Texas Winter 2013-2014

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

The 13Z HRRR is showing some freezing rain across north Texas, including the Metroplex overnight. It'll be interesting to see how it all pans out.

[dhweather]

Btw I was jogging this morning and the pond at the park is frozen, there is thin layer of ice except where the fountain comes out. I will post the pictures after work, will we see more frozen ponds, lakes, and others in the coming weeks?

Several ponds / small lakes in Rockwall/Heath have a lot of ice in them. While we moderate over the next week, ground temps are now much colder than before the last round. So that might compound any problems with wintry precip. That is, we won't have to wait long for the ground to freeze next time.

[newtotex]

The 13Z HRRR is showing some freezing rain across north Texas, including the Metroplex overnight. It'll be interesting to see how it all pans out.

Gah I really hope not. I have a 9 and a half hr drive tmrw

[orangeblood]

The 13Z HRRR is showing some freezing rain across north Texas, including the Metroplex overnight. It'll be interesting to see how it all pans out.

It's overestimating the snow coverage impact, depicting temps almost 8-10 degree too cold.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

The 13Z HRRR is showing some freezing rain across north Texas, including the Metroplex overnight. It'll be interesting to see how it all pans out.

It's overestimating the snow coverage impact, depicting temps almost 8-10 degree too cold.

Okay, that's good to know!

[gboudx]

Btw I was jogging this morning and the pond at the park is frozen, there is thin layer of ice except where the fountain comes out. I will post the pictures after work, will we see more frozen ponds, lakes, and others in the coming weeks?

Several ponds / small lakes in Rockwall/Heath have a lot of ice in them. While we moderate over the next week, ground temps are now much colder than before the last round. So that might compound any problems with wintry precip. That is, we won't have to wait long for the ground to freeze next time.

I drive hwy 78 into Wylie to/from work from 205 and it passes over the spillway from the Lake Lavon dam and flows into Ray Hubbard. There is a small concrete dam where an old rail line used to be. On the upper and lower water levels of the Trinity, separated by that dam, there is a thin layer of ice.

[Texas Snowman]

Tweets from Larry Cosgrove:

@LarryCosgrove: Concern growing for a major winter storm and follow-up Arctic shot December 13 - 16; Texas, Old South, Appalachia, Eastern Seaboard at risk.

[CaptinCrunch]

While we all look at and compare this December's arctic cold to the December's of 83 & 89, I'm wondering if we should be looking at a few analog years that are really starting to look similar to this Winter. The years 0f 63/64. 76/77, and 77/78, these where very cold winter across the entire nation and brought Texas 3 of it's biggest winter precip events.

So what say ye?

[TexasStorm]

Tweets from Larry Cosgrove:

@LarryCosgrove: Concern growing for a major winter storm and follow-up Arctic shot December 13 - 16; Texas, Old South, Appalachia, Eastern Seaboard at risk.

That tweet was from Dec 8. He got the winter storm for the Eastern Seaboard correct.

[cajungal]

What about SE Louisiana around New Orleans?

[orangeblood]

Tweets from Larry Cosgrove:

@LarryCosgrove: Concern growing for a major winter storm and follow-up Arctic shot December 13 - 16; Texas, Old South, Appalachia, Eastern Seaboard at risk.

That tweet was from Dec 8. He got the winter storm for the Eastern Seaboard correct.

Yeah, I have no idea where he could've inferred a winter storm for Texas or The South. This was a big New England storm all along

[Portastorm]

Tweets from Larry Cosgrove:

@LarryCosgrove: Concern growing for a major winter storm and follow-up Arctic shot December 13 - 16; Texas, Old South, Appalachia, Eastern Seaboard at risk.

That tweet was from Dec 8. He got the winter storm for the Eastern Seaboard correct.

Yeah, I have no idea where he could've inferred a winter storm for Texas or The South. This was a big New England storm all along

He made a tweet or two after this tweet where he clarified that the "Arctic" part was aimed more towards the northeast and that the parts of the south were "at risk" for potential severe weather.

[Portastorm]

I think it might be appropriate at this point for me to remind folks (or educate folks if they haven't seen this before) that a very smart meteorologist who happens to work out of Houston and happens to enjoy warm weather and cycling, told us this about computer model watching and potential Arctic outbreaks:

1) Don't pay too much attention to the surface weather predicted by these models. But do pay attention to the predicted 500mb flow and the upper air pattern.

2) Source region. Source region. Source region. Where is the air coming from and what do the temps look like in that area or what are they predicted to be.

Those two things will tell us a lot in the days ahead.

[dhweather]

New tweet from Joe B

Sub 0 cold much of NE Christmas morning.. colder further west on 23rd, 24th pic.twitter.com/76mXBQH1Uu

[srainhoutx]

I think it might be appropriate at this point for me to remind folks (or educate folks if they haven't seen this before) that a very smart meteorologist who happens to work out of Houston and happens to enjoy warm weather and cycling, told us this about computer model watching and potential Arctic outbreaks:

1) Don't pay too much attention to the surface weather predicted by these models. But do pay attention to the predicted 500mb flow and the upper air pattern.

2) Source region. Source region. Source region. Where is the air coming from and what do the temps look like in that area or what are they predicted to be.

Those two things will tell us a lot in the days ahead.

Portastorm, I will add that the ensembles will be the best tool at this extended range. The Operational guidance will have a great deal of difficulty with the heights shown over the Gulf of Alaska and any embedded short wave disturbances riding S into the base of the trough. We typically see some crazy operational runs as the GFS just depicted.

[Portastorm]

Thank you, sir. Yes ... fully agreed. We will see a lot of volatility in the GFS operational runs until the model settles in to a better grip on things.

[dhweather]

So Joe B is throwing around "potential for 83/89".

How confident are YOU that this will even be close to those record years?

I'm not. I'm thinking this next one will be just about like the last week, maybe a few degrees colder because of the snow cover to our north. And it is looking more like a glancing blow. Of course, we're over a week away, a lot will change.

[dhweather]

For what its worth, and that's not much, the 360 hour GFS (12Z) has Houston 30 degrees above normal. wxman57 will like that.

[Portastorm]

So Joe B is throwing around "potential for 83/89".

How confident are YOU that this will even be close to those record years?

I'm not. I'm thinking this next one will be just about like the last week, maybe a few degrees colder because of the snow cover to our north. And it is looking more like a glancing blow. Of course, we're over a week away, a lot will change.

Way too early to make a call. One cannot dismiss the potential, though. It is there. But "potential" does not mean it'll happen or even it's likely to happen. Comparisons to 83 and 89 get thrown around way too much in weather circles. Including here. And those years were historic, once-in-a-lifetime events and the comparisons never pan out because the events themselves were so unusual.

If the ensembles and op runs are showing it late this weekend ... then I think you can feel more confident about how things will play out.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

For what its worth, and that's not much, the 360 hour GFS (12Z) has Houston 30 degrees above normal. wxman57 will like that.

It's not getting to 90 degrees anytime soon.