Texas Winter 2013-2014

[somethingfunny]

Great Arctic Outbreak of 1899... lets start talking about it.

Austin, Texas: −1 °F (−18 °C)
Dallas, Texas: −8 °F (−22 °C)(Feb 12 1899 was the coldest temperature reading in Dallas history by six degrees in more than 115 years of weather records)
San Antonio, Texas: +4 °F (−15°C)

No, let's not, it's the equivalent of the F-word. By the way Dallas got down to -10 F in 1899, the weather station office was in Ft Worth and it "only" recorded -8. In case you doubt:

http://img823.imageshack.us/img823/5855/pumh.jpg

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This is really incredible to read! Thanks for finding and posting it

[southerngale]

Hey guys... I haven't had time to read as much as I'd like. How cold are we possibly looking at for Southeast Texas? And does it look like there will be any frozen precip?

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[BigB0882]

Hey guys... I haven't had time to read as much as I'd like. How cold are we possibly looking at for Southeast Texas? And does it look like there will be any frozen precip?

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Here is the GFS 18z output for Beaumont. Beware, though, the 18z was A LOT warmer than the previous 12z run and is much warmer than the Ensembles.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sampl ... ?text=KBPT

The previous run was showing highs in the 30s and barely, if at all, above freezing for quite a time. The expected timing would be right before Christmas and last at least until the end of the forecast period, according to most models.

[Rgv20]

0zGFS 500mb Pattern Forecast for next weekend still calls for a healthy looking Arctic outbreak..

[orangeblood]

Watch the Polar Vortex, this will dictate how cold this outbreak really gets. Will it make a trek into the Lower 48 like the European is depicting or stay closer to Hudson Bay as per GFS ? I believe it's safe to say it's going to get very very cold, how cold will more than likely depend on the depth and location of the PV

[cheezyWXguy]

So when do you all think we'll get an idea on how much precipitation will be associated with this event?

[weatherdude1108]

The EWX discussion at 3:46am said, "IT IS INTERESTING TO
NOTE HOW THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO SHOW AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A
PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR MORE ARCTIC AIR TO MOVE IN LATE NEXT WEEK."

"LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST. SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN
INCREASE IN SURFACE RIDGING AND DECREASING WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT. A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS LIKELY TO REMAIN INTACT ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE IN KEEPING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WE/LL SIDE WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF AND
KEEP A SLOW WARMING TREND IN THE FORECAST. IT IS INTERESTING TO
NOTE HOW THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO SHOW AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A
PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR MORE ARCTIC AIR TO MOVE IN LATE NEXT WEEK."

[Ntxw]

Lets talk about what we do know. Christmas week there will be very cold air moving into the country, colder than what we just saw. That is the very least that could happen. Everyone knows that when you have an arctic attack almost always there is a big winter storm threat when it comes through, and right now there is a system that will head offshore from the west coast. It will kick out and merge with the flow later next week as the STJ is active to the south of Hawaii into Texas. I hope that answers cheezyWxguy's question. We will know in better detail who will see what about 3-5 days before it happens and my hunch is frozen precip will make it's way down near I-10 again.

Christmas week is a busy week in that people are moving around and lots of things are going on for the Holidays. It should be known that something will occur weather wise and it's good to plan accordingly. Much of the US is already locked in cold with the exception of Florida and adjacent regions. The nature of these type of seasons is that the cold just gets colder once it's already in place if the pattern allows and cold air remains over North America which it seems so at this point.





Wxman57 will be needing lots of firewood, heated blankets, hot tubs, anything warm as gifts this Christmas.

Disclaimer: As a reminder do not get lost in games with the operational guidance. Follow the ensembles until we get into the medium range as they have proven better skill until the pieces get moving.

[Ntxw]

Btw I was jogging this morning and the pond at the park is frozen, there is thin layer of ice except where the fountain comes out. I will post the pictures after work, will we see more frozen ponds, lakes, and others in the coming weeks?

[wxman57]

I like last evening's GFS run a lot better for Christmas - a high in the mid 60s vs. mid 20s. Unfortunately, I don't think it'll turn out to be a good forecast:

[northjaxpro]

Stay warm folks. So far Old Man Winter is really making up for last year in bringing some frigid weather down across your region in Texas. Also, from the looks of the long range models leading into Christmas, the potential is there that some awfully frigid air may be coming your way again.

So far, I am one of the fortunate souls living here in this area being protected from the cold by the persistent Ridge over the FL peninusula. No signs of the AO or NAO tanking for now. Ntxw, we will see how things shake down in the coming weeks. May see some cold here maybe by the start of January.

[ndale]

I like last evening's GFS run a lot better for Christmas - a high in the mid 60s vs. mid 20s. Unfortunately, I don't think it'll turn out to be a good forecast:

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/iahgfsx0zdec12.gif

Wxman57 I have never seen you so pessimistic about a cold forecast, has your coworker there convinced you the arctic is moving south?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

People are worried about the amount of moisture with this system but if history says anything, whenever we have a large system like this come down, the warm air ahead of the front rising over the cold air dome at the surface will produce at least something. Typically this happens. I think in '96 this didnt happen but many other big arctic blasts it did.

[somethingfunny]

I'm surprised that the ULL tomorrow and Saturday won't be producing any wintry precip for us. Normally with a series of reinforcing cold fronts, plus a ULL crossing the state in December... it'd be a perfect setup.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I like last evening's GFS run a lot better for Christmas - a high in the mid 60s vs. mid 20s. Unfortunately, I don't think it'll turn out to be a good forecast:

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/iahgfsx0zdec12.gif

Wxman57 I have never seen you so pessimistic about a cold forecast, has your coworker there convinced you the arctic is moving south?

The trend is your friend and wxman57 is fully aware of that and the teleconnections we see happening up in the Pac.

[wxman57]

Note to all:

I just received word back from WeatherBell regarding posting of their model graphics. They said it is OK to re-post any images that have been tweeted by JB or Ryan Maue. However, posting images taken directly from their Premium website would violate their terms & conditions.

[wxman57]

The trend is your friend and wxman57 is fully aware of that and the teleconnections we see happening up in the Pac.

Yes, as much as I'd like to be able to wish the cold away, I'm afraid it is coming. It won't be long before homes along Galveston Bay see something like the video below:

http://www.realfarmacy.com/a-must-see-who-knew-nature-could-do-this/

[Tireman4]

The trend is your friend and wxman57 is fully aware of that and the teleconnections we see happening up in the Pac.

Yes, as much as I'd like to be able to wish the cold away, I'm afraid it is coming. It won't be long before homes along Galveston Bay see something like the video below:

http://www.realfarmacy.com/a-must-see-who-knew-nature-could-do-this/

Oh my gosh. That would be SOO cool. This one (as you quoted awhile back in the KHOU Weatheboard) "Is gonna hurt".

[weatherdude1108]

The trend is your friend and wxman57 is fully aware of that and the teleconnections we see happening up in the Pac.

Yes, as much as I'd like to be able to wish the cold away, I'm afraid it is coming. It won't be long before homes along Galveston Bay see something like the video below:

http://www.realfarmacy.com/a-must-see-who-knew-nature-could-do-this/

Oh my gosh. That would be SOO cool. This one (as you quoted awhile back in the KHOU Weatheboard) "Is gonna hurt".

WOW! That is wild stuff!

[gboudx]

You might want to NSFW that video. The girl gets carried away and drops a few inappropriate words.