Texas Winter 2014-2015

[iorange55]

Latest from WFAA Chief Meteorologist, Pete Delkus.

A mix of sleet and freezing rain is expected to develop WEST of Fort Worth after dark tonight. Here's a look at approximate timing. Now remember, a 1-2° temperature difference could change the forecast drastically!
Midnight: Wintry mix reaches western Denton & Tarrant County
3:00am: Wintry mix reaches western Collin & Dallas County
6:00am: Wintry mix possible across the entire DFW area and areas west
9:00am: Wintry mix possible across the entire DFW area and areas west
Noon: Wintry mix transitions to all cold rain as temperatures rise above freezing

Edit: Adding the latest from FOX 4's Evan Andrews. I think it will be interesting to look back on these updates and see how well they do.

Quick 2pm update based on newer data. Still no significant change in thinking for tonight-Thu AM. Precip (Rain/Ice) will start in earnest toward midnight or before to our west. Threat for freezing rain is still greatest from US380 area and North (McKinney-Little Elm-Flower Mound) and I-35W and West (Westlake-FTW-Benbrook). That's where temps may be under 30. Well north and west will be in mid 20s (Decatur-Jacksboro-Mineral Wells-Stephenville)...and significant icing is possible on roads and power lines.

Near DFW and into Dallas-Rockwall-Waxahachie, temps may be 31-32 but significant problems should not occur. Areas SE of that will be above freezing.

Once rain develops later tonight...it will get moderate into Thu AM...tapering off near or after noon to drizzle before picking up again Thu night into Friday. While temps will be cold in the 30s, they should get above freezing almost all areas EXCEPT well NW of Fort Worth where it may still be icy.

[TheProfessor]

3pm Temperature reports...

Mineral Wells, 29
Denten, 31
Alliance, 33
Meacham, 33
DFW, 35
Love Field, 36
Arlington, 36

Dew points remain in the lower 20's winds N at 12 WC 27

Temperatures are averaging 3-5 degrees below forecasted highs from Dallas westward, and closer to forecasts highs eastwards.

NWS is still showing 32 for Alliance and weatherbug has it at 30 degrees for Roanoke.

[Lagreeneyes03]

This is what I was referring to, his graphic (Delkus on FB) actually pushed the freeze line west of I-35 now.

[CaptinCrunch]

3pm Temperature reports...

Mineral Wells, 29
Denten, 31
Alliance, 33
Meacham, 33
DFW, 35
Love Field, 36
Arlington, 36

Dew points remain in the lower 20's winds N at 12 WC 27

Temperatures are averaging 3-5 degrees below forecasted highs from Dallas westward, and closer to forecasts highs eastwards.

NWS is still showing 32 for Alliance and weatherbug has it at 30 degrees for Roanoke.

I'm getting the hourly reports straight from NOAA weather radio. The voice of the NWS........lol

[TheProfessor]

Well Roanoke is actually a little bit east of 35. and do you mean west of 35 during the day today, because that was expected, or tonight, because if are temperature here does not go up it will already be below freezing slightly east of 35.

[iorange55]

:uarrow:

This is what I was referring to, his graphic actually pushed the freeze line west of I-35 now.

I generally don't focus on the graphics, especially the little lines they draw on them. It's just something quick for the viewers at home to look at. Reading the local forecasts, it looks like they don't expect this to be a major problem for the Metroplex, because they feel like temps will stay around freezing.

If they are correct and temps hover around 32 or 31, then we will not see a major ice event in the metro area. It's just a waiting game right now.

[dhweather]

It is 37 in Heath, steady temps, dew point is 28. Probably just a cold rain here, if anything.

[Ralph's Weather]

Pictures out of Midland already look bad and that is just from the freezing drizzle they have had so far as the freezing rain and sleet has not reached them yet.

[Texas Snowman]

Reading Fort Worth's forecast discussion below (see my highlights in red), is it me or is the prospect for a big time bust and a major winter weather event in the cards if the words "May be" and "Could Also" form the foundation of a forecast? This may very well be what actually occurs, but if it doesn't, major ice event is on the way IMO.

------
FXUS64 KFWD 312116
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
316 PM CST WED DEC 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY AS THE INFLUENCE OF A COMPLEX WESTERN
U.S. TROUGH AFFECTS MUCH OF TEXAS BEGINNING TONIGHT. WITH ARCTIC
AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...FREEZING AND FROZEN PRECIPITATION
WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 35.

WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR 8 COUNTIES IN
THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS WHERE UP TO ONE QUARTER INCH
OF FREEZING RAIN MAY FALL TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
IN THE WARNING AREA ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
DURING THE ONSET OF HEAVIER BANDED PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. PROGRESSIVELY LESSER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FURTHER EAST
FROM THE WARNING AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING FORECAST DURING THE PRECIPITATION. THE EXACT IMPACTS IN
ANY GIVEN LOCATION IN THE ADVISORY AND WARNING AREAS THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY WILL BE DETERMINED BY TEMPERATURES DURING THE ONSET OF
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AND THE LOCATION OF ANY SLEET SHOWERS THAT
SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.

