Texas Winter 2018-2019

[EnnisTx]

Going back on the Euro run today, late in the run the model is teeing up the ball for maybe another cold front and system. System looks weak now but the trend this year is for them to make more noise in the medium range (then disappoint us ) and the model also shows 1047mb HP after pooling some cold air in NW Canada.

Oh stop it..... half the people on this thread are already on Xanax...

[Ntxw]

Going back on the Euro run today, late in the run the model is teeing up the ball for maybe another cold front and system. System looks weak now but the trend this year is for them to make more noise in the medium range (then disappoint us ) and the model also shows 1047mb HP after pooling some cold air in NW Canada.

Oh stop it..... half the people on this thread are already on Xanax...

It's the seasonal trend! Persistent SW ULL. There have been many, quite a few have hooked up to the central plains, some have come out and given us grief but the message is the same they keep coming.

The Euro ensembles in the very long range shows more of Aleutian low systems diving south along the west coast and pinwheeling through the Southern Rockies.

[EnnisTx]

Currently 33 at Fort Worth Meacham Field...

[spencer817]

Just asked Rick Mitchell, he said temps are behaving as expected. Doesn't seem encouraging to me.

[SnowintheFalls]

Wichita County is now under a Winter Weather Advisory.

[SouthernMet]

Graham, Breckenridge, and Jacksboro are all down to 28 already.

[rwfromkansas]

Just asked Rick Mitchell, he said temps are behaving as expected. Doesn't seem encouraging to me.

I doubt that. My temps are at least two degrees cooler so far than every forecast I can find for this hour.

That said, for any icing, it’s got to be a bigger bust than that.

[bubba hotep]

DFW is running as cold as the coldest 15z SREF member and the colder members do get some snow into DFW. Maybe something to watch?

[BrokenGlass]

Just asked Rick Mitchell, he said temps are behaving as expected. Doesn't seem encouraging to me.

I doubt that. My temps are at least two degrees cooler so far than every forecast I can find for this hour.

That said, for any icing, it’s got to be a bigger bust than that.

But is that a sign of the front arriving early, which is typical, rather than a sign of the air being colder than expected?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[EnnisTx]

DFW is running as cold as the coldest 15z SREF member and the colder members do get some snow into DFW. Maybe something to watch?

Looks like the typical wait and see storm. I'm not a meteorologist, but this seems like a surprise in the making for someone.

[Brent]

DFW is running as cold as the coldest 15z SREF member and the colder members do get some snow into DFW. Maybe something to watch?

Well one can hope but I wont believe it til i see it

[bubba hotep]

Ensembles lose some usefulness in the short range, but the typically under-dispersive GEFS shows a fair number of members with nice snow in DFW at 18z.

[SouthernMet]

Just asked Rick Mitchell, he said temps are behaving as expected. Doesn't seem encouraging to me.

I doubt that. My temps are at least two degrees cooler so far than every forecast I can find for this hour.

That said, for any icing, it’s got to be a bigger bust than that.

But is that a sign of the front arriving early, which is typical, rather than a sign of the air being colder than expected?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

No. The front arrived early this morning, this is cold air advection digging further south.

[HockeyTx82]

I'm liking my chances, best I've had in a few years. Hoping it's surprises all around

[Ntxw]

NAM trends

[rwfromkansas]

Stuck at 34.3 IMBY for the last hour.

[rwfromkansas]

While further south the NAM is also weaker. Don’t we want at least 546?

[opticsguy]

Witchita Falls now 5F colder than the 18Z NAM, and KFTW about 2 degrees colder.

[bubba hotep]

NAM trends

https://images2.imgbox.com/7c/ff/Bh3BWHHn_o.gif

00z 3K NAM gets freezing rain back into DFW, 1st run in a while to show that.

[rwfromkansas]

Tarrant added to advisory.