Texas Winter 2016-2017

[ThunderSleetDreams]

That run and upper air pattern were gorgeous.

I'll worry about precip chances on Sunday/Monday. I told yall I was bringing cold air back with me. Mount up!

[Ntxw]

Canadian drops the hammer

[ThunderSleetDreams]

The whole run from Monday the 2nd through Hour 384 is a very favorable Pacific. I know its Hour 384 panel, but its showing a 585 dm ridge stacked right where we want it.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Canadian drops the hammer

Canadian keeps my house in Montgomery County below freezing from Hour 192 through 240 (and I'm guessing through the next few frames based on what I see)

[davidiowx]

Hope this comes to fruition because it's down right depressing how it feels outside right now

[vbhoutex]

Speaking of depressing here is a look back at Christmas day temps.

 https://twitter.com/SeverePlains/status/813786507555311616





Here's hoping the latest models are somewhat right on the cold coming next week!!

[ThunderSleetDreams]

On a side note, Princess Leia, Carrie Fisher, passed away this morning. 2016 can go out with a fiery, hellish enema.

[vbhoutex]

Canadian drops the hammer

Canadian keeps my house in Montgomery County below freezing from Hour 192 through 240 (and I'm guessing through the next few frames based on what I see)

A blend of the models appears to give us a real cold shot of air, but it appears to me the precip will be gone by the time it gets cold enough for winter type precips. Any way you look at it we could see some very cold(for SE TX) weather mid to late next week. And no I am not going to hold my breath waiting for it to happen!!

[Snowman67]

[quote="davidiowx"]Hope this comes to fruition because it's down right depressing how it feels outside right now[/quote]

Yup. I'm smoking some ribs today, and it feels like summer!

[Ntxw]

We'll know if the cold will come in about 48 hours. While surface fun maps are 7+ days, the catalyst for arctic air movement will be the reversal of the GOA trough into a GOA ridge by Thursday or Friday. It will essentially cut off the mixing of warmer maritime air

[South Texas Storms]

The 12z Euro sure looks interesting at the end of the run (day 10=January 6). Cold air is oozing southward across Texas with a developing winter storm. The run ends with freezing rain from San Angelo to Dallas with snow in the Panhandle.

[JayDT]

Well I see the trends are starting to go a bit better for us cold weather lovers.

[stormlover2013]

Still really far out....isn't a trend till about 4 days out, models have a hard time with this

[Ntxw]

I don't yet see a relaxation of the EPO or WPO from the ensembles. So when the cold comes, it will likely stick around a little longer than mid Dec. Climo also favors along with the warming ENSO

[Brent]

I hope so. Feels like a pattern waste otherwise

Warmer than forecast again today. Really getting old. I'm sure tomorrow will push 80 just because.

[Ntxw]

Yeah its been terrible with the worse timing. We live and die by the Pacific, and I can't believe I ignored the +EPO episode this past week. I thought it would at least be stormy but its been so moisture deprived and storms cutting up west..Pacific reversal by the weekend will be welcomed

[Brent]

FWD AFD:

Regardless of Sunday`s rain potential, all eyes will be watching
another arctic airmass organizing across western Canada and the
northern U.S. by Monday. There is actually very good model
agreement in the upper level pattern for the early and middle part
of next week, so confidence is high that this cold air is going to
pool across the northern Rockies and northern Great Plains. Unlike
the last arctic intrusion into Texas, which was propelled rapidly
southward by a strong and dynamic upper level trough, this arctic
airmass will be more bottled up as a positive tilt upper level
trough sits over the northern and northwestern U.S. This means
a west to east zonal jet stream will set up across the central
part of the country and fight the arctic airmass`s ability to
move southward. Even still, arctic air is very dense, and it`s
likely that a shallow layer of this air will make steady progress
southward into the region by Tuesday. The shallow nature of this
arctic intrusion will promote cloudy skies and possibly some light
post-frontal precipitation. Snow may be a hard sell since it is
likely to remain above freezing between 700 and 850 mb, but
there`s at least some low potential for icing or sleet by the
middle of next week. It`s too early to get any more specific than
to say a low wintry potential exists at this point. Either way
temperatures will be colder with lows in the 20s and 30s and
highs likely only in the 30s from mid to late next week.

[Ntxw]

On a side note, I have been feeling the Juniper Ashei all day today. Looks moderate to high...the hell from the hill country season has begun for me. Cedar fever is here...

[Brent]

GFS has 1-2 inches of snow in DFW next Wednesday

[Meteorcane]

Obviously still 6-7 days out so a lot can change, but the globals have latched on to the early week southern cold air surge. How cold it will get and how much/if any precip (also ptype is not obviously as even post-frontal precip could be sleet/freezing rain depending on the depth of the cold air layer) you all will get is hard to tell at this point, but confidence is definitely growing for the chance of below average temperatures sometime next week. It may be slow coming in, however, because the western trough looks to be very positively tilted initially.