Texas Winter 2019-2020

[Haris]

This should be called the Dallas winter thread.

[Cerlin]

This should be called the Dallas winter thread.

Hey, I wouldn’t mind!! (just kidding)

[orangeblood]

This should be called the Dallas winter thread.

Haha It’s been almost half a decade for most metroplexers...it’s time for the snow hole to fill in!!!

[Jarodm12]

If we get anything like the nam icon and gfs are predicting roads will surely be closed, this is getting exciting , winter wonder land here we come!

[Jarodm12]

Why arent there more people talking when we are within 3 days of the event, and many models are predicting what would be a major winter storm across much of norrhern texas? Am I missing something?

[Ralph's Weather]

So, we’re 3-4 days out and the GFS is showing 14 inches for parts of the metroplex and the Euro is showing practically nothing...I’m used to the models disagreeing, especially these two, but I’ve never seen it differ so much.

The Euro has been bad with winter storms in the past couple years.

[Ntxw]

Why arent there more people talking when we are within 3 days of the event, and many models are predicting what would be a major winter storm across much of norrhern texas? Am I missing something?

It will pick up soon. Once winter storm watches goes up then it gets real.

[bubba hotep]

12z GEFS matches up with the 06z Euro & EPS making the 12z GFS a major outlier.

[somethingfunny]

Why arent there more people talking when we are within 3 days of the event, and many models are predicting what would be a major winter storm across much of norrhern texas? Am I missing something?

The Euro and Canadian aren't being bullish and that has a lot of us hesitant to go all in. I'm definitely watching

[EnnisTx]

Why arent there more people talking when we are within 3 days of the event, and many models are predicting what would be a major winter storm across much of norrhern texas? Am I missing something?

The Euro and Canadian aren't being bullish and that has a lot of us hesitant to go all in. I'm definitely watching

I'm reluctant to go all in on any of the models until I open the door and the S××× is hitting the fan.

[Brent]

Why arent there more people talking when we are within 3 days of the event, and many models are predicting what would be a major winter storm across much of norrhern texas? Am I missing something?

The Euro and Canadian aren't being bullish and that has a lot of us hesitant to go all in. I'm definitely watching

This

Say what you want about the Euro but it's still a very well respected model in professional circles

And hasn't the CMC been outscoring the GFS? Pretty sure that was posted here last week

Don't get me wrong I would love nothing more than for the snowy GFS maps to verify but we have to be a bit realistic here and honestly if anything since last night there's been a trend towards the Euro/CMC

[orangeblood]

12z GEFS matches up with the 06z Euro & EPS making the 12z GFS a major outlier.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/total_snow_10to1/1580644800/1581195600-C9ri9TVFGLk.png

QPF shield isn't too drastically different though, it's the snowfall accumulation maps that are drastic. The temp profile is making these maps look confusing and it's still way too early to pin down temp forecasts. QPF ranges from .25 to .75 inch on almost all models after midnight Tuesday when DFW looks like to be reaching freezing...qpf is what I worry most about in these setups as temps are almost always 2-3 deg F too high in this range (particularly on the Euro model) and lack of qpf doesn't appear to be a problem in this instance. It looks like qpf will be there for accumulations - will it be freezing rain, sleet or snow is the major ? mark. Obviously, the further NW you are in North Texas the better your chances of seeing significant accumulations.

[Jarodm12]

Why arent there more people talking when we are within 3 days of the event, and many models are predicting what would be a major winter storm across much of norrhern texas? Am I missing something?

The Euro and Canadian aren't being bullish and that has a lot of us hesitant to go all in. I'm definitely watching

This

Say what you want about the Euro but it's still a very well respected model in professional circles

And hasn't the CMC been outscoring the GFS? Pretty sure that was posted here last week

Don't get me wrong I would love nothing more than for the snowy GFS maps to verify but we have to be a bit realistic here and honestly if anything since last night there's been a trend towards the Euro/CMC

Im in southern Oklahoma the canadian is producing an ice storm for me, and has me below freezing all day in durant. I guess I hear what you're saying but the gfs isnt the only model producing these totals, the nam is as well, the issue here is cold air, do you really believe it will be 10 degees too warm? The nam is even colder than the Canadian, I don't know man, I guess let's wait for the euro and the 18z models, unless the nam suddenly warms us up this looks pretty promising

[bubba hotep]

When comparing the 00z Euro to the 12z GFS, one thing of note is that the Euro detaches the trough from the northern stream allowing the SE ridge to hold strong. This also allows for a longer duration of WAA out in front of the system. The timing on this is always tricky and our best systems usually have a front running northern stream system that sends down a batch of cold air. In this setup, we probably either need things to trend towards the GFS or for our system to completely cutoff and come across Texas as a bowling ball. The Euro setup would tend to favor a deep warm layer aloft, even if we could get the surface to freezing in DFW.

12z GFS



00z Euro



There isn't a huge difference in between the two but enough to shift the favored area for snow by 100s of miles.

[Ntxw]

When comparing the 00z Euro to the 12z GFS, one thing of note is that the Euro detaches the trough from the northern stream allowing the SE ridge to hold strong. This also allows for a longer duration of WAA out in front of the system. The timing on this is always tricky and our best systems usually have a front running northern stream system that sends down a batch of cold air. In this setup, we probably either need things to trend towards the GFS or for our system to completely cutoff and come across Texas as a bowling ball. The Euro setup would tend to favor a deep warm layer aloft, even if we could get the surface to freezing in DFW.

12z GFS

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020020212/gfs_z500aNorm_namer_11.png

00z Euro

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2020020200/ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_4.png

There isn't a huge difference in between the two but enough to shift the favored area for snow by 100s of miles.

If you account for biases, the slower Euro often has this issue. That creates a longer duration of WAA. I still believe something in between. If the 500mb heights are as low as it is showing, I am fully expecting it to bust quite a bit for temperatures. GFS did beat the Euro short term in this regard a few weeks ago (didn't see a flake where euro had it way northwest in the panhandles and instead was along I-20.

Going below 540dm with 850s well below 0C to me translates to 20s realistically (if the heights verified) than above freezing. 550s you might be on fence but this is way lower.

[Brent]

The Euro and Canadian aren't being bullish and that has a lot of us hesitant to go all in. I'm definitely watching

This

Say what you want about the Euro but it's still a very well respected model in professional circles

And hasn't the CMC been outscoring the GFS? Pretty sure that was posted here last week

Don't get me wrong I would love nothing more than for the snowy GFS maps to verify but we have to be a bit realistic here and honestly if anything since last night there's been a trend towards the Euro/CMC

Im in southern Oklahoma the canadian is producing an ice storm for me, and has me below freezing all day in durant. I guess I hear what you're saying but the gfs isnt the only model producing these totals, the nam is as well, the issue here is cold air, do you really believe it will be 10 degees too warm? The nam is even colder than the Canadian, I don't know man, I guess let's wait for the euro and the 18z models, unless the nam suddenly warms us up this looks pretty promising

I'm talking more about DFW honestly. I don't doubt there will be a winter storm to the NW and up in Oklahoma

[rendihess]

Hello! Northwest of DFW as in Flower Mound or way more north and west?

12z GEFS matches up with the 06z Euro & EPS making the 12z GFS a major outlier.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/total_snow_10to1/1580644800/1581195600-C9ri9TVFGLk.png

QPF shield isn't too drastically different though, it's the snowfall accumulation maps that are drastic. The temp profile is making these maps look confusing and it's still way too early to pin down temp forecasts. QPF ranges from .25 to .75 inch on almost all models after midnight Tuesday when DFW looks like to be reaching freezing...qpf is what I worry most about in these setups as temps are almost always 2-3 deg F too high in this range (particularly on the Euro model) and lack of qpf doesn't appear to be a problem in this instance. It looks like qpf will be there for accumulations - will it be freezing rain, sleet or snow is the major ? mark. Obviously, the further NW you are in North Texas the better your chances of seeing significant accumulations.

[Brent]

12z Euro yes I know it's bad and wrong

(I hope it is actually )

[gpsnowman]

12z Euro yes I know it's bad and wrong

(I hope it is actually )

https://i.ibb.co/phKHvLc/sn10-acc-us-sc-8.png

This actually looks like a more southeastern shift of the snow line from previous Euro runs, ever so slightly. I could be wrong though.

[orangeblood]

12z Euro yes I know it's bad and wrong

(I hope it is actually )

https://i.ibb.co/phKHvLc/sn10-acc-us-sc-8.png

It’s going towards the GFS with the convective look of the initial wave....just not seeing snow at this time. Way more DFW qpf after early Wednesday morning than prior runs, good sign! Also, 2-3 deg F colder