREEZE IS POSSIBLE MON/TUE
MORN.