Pacific Northwest Weather
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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andycottle
- Category 5
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:34 pm
- Location: Woodinville, Wa
W13...your welcome for me backing you up 
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You mentioned about you having snow this afternoon....well here in Woodinville, well, down at Molbaks anyways...we a little bit of sleet/tiny hail. only lasted a few minuites though. There was heavy snow in Redmond, acording to what my dad told me from when he drove through that area today. -- Andy
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You mentioned about you having snow this afternoon....well here in Woodinville, well, down at Molbaks anyways...we a little bit of sleet/tiny hail. only lasted a few minuites though. There was heavy snow in Redmond, acording to what my dad told me from when he drove through that area today. -- Andy
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andycottle
- Category 5
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:34 pm
- Location: Woodinville, Wa
Snow pics!
Here`s a few snow pics I took while at work(Molbaks) early this morning. As you can see from the pics...the snow was really coming down! My guess is the temp must of been right around 32, 33 degrees. None the less....very exciting for me! http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/ajc192004 ... .dir=/6292 -- Andy
Here`s a few snow pics I took while at work(Molbaks) early this morning. As you can see from the pics...the snow was really coming down! My guess is the temp must of been right around 32, 33 degrees. None the less....very exciting for me! http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/ajc192004 ... .dir=/6292 -- Andy
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andycottle
- Category 5
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:34 pm
- Location: Woodinville, Wa
Good evening all.
Viewing tonights 00z GFS, 15th through the 22nd, looks to be dry and mostly sunny...with the exception of maybe a weak system sliding down from Northen B.C and over us for 12z this coming Sunday. Best guess right now is just partly cloudy to overcast skies for that day. 850MB temps are about -6C tomorrow and warming to -3C for Wednesday and then to 0C by Friday. For the weekend through Tuesday 22nd, temps are back near -3C. 500MB voricity heights are 552DM tomorrow and going up to 558DM through the 18th, before going back down to 546DM on Saturday and 534DM on Sunday as a some what deep and cool trough appears to slide directly over us. ECMWF and Canadain Global also showing a trough over us for Sunday. -- Andy
Viewing tonights 00z GFS, 15th through the 22nd, looks to be dry and mostly sunny...with the exception of maybe a weak system sliding down from Northen B.C and over us for 12z this coming Sunday. Best guess right now is just partly cloudy to overcast skies for that day. 850MB temps are about -6C tomorrow and warming to -3C for Wednesday and then to 0C by Friday. For the weekend through Tuesday 22nd, temps are back near -3C. 500MB voricity heights are 552DM tomorrow and going up to 558DM through the 18th, before going back down to 546DM on Saturday and 534DM on Sunday as a some what deep and cool trough appears to slide directly over us. ECMWF and Canadain Global also showing a trough over us for Sunday. -- Andy
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snow_wizzard
- Category 4
- Posts: 994
- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 12:15 am
- Location: Covington, WA
Good call Cloud9! That was a good prediction for snow on Valentine's Day. We did get a little bit in Covington, but once again nothing like some places. I am getting a bit depressed about how we always get missed (at least this winter).
As for more use out of the snow tires. I am not really confident one way or the other. The latest GFS actually hints at some light snow this weekend, but I would like to see a few more good runs. I would have to imagine that March will have a window of opportunity, because the cold does seem to come back every few weeks this winter.
As for the hill and valley debate....Last week was a case where the east hill and Covington area got a lot colder than the Kent valley because the dew points were a lot lower up here. The air in the valley got saturated and did not allow really good cooling like we got up here. With a stronger offshore flow the valley gets colder because they are protected from the wind and the air is still very dry. In short it can go either way. You have just got to love this area. It can be 10 degrees different in the space of a mile or two under the proper conditions!
As for more use out of the snow tires. I am not really confident one way or the other. The latest GFS actually hints at some light snow this weekend, but I would like to see a few more good runs. I would have to imagine that March will have a window of opportunity, because the cold does seem to come back every few weeks this winter.
As for the hill and valley debate....Last week was a case where the east hill and Covington area got a lot colder than the Kent valley because the dew points were a lot lower up here. The air in the valley got saturated and did not allow really good cooling like we got up here. With a stronger offshore flow the valley gets colder because they are protected from the wind and the air is still very dry. In short it can go either way. You have just got to love this area. It can be 10 degrees different in the space of a mile or two under the proper conditions!
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snow_wizzard
- Category 4
- Posts: 994
- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 12:15 am
- Location: Covington, WA
Interesting...I just looked at the new Canadian run and it does lend some support to the GFS solution of showing a trough dropping in from Canada this weekend. This one shows the jetstream going out over the ocean at extreme southern BC and then hooking back in over northern Oregon. That is dangerous territory to be sure! That general theme does result is some of our big snowstroms, but it's way too early to jump on that yet.
That flow pattern results in the pressure gradient remaining north to south through WA. If a surface low were to track inland along the WA and OR border, things could get fun. Right now, I would say the airmass will get colder again this weekend and the offshore flow will turn to more of a N to NE wind pattern. Much more favorable for low level cold air to build up over the area.
I am beginning to think there is a chance that our monthly average could end up below 40 degrees this month. That would be the first month this decade (actually millenium) to have an average temp below 40. It is beyond my comprehension how we could go 5 years without a month even averaging below 40! It used to happen almost every winter.
That flow pattern results in the pressure gradient remaining north to south through WA. If a surface low were to track inland along the WA and OR border, things could get fun. Right now, I would say the airmass will get colder again this weekend and the offshore flow will turn to more of a N to NE wind pattern. Much more favorable for low level cold air to build up over the area.
I am beginning to think there is a chance that our monthly average could end up below 40 degrees this month. That would be the first month this decade (actually millenium) to have an average temp below 40. It is beyond my comprehension how we could go 5 years without a month even averaging below 40! It used to happen almost every winter.
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TT-SEA
2/15/05 LK Goodwin WA
6:17:34 AM CURRENT
Clear
Temperature (ºF) 27.3
Humidity (%) 91.2
Wind (mph) E 1.3
Daily Rain (") 0.00
Pressure ("Hg) 30.35
Dew Point: 25.1 ºF
Some of the current cold spots on this winter morning as of 6:20AM
Lakewood, WA 19.7 °F
Pe Ell, WA 20.2 °F
Dupont, WA 20.3 °F
Wishkah, WA 20.6 °F
6:17:34 AM CURRENT
Clear
Temperature (ºF) 27.3
Humidity (%) 91.2
Wind (mph) E 1.3
Daily Rain (") 0.00
Pressure ("Hg) 30.35
Dew Point: 25.1 ºF
Some of the current cold spots on this winter morning as of 6:20AM
Lakewood, WA 19.7 °F
Pe Ell, WA 20.2 °F
Dupont, WA 20.3 °F
Wishkah, WA 20.6 °F
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andycottle
- Category 5
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:34 pm
- Location: Woodinville, Wa
We have clear skies with a temp of 25, DP 24, and baro 30.21 and steady as of 7:08a.m. -- Andy-
snow_wizzard
- Category 4
- Posts: 994
- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 12:15 am
- Location: Covington, WA
We bottomed out at a nippy 22.6 degrees this morning. A hard freeze for sure with frozen ground and ice on the puddles.
The models are now clearly showing a reinforcement of cold air coming in by late Friday or early Saturday. Certainly shaping up to be a solid late winter cold snap! The weekend looks to have light NE winds (much lighter offshore gradient) which will serve to allow low level cold air to build up at the surface. It remains to be seen if we will be able to mix some moisture in with all of this cold air at some point.
This morning marked our 9th low of 25 or below for this season, the most since the winter of 1996 - 97, which had 13.
The models are now clearly showing a reinforcement of cold air coming in by late Friday or early Saturday. Certainly shaping up to be a solid late winter cold snap! The weekend looks to have light NE winds (much lighter offshore gradient) which will serve to allow low level cold air to build up at the surface. It remains to be seen if we will be able to mix some moisture in with all of this cold air at some point.
This morning marked our 9th low of 25 or below for this season, the most since the winter of 1996 - 97, which had 13.
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TT-SEA
Temperatures rebounding nicely... already mid-30's as of 9 a.m. and warming rapidly.
Some thoughts on the pattern looking at the latest models:
1) As stated before it will be beautiful through Friday with sunshine and offshore flow. Frosty mornings and increasingly warm afternoons.
2) The system for this coming weekend looks identical to last weekend. We are in quite a repetitive pattern. Cool and showery Saturday and then a convergence zone with some wet snow for places on Sunday. Then cool and dry with frosty mornings and warm, sunny afternoons again Monday-Wednesday of next week.
3) Then the pattern starts to shift. This has been a recurring theme now for several runs. It definitely looks like a shift to a warmer and wetter pattern for the last weekend in February. We will probably be in the warm sector with high snow levels and copious lowland rain. Temperatures should be very warm during the day AND the night.
4) After that I expect zonal flow to dominate. Probably warm right through the first week of March but much wetter. I still think eventually we will get a little colder and the mountains will be slammed. March should be quite wet for all areas. Still a chance around the second week of March for a heavy wet snow event... but it will melt quickly.
Thats my thoughts. Hold me to it. Nothing too exciting until the end of next week. And that will be warm rain!!
Some thoughts on the pattern looking at the latest models:
1) As stated before it will be beautiful through Friday with sunshine and offshore flow. Frosty mornings and increasingly warm afternoons.
2) The system for this coming weekend looks identical to last weekend. We are in quite a repetitive pattern. Cool and showery Saturday and then a convergence zone with some wet snow for places on Sunday. Then cool and dry with frosty mornings and warm, sunny afternoons again Monday-Wednesday of next week.
3) Then the pattern starts to shift. This has been a recurring theme now for several runs. It definitely looks like a shift to a warmer and wetter pattern for the last weekend in February. We will probably be in the warm sector with high snow levels and copious lowland rain. Temperatures should be very warm during the day AND the night.
4) After that I expect zonal flow to dominate. Probably warm right through the first week of March but much wetter. I still think eventually we will get a little colder and the mountains will be slammed. March should be quite wet for all areas. Still a chance around the second week of March for a heavy wet snow event... but it will melt quickly.
Thats my thoughts. Hold me to it. Nothing too exciting until the end of next week. And that will be warm rain!!
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TT-SEA
Look at the PNA monitor!! That really supports the thought of warmer and wetter by the end of next week with all of the ensemble members going stongly positive as we move towards March 1st.
That puts high pressure over the Western U.S. and we will be on the warm side of low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska. Warm, tropical air pumping north!!
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/new.pna_index_ensm.html
That puts high pressure over the Western U.S. and we will be on the warm side of low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska. Warm, tropical air pumping north!!
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/new.pna_index_ensm.html
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Brian_from_bellingham
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 75
- Joined: Wed Jan 12, 2005 10:57 am
- Location: Bellingham, WA
As long as the snow level does not get too high, that could be good news. If it is too high and melts what little snow we have, it would just reinforce the problems we may have this summer with high water bills, mandatory water conservation, and potentially devastating forest fires. Lets all hope Spring is not here yet.
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TT-SEA
O.K... my predicted high in North Bend today of 18 degrees was wrong. It is 43 degrees now and sunny with a light wind. Should get close to 50 degrees today.
Thus... making my prediction of -25 degrees tonight wrong as well. We only got down to +27 degrees last night and I expect the same tonight so I might be 52 degrees too cold.
Tomorrow's forecast of -2 degrees for high may also not work out. We will probably hit 54 degrees tomorrow so I might have been 56 degrees too cold.
I tried to jump on this radiational cooling bandwagon but the February sun is ruining it for me!!
O.K... enough sarcasm. What a stunningly beautiful day out there!!
Thus... making my prediction of -25 degrees tonight wrong as well. We only got down to +27 degrees last night and I expect the same tonight so I might be 52 degrees too cold.
Tomorrow's forecast of -2 degrees for high may also not work out. We will probably hit 54 degrees tomorrow so I might have been 56 degrees too cold.
I tried to jump on this radiational cooling bandwagon but the February sun is ruining it for me!!
O.K... enough sarcasm. What a stunningly beautiful day out there!!
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snow_wizzard
- Category 4
- Posts: 994
- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 12:15 am
- Location: Covington, WA
I saw that Arlington had an official low of 19 this morning, so my prediction of some lows in the teens has already panned out! 
At 2:00pm we are sitting at 44 with a dew point of 24 and a brisk NW wind blowing. A cool and crisp day for sure!
The GFS continues to insist that another cold trough will drop in from Canada this weekend. Three weekends in a row with a cold trough. Could there be a pattern emerging? If the GFS is correct this trough will once again drop 850mb temps to -7 or -8, so expect another batch of cold days. The amount of moisture continues to be a huge question mark with the weekend trough. Hopefully, we will know more about that aspect by tonight or tomorrow. At any rate, very cold again for most areas tonight. I expect some areas will be colder than last night. I stated last night that Covington and Maple Valley would likely have an east wind to inhibit cooling. At this point I am doubting that will happen. That wind will probably hold off until either very late tonight or early tomorrow. TT should see the east wind set in by midnight, but I am even unsure of that.
Before somebody else brings it up...I was wrong about Bellingham having a high in the 30s today. It would appear that the source of this cold is not the Fraser River Valley, because they are no colder than the Seattle area. I was not as sure about this prediction as the one for some lows in the teens...oh well.
At 2:00pm we are sitting at 44 with a dew point of 24 and a brisk NW wind blowing. A cool and crisp day for sure!
The GFS continues to insist that another cold trough will drop in from Canada this weekend. Three weekends in a row with a cold trough. Could there be a pattern emerging? If the GFS is correct this trough will once again drop 850mb temps to -7 or -8, so expect another batch of cold days. The amount of moisture continues to be a huge question mark with the weekend trough. Hopefully, we will know more about that aspect by tonight or tomorrow. At any rate, very cold again for most areas tonight. I expect some areas will be colder than last night. I stated last night that Covington and Maple Valley would likely have an east wind to inhibit cooling. At this point I am doubting that will happen. That wind will probably hold off until either very late tonight or early tomorrow. TT should see the east wind set in by midnight, but I am even unsure of that.
Before somebody else brings it up...I was wrong about Bellingham having a high in the 30s today. It would appear that the source of this cold is not the Fraser River Valley, because they are no colder than the Seattle area. I was not as sure about this prediction as the one for some lows in the teens...oh well.
Last edited by snow_wizzard on Tue Feb 15, 2005 5:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Another AWESOME day!!! These sunny days are alot better than rain/cold weather.
850 mb heights approach 3C by Thursday and Friday...so expect temperatures well into the 50s, if not 60s.
Another interesting note...there will be a minor high wind event through the cascade foothills starting tonight and tomorrow...wind gusts in excess of 45mph. Nothing major but something you'll definitely notice.
As for next weekend, another quick trough drops down from Canada but then back with a ridge starting Tuesday. This too-familiar pattern will just continue. Nothing brutally cold this weekend...but I'll be down in Phoenix so I don't care!!! lol.
Ahhhh...these weather days really put you in a good mood.
Anthony
46F with bright, blue skies and a light NW wind.
850 mb heights approach 3C by Thursday and Friday...so expect temperatures well into the 50s, if not 60s.
Another interesting note...there will be a minor high wind event through the cascade foothills starting tonight and tomorrow...wind gusts in excess of 45mph. Nothing major but something you'll definitely notice.
As for next weekend, another quick trough drops down from Canada but then back with a ridge starting Tuesday. This too-familiar pattern will just continue. Nothing brutally cold this weekend...but I'll be down in Phoenix so I don't care!!! lol.
Ahhhh...these weather days really put you in a good mood.
Anthony
46F with bright, blue skies and a light NW wind.
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~Brennan~ wrote:TT you said yourself that the PNA forecast is crap because it is only based on the 0z model of the GFS, so why are you using it to back up your statement if it is crap?
He only states that it is crap when the goes negative. When it turns positive then he is all over it, displaying it as one of his main sources of knowing what is coming our way in the next few weeks.
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Well we hit a whopping 40.2 degrees for a high after a low of 25.8 this morning!! Already down to 37.3 degrees!!! We still have frost in all shaded areas. I really didn't think I would be seeing upper 40's today.
2/15/05 LK Goodwin WA
3:38:28 PM CURRENT
Clear
Temperature (ºF) 37.3
Humidity (%) 66.3
Wind (mph) NW 0.9
Daily Rain (") 0.00
Pressure ("Hg) 30.34
Dew Point: 28.8 ºF
2/15/05 LK Goodwin WA
3:38:28 PM CURRENT
Clear
Temperature (ºF) 37.3
Humidity (%) 66.3
Wind (mph) NW 0.9
Daily Rain (") 0.00
Pressure ("Hg) 30.34
Dew Point: 28.8 ºF
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