Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Brent]

Does look colder for Christmas but should be dry

Models are still struggling

[cheezyWXguy]

Does look colder for Christmas but should be dry

Models are still struggling

Agreed. With the models now within 7 days of the event, it seems we have reached that dreaded mid-range where they seem to lose consistency. It was easy to get hyped up over this event before, with 6 days straight of model runs showing a major storm in one form or another, but it seems that rule really will hold true that we probably won't know exactly what will happen until just a couple of days before it starts.

[bubba hotep]

Bit of a cold dump on the 12z Euro (low 20s for DFW) but winter wx looks minimal for Texas as the main trough is positive and doesn't really dig that deep. Sad turn of events. Still tend to favor the ensembles but the Euro is getting into the range that it should start to lock in on a solution here pretty soon. Plenty of chances for things to trend back in our favor over the next couple of days... I guess.

[cheezyWXguy]

Bit of a cold dump on the 12z Euro (low 20s for DFW) but winter wx looks minimal for Texas as the main trough is positive and doesn't really dig that deep. Sad turn of events. Still tend to favor the ensembles but the Euro is getting into the range that it should start to lock in on a solution here pretty soon. Plenty of chances for things to trend back in our favor over the next couple of days... I guess.

I think we all got a little excited with yesterday's 12z Euro, but I think it would also be jumping the gun to assume that the Euro is latching onto a solution 6-7 days out when the storm hasnt even made it onshore yet. It does decrease my confidence in the storm when model runs are backing off extremity as we near the event, but it a couple of dry runs doesn't seem weighty enough to cancel out 6 days of rather extreme output.

With that being said, how plausible is the Euro? With such a heavy southward push of cold air, it seems odd that the upper low would dig SE instead of just south. Hell, the 6z GFS pushed off the west coast of CA. Does this have to do with the development, or lack thereof, of the typhoon in the WPAC?

[Brent]

I'm just hoping this great pattern doesn't end with cold and dry i agree that were probably at that range where models like to lose it but im definitely watching to see if the other support begins to decrease

[Lagreeneyes03]

I'm just hoping this great pattern doesn't end with cold and dry i agree that were probably at that range where models like to lose it but im definitely watching to see if the other support begins to decrease

I know there have been phantom storms that last a run or two in the extended ranges, but what is the historical data on this kind of thing where for so many days there is model consensus and then it just fizzles?

[losf1981]

First post. Have enjoyed the wealth of information on this site so thanks to all of your with the knowledge for sharing.

Live in Wichita Falls and like a lot of you across the state have had warm christmases the last couple of years and it just has been a bummer.

Was hoping for cold, white Christmas along the river but it sounds like those chances are dwindling.

Thanks again to all. Will definitely stick around after winter.

[Texas Snow]

Welcome.

I don't think they are dwindling, I just think we were all hoping the Euro would flop back this time and it didn't. So now we wait, again. There has not been anything that says the GFS is moving to the Euro yet or the other way around, I just think we all wanted to see a sign of any movement towards a low developing in the SW US. Since it didn't if feels like a bummer but the GFS is still very bullish, so again we wait, this time to make sure the GFS stays with the storm.

[iorange55]

Yeah, I’m not discouraged. Euro has not been consistent with this pattern for the past few days. GFS, for the most part, has been...so I’ll trust it more at this point.

[JayDT]

Am i right in my thinking that the GFS has overall been the more consistent model lately, and the Euro has been more all over the place??

[Brent]

Am i right in my thinking that the GFS has overall been the more consistent model lately, and the Euro has been more all over the place??

I certainly agree with that at least the gfs has had a pretty consistent storm the euro went fron historic to nothing in one run

[cheezyWXguy]

I just combed through a lot of the posts from the days leading up to the December 2013 ice storm in North Texas. A lot of similarities in how well the models performed. 3 days before the event, comments were being made about how a run of the GFS did not even show a 24 hour period of below freezing temps in DFW. Precip type, amount, and southern extent were all in question until the last minute, and I have little doubt that this storm will be any different.

[JayDT]

Am i right in my thinking that the GFS has overall been the more consistent model lately, and the Euro has been more all over the place??

I certainly agree with that at least the gfs has had a pretty consistent storm the euro went fron historic to nothing in one run

Exactly! The inconsistency is kinda crazy at this point which is why i’m kinda trusting the GFS more as of right now... & Also i’m obviously rooting more for the GFS right now too

[Ntxw]

I just combed through a lot of the posts from the days leading up to the December 2013 ice storm in North Texas. A lot of similarities in how well the models performed. 3 days before the event, comments were being made about how a run of the GFS did not even show a 24 hour period of below freezing temps in DFW. Precip type, amount, and southern extent were all in question until the last minute, and I have little doubt that this storm will be any different.

It's the case with most storms if you go back. As long as we still have a storm modeled and cold air on the way, there's no need to panic one way or the other until we are about 3 days out. Now if the ensembles start shifting away then it would be cause for concern. Don't think this is a phantom storm, it's a matter of where and how much.

[stormlover2013]

Can’t trust any model right now, that all have been inconsistent, wed we will get a good grasp

[bubba hotep]

12z Euro EPS from today vs 12z yesterday tells the tale and it's not a happy one.

Yesterday:



Today



This D7 timeframe is when the last couple of big model systems fell apart. Maybe things flip back at 00z on the EPS. The 18z GFS will be telling...

[JDawg512]

Several pages since last night! Gonna have to back track to catch up. Been outside enjoying this picture perfect day.

[weatherdude1108]

Several pages since last night! Gonna have to back track to catch up. Been outside enjoying this picture perfect day.

Been light to moderate raining here for 2 to 3 hours. 49 degrees. Settling the cedar pollens for now. Just what the doc. ordered.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

The EPS from today would definitely have us in the icebox after Christmas given that Central Canada has widespread -30s.

If I can’t have ice or snow in Montgomery County, I’d rather we just get real cold.

[cheezyWXguy]

12z Euro EPS from today vs 12z yesterday tells the tale and it's not a happy one.

Yesterday:

[img]http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017121512/noram/eps_z500a_noram_192.png

Today

[img]http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017121612/noram/eps_z500a_noram_168.png

This D7 timeframe is when the last couple of big model systems fell apart. Maybe things flip back at 00z on the EPS. The 18z GFS will be telling...

Will it though? Even if it shows something we all like, it probably still won’t have a full grasp on how the pattern will evolve. These southern stream ULLs are something the models have been notoriously bad at handling in the past. Regardless of how the event eventually pans out I have a feeling we’ll be looking back on these days as a case study for how the model consensus evolves in future situations. I see now why wxman57 has been saying that he won’t be putting any stock in the models over the next few days