Texas Winter 2021-2022

[wxman57]

I'll say one thing about the possibility of frozen precip in the DFW area Saturday night - the problem will not be cold air. You'll have plenty of cold air from the surface up to the top of the troposphere. The problem will be very limited moisture in the cold air. It would be possible to generate small snowflakes over a narrow window if a patch of moisture passes overhead. Don't count on making a snowman.

[Haris]

NAM kinda shuts the door for anything more W it seems.

[Iceresistance]

NAM kinda shuts the door for anything more W it seems.

I did not trust that anyways, it could be having a hiccup.

Either Way, Springfield, MO (Where my Great-Grandparents are) got absolutely NAMed with 2 Feet of snow, very unlikely but yikes!

[txtwister78]

NAM kinda shuts the door for anything more W it seems.

NAM usually solid with temps (especially with shallow arctic air), but I've always looked at it as an outlier in terms of precip amounts/location beyond 48 hours. Definitely known for wild swings and the 18z run compared to its 12z is a good example of that. Not saying 18z won't verify, but definitely not the go to model for precip totals/location in my opinion beyond 48 hours out.

[Cpv17]

NAM kinda shuts the door for anything more W it seems.

NAM usually solid with temps (especially with shallow arctic air), but I've always looked at it as an outlier in terms of precip amounts/location beyond 48 hours. Definitely known for wild swings and the 18z run compared to its 12z is a good example of that. Not saying 18z won't verify, but definitely not the go to model for precip totals/location in my opinion beyond 48 hours out.

I use the HRRR for that.

[txtwister78]

NAM kinda shuts the door for anything more W it seems.

NAM usually solid with temps (especially with shallow arctic air), but I've always looked at it as an outlier in terms of precip amounts/location beyond 48 hours. Definitely known for wild swings and the 18z run compared to its 12z is a good example of that. Not saying 18z won't verify, but definitely not the go to model for precip totals/location in my opinion beyond 48 hours out.

I use the HRRR for that.

HRRR extended has its moments also, but definitely more reliable in my opinion than the NAM in terms of precip at least.

[PTrackerLA]

Euro ensembles are indicating a potentially MAJOR arctic outbreak east of the Rockies for the last week in January

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1481359787258482690

[Cpv17]

Still looking good:

[wxman57]

Euro ensembles are indicating a potentially MAJOR arctic outbreak east of the Rockies for the last week in January

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1481359787258482690

That's way east of the Rockies, mostly east of the Mississippi. Operational Euro doesn't even have below-zero temps for Chicago from this outbreak. Cold air is shifting east out of western Canada, focusing the cold into the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and northeast U.S. I don't see the really cold air moving south to Texas.

[Iceresistance]

Euro ensembles are indicating a potentially MAJOR arctic outbreak east of the Rockies for the last week in January

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1481359787258482690

That's way east of the Rockies, mostly east of the Mississippi. Operational Euro doesn't even have below-zero temps for Chicago from this outbreak. Cold air is shifting east out of western Canada, focusing the cold into the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and northeast U.S. I don't see the really cold air moving south to Texas.

It's still really far out, it has time to either go east even more & impact New England, or go west towards us!

[Texas Snow]

Within 300 hours usually means that the chance of something that occurs is higher than beyond 300 hours, but even then, the odds are still low.

300 hours is not statistically indicative of anything other than watching for subsequent patterns. Fantasyland.

[Cpv17]

Euro ensembles are indicating a potentially MAJOR arctic outbreak east of the Rockies for the last week in January

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1481359787258482690

That's way east of the Rockies, mostly east of the Mississippi. Operational Euro doesn't even have below-zero temps for Chicago from this outbreak. Cold air is shifting east out of western Canada, focusing the cold into the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and northeast U.S. I don't see the really cold air moving south to Texas.

The coldest air of the season should be headed towards us and yes that includes you in south Houston. Of course that is if this actually verifies.

[orangeblood]

Within 300 hours usually means that the chance of something that occurs is higher than beyond 300 hours, but even then, the odds are still low.

300 hours is not statistically indicative of anything other than watching for subsequent patterns. Fantasyland.

When it comes to Ensembles and them clustering around a similar solution even in the 10-15 day range, it is something quite significant. The exact details are impossible to forecast but this signal is eye catching and exactly what we’ve seen in years past prior to Arctic Outbreaks

[Iceresistance]

Euro ensembles are indicating a potentially MAJOR arctic outbreak east of the Rockies for the last week in January

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1481359787258482690

That's way east of the Rockies, mostly east of the Mississippi. Operational Euro doesn't even have below-zero temps for Chicago from this outbreak. Cold air is shifting east out of western Canada, focusing the cold into the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and northeast U.S. I don't see the really cold air moving south to Texas.

The coldest air of the season should be headed towards us and yes that includes you in south Houston. Of course that is if this actually verifies.

Also, it's over 10 days out, anything can change before it comes here, right now, it's the waiting game with the models.

[HockeyTx82]

Euro ensembles are indicating a potentially MAJOR arctic outbreak east of the Rockies for the last week in January

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1481359787258482690

That's way east of the Rockies, mostly east of the Mississippi. Operational Euro doesn't even have below-zero temps for Chicago from this outbreak. Cold air is shifting east out of western Canada, focusing the cold into the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and northeast U.S. I don't see the really cold air moving south to Texas.

I mean the Cowboys and Packers could play, ice bowl 2.0?

(It was a catch.......)

[PTrackerLA]

Euro ensembles are indicating a potentially MAJOR arctic outbreak east of the Rockies for the last week in January

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1481359787258482690

That's way east of the Rockies, mostly east of the Mississippi. Operational Euro doesn't even have below-zero temps for Chicago from this outbreak. Cold air is shifting east out of western Canada, focusing the cold into the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and northeast U.S. I don't see the really cold air moving south to Texas.

I didn't specify how far east . Eastern Texas and Louisiana would be would be in play for some arctic air in the 12z Euro ensembles. I would rather our coldest air hit before January is over this year, the Feb 2021 freeze decimated my landscaping as we typically start seeing signs of spring when that event hit. My sweet viburnum shrubs have just recovered from completely dying last year so another solid hit would be a good enough reason to remove them for good .

[Iceresistance]

18z GFS has the Weekend system trended more east compared to 12z

[HockeyTx82]

18z GFS has the Weekend system trended more east compared to 12z

That's it, I'm done. See you all over in the Spring thread.

[Iceresistance]

18z GFS has the Weekend system trended more east compared to 12z

That's it, I'm done. See you all over in the Spring thread.

The Center of the Vort is near OKC compared to near Woodward, OK, it may have a hiccup on the trends, let's wait & see on what the 0z runs says on that system.

[WinterMax]

NAM kinda shuts the door for anything more W it seems.

I did not trust that anyways, it could be having a hiccup.

Either Way, Springfield, MO (Where my Great-Grandparents are) got absolutely NAMed with 2 Feet of snow, very unlikely but yikes!

How old are you Ice, if you don't mind me asking?