WITH REGARD TO THE KEY WEATHER FEATURES...THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING INTO WESTERN ARIZONA WILL EJECT INTO THE
PLAINS WITH TWO DISTINCTIVE WAVES. THE FIRST WAVE OF ENERGY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND EASTERN COLORADO
ON THURSDAY AND WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WINTER WEATHER EVENT
TONIGHT. PLENTIFUL PACIFIC MOISTURE...STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION...AND SOME MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SOME CONVECTIVE BANDS /SHOWERS/ ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
IN THE AXIS OF FRONTOGENESIS TONIGHT WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE
CENTERED FROM THE EASTLAND AND BRECKENRIDGE AREAS EASTWARD INTO
THE DFW METROPLEX AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS WILL BE
ENHANCED LOCALLY NEAR ANY OF THE HEAVIER SLEET SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP IN AREAS WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE IN MOST AREAS DURING FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY THURSDAY AND WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO ALL LIQUID RAIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE TO ABOVE
FREEZING. THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
MODIFICATION OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS MAY BEACCELERATED IN TWO WAYS.
FIRST...THE RELATIVELY WARM RAINDROPS FALLING THROUGH THE
INCREASINGLY WARM AIR ABOVE THE FRONTAL INVERSION WILL EFFECTIVELY
TRANSFER HEAT TO THE NEAR SURFACE AIR. SECOND...THE RELEASE OF
LATENT HEATING BY THE PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION PROCESS IN THE
ABSENCE OF LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION COULD ALSO RESULT IN SLOWLY
RISING TEMPERATURES. BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE AT 32 OR HIGHER IN ALL AREAS...WITH THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES IN THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF 6-12 HOUR LULL IN THE RAIN THURSDAY EVENING
AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FIRST WAVE OF ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHWEST
U.S. SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE
PRIMARY SHORTWAVE / SECOND WAVE OF ENERGY / IS FORECAST TO EJECT
EASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS BY LATE FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD
RAIN WILL REDEVELOP IN ALL AREAS BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE RAINS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE SHORTWAVE EJECTS QUICKLY ACROSS OKLAHOMA.

A THIRD SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD BE WEAKER AND LACK SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK DRY...WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO AVERAGE BELOW
NORMAL.

[ndale]

Just my 2 cents worth for the night, even though the EWX graphics show the freezing rain line could be just a few miles to our north and west I realize a slight change in temp could cause ice in our area but I think the road and ground temps are warm enough to prevent any problems here.

[WeatherNewbie]

:uarrow:

This is what I was referring to, his graphic (Delkus on FB) actually pushed the freeze line west of I-35 now.

I think they are relying on two things. One, they are still hugging the models on the temperatures (ignoring the fact that the models missed the highs today by 3-5 degrees). Two, they are expecting the rain to bring the warm air down and help bring the temperatures up above freezing. I think they are going to be wrong on the first point, but the second point may happen and save the eastern half of the Metroplex from major ice.

[Ralph's Weather]

:uarrow:

This is what I was referring to, his graphic (Delkus on FB) actually pushed the freeze line west of I-35 now.

I think they are relying on two things. One, they are still hugging the models on the temperatures (ignoring the fact that the models missed the highs today by 3-5 degrees). Two, they are expecting the rain to bring the warm air down and help bring the temperatures up above freezing. I think they are going to be wrong on the first point, but the second point may happen and save the eastern half of the Metroplex from major ice.

A wrinkle in the rain bringing down warm air is in areas where it actually ends up as sleet as the process of forming the sleet will actually cool down the air.

[dhweather]

For the metroplex:





This is my opinion. Base your decisions on official sources such as the National Weather Service, State and Local officials.

[SouthernMet]

depends which side of metro. temps are 32-33 for 70% of tarrant county, with a wet bulb potential for 27-29.. + copious qpf + alot of this precip will fall overnight which is alot easier to accumulate than during radiational heating.

A good portion of tarrant county would be in what I would call the "danger zone" for significant ice accumulations, far east & se tarrant - not so much..

[dhweather]

From the FWD NWS

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vaKnDcrpk68[/youtube]

[ronyan]

That's always your opinion from what I've read.

I'm disappointed that we didn't get a stronger shot of arctic air here in SE TX. Hoping N TX gets plenty of winter weather tonight and tomorrow.

[WeatherNewbie]

:uarrow:

This is what I was referring to, his graphic (Delkus on FB) actually pushed the freeze line west of I-35 now.

I think they are relying on two things. One, they are still hugging the models on the temperatures (ignoring the fact that the models missed the highs today by 3-5 degrees). Two, they are expecting the rain to bring the warm air down and help bring the temperatures up above freezing. I think they are going to be wrong on the first point, but the second point may happen and save the eastern half of the Metroplex from major ice.

A wrinkle in the rain bringing down warm air is in areas where it actually ends up as sleet as the process of forming the sleet will actually cool down the air.

Yup, the severity of this for the Metroplex may very well come down to wet bulb cooling versus warm air advection.

[gpsnowman]

Home from work. Lots of posts to catch up on! I especially like the one about 3-5 inches of snow for the Metroplex. Does the Euro model normally do well in the 24-36 hour range? I hope it does.

[TheProfessor]

Unless the dew points rise a quite a bit I think there is a decent chance at wet bulbing in Denton County, Dew Points are around 20-23 degrees here. BTW NWS now has my high at 35 tomorrow, it was 38. But if wet bulbing does win out the Metroplex is in trouble, though it is probably too late to issue winter storm warnings now because people would go flooding into stores with not much time.

[aggiecutter]

Surprisingly, precipitation is already breaking out in parts of NE Texas. Luckily, the Ozark Shadow Effect will probably protect NE Texas from a catastrophic ice storm as 1-3" of QPF are forecast for this area